pokerstars Game #12769663902: Tournament #64801118, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2007/10/21 - 21:45:03 (ET)
Table '64801118 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Stev0L_ (4961 in chips)
Seat 2: unluckybs (1177 in chips)
Seat 3: TeamMCO (3090 in chips)
Seat 8: Roothlus (4272 in chips)
Roothlus: posts small blind 75
Stev0L_: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Roothlus [Qh Qs]
Roothlus: raises 300 to 450
Stev0L_: raises 4511 to 4961 and is all-in
Hmmmmmm. The guy hasn't done anything out of line yet and seems like he knows what he's doing? What do you think he is shoving here? Steps can be pretty standard a good amount of the time and then some insane spot comes up like this.
Oh yea, the structure is 4th goes back to step 3. 3rd stays in step 4 and 1st and 2nd gets to move up to step 5.
I'm not 100% sure on the format as respects to how many move to step 5, but if it's top 2 like I think it is this is a call imo.
I think he is making a move to establish big stack early, I call
Agreed, most of the time hes not just shoving kk or aa like this, not to say that he Couldnt.
I call here for several reasons.
1) It's a satellite, so he is probably abusing the bubble and figures you'll fold a lot of hands.
2) Short stack is going to be in BB next hand, further depleting his stack. This makes it more likely that the villain is reraising you light since you'll be more cautious than usual and don't want to go out 4th.
3) SB vs BB, so he could be thinking you're raising ATC and is shoving to prevent that.
4) Your spot is not guaranteed. Only top two go on to the next step. Calling here and winning virtually guarantees you move on. Otherwise it'll be harder to secure a seat (esp if one of the other players eliminates the short stack).
5) QQ is a very strong hand and is ahead of everything except AA and KK.
I think its a call for a few reasons. 1, the 215 dollars is nothing to you, you can buy back in for no problem, 2 if you this hand, u r pretty much guarenteed to move onto the next step...
I think he has AK here tho.... so u r flippingggggg
Not easy, but a clear fold. You are still top 2 after the fold, with a clear skill advantage.
"not easy, but a clear fold" make up your mind, lol, cant be both.
These steps have some sick bubble play, that i dont think anyone knows the answer to. Someone make a comp. program we can use to calculate EV plz. kthx
He obv has suited A9, and an A will hit on the River. Lay it down.
doing some quick calculations
rooth is probably like 65-70% vs this guy's range
when he wins he qualifies like 90-95% of the time, but having the re entries to tournaments also offsets stuff a bit
but anyway, not taking into account the reentry, he is like 62% to qualify if he calls
if he doesnt call, he has like 3700 of the chips, so hes probably something like 55% to qualify
it looks like a call to me, the fact that he gets reentry just bumps that up even more
screams AK to me
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