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SIT N GO spot... Curious of peoples thoughts

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  1. knickadam55 knickadam55 is offline

    New York City, NY
    United States

    Posts: 46
    Joined: Mar 08

    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 2:01pm)

    This is a spot that i used to consider an easy fold as the insurance of making the money is more valuable than taking AJ verse any2... However If i double up here does it get me a victory enough to possibly warrant a call OR does the risk of losing here as a 63% to an overwhelming favorite and bubbling in 4th with no money make it an easy fold... By folding an guaranteeing 3rd place money a very high percentage of the time am i also limiting myself to basically just 3rd place money at best very often by folding. This is where i think a call may happen to be close to +ev. Or do i still have enough chips that i will get 3rd place money at worst and still win or get 2nd enough that a fold is clearly easy.

    By folding im left with 2500, blinds 300/600 im in the SB but also folding basically any 2 next hand in the SB to Dutchslugger in the BB with 6400ish chips.. So effectively a fold is leaving me with 2K chips, blinds 300/600, Dutch with 6400, Mrribas 4600... All thoughts welcome but please explain. Thanks
    pokerstars Game #32717430175: Tournament #194587136, $315+$20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2009/09/11 13:20:13 ET
    Table '194587136 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
    Seat 2: DutchSlugger (5330 in chips)
    Seat 3: jigga_wigga1 (265 in chips)
    Seat 8: MRIBAS (4720 in chips)
    Seat 9: knickadam55 (3185 in chips)
    DutchSlugger: posts the ante 50
    jigga_wigga1: posts the ante 50
    MRIBAS: posts the ante 50
    knickadam55: posts the ante 50
    MRIBAS: posts small blind 300
    knickadam55: posts big blind 600
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to knickadam55 [Jh Ah]
    DutchSlugger: raises 4680 to 5280 and is all-in
    jigga_wigga1: folds
    MRIBAS: folds
    knickadam55: ?
     
  2. Slingtownorbust Slingtownorbust is offline

    Naklo Nad Notecia
    Poland

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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 2:14pm) in reply to knickadam55

    really either calling or folding has its merits here.

    i'd say call especially if he's been bullying and shoving alot of the bubble. also, if you're confident that if you double up you can control the play from here on out do it.
  3. trippkirk trippkirk is offline

    Atlanta, GA
    United States

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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 2:23pm) in reply to knickadam55

    This cannot be close to a call
     
  4. RunLikeAChettah RunLikeAChettah is offline

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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 2:26pm) in reply to Slingtownorbust

    Guy is obv shoving ATC here, but with the guy not even having a BB I find a fold and atleast make the $. I always play for the win in these, but I think in this situation I fold for the cash. I hate 3rds as much as the next guy but when someone at the table is that short i dont mind squeezing into the money.
  5. inissint inissint is offline

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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 2:42pm) in reply to Slingtownorbust

     
    Originally Posted by Slingtownorbust View Post

    really either calling or folding has its merits here. Nash says to call with a9o+ and you most likely have his range of hands completly dominated.

    i'd say call especially if he's been bullying and shoving alot of the bubble. also, if you're confident that if you double up you can control the play from here on out do it.

    ok, i am about as familiar with nash ranges as adam grear is with vaginas...but i am 100000000000% sure nash does not say knickadam should call with a9o here, lol...i would almost guarantee it says aqo or even ako is a fold

    getting to adam's question, i hear where you're comin from in your thought process, but i think as short as the shorty is, you simply cannot even think of calling here...if he had something like triple the chips he had, i could maybe see callin here (cuz you are not guaranteed moneying yet AND you would have to keep folding, this guaranteeing yourself third at best usually)...but to bubble in this spot by calling off (not even with a pair for cryin out loud) is just disastrous imo...and i think you have plenty of chips to get second or win if you wait 1 or 2 hands and hope the shorty busts

    just my thoughts
     
  6. mastaofkings mastaofkings is offline

    Bloomington, IN
    United States

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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 2:43pm) in reply to RunLikeAChettah

    Could show up with a pocket pair here quite often so you might not have him dominated. I think I fold in this spot....but if he is really loose and shoving a lot of hands, you can call a lot wider.
  7. threeven threeven is offline

    Tucson, AZ
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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 2:46pm) in reply to knickadam55

    I don't know the math exactly but I would be amazed if AJ were remotely close to a profitable call here.

    I prob call anyway tho on principle
    2
  8. jalman1 jalman1 is offline

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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 2:49pm) in reply to mastaofkings

    Fold and its not rly close
    107 3
  9. Slingtownorbust Slingtownorbust is offline

    Naklo Nad Notecia
    Poland

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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 2:49pm) in reply to threeven

    yah nash i guess says overcall meaning if the small stack was all in to call here also maybe. but yah he says call QQ + here as played
  10. WildChild916 WildChild916 is offline

    Elk Grove, CA
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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 2:51pm) in reply to jalman1

     
    Originally Posted by jalman1 View Post

    Fold and its not rly close

    This.
  11. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

    Niagara Falls, NY
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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 3:01pm) in reply to knickadam55

    You'll need JJ to make a profitable call here if Dutch's shoving range is good. Nash will tell you QQ, but there is some merit to calling with a slightly -$EV hand to get a chip advantage and abuse the bubble for a few hands if jigga survives his next allin. My gut feeling with my familiarity with the player is that Dutch is shoving xx here, so a call with TT would be perfectly fine.

    Fold your AJs here. The chips you risk are worth more than twice as much as the chips you stand to gain, so you'll need to win this hand about 68-70% of the time to break even, and AJs is about 64% against xx, the largest range Dutch could have.
  12. knickadam55 knickadam55 is offline

    New York City, NY
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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 4:02pm) in reply to inissint

     
    Originally Posted by inissint View Post

    ok, i am about as familiar with nash ranges as adam grear is with vaginas...but i am 100000000000% sure nash does not say knickadam should call with a9o here, lol...i would almost guarantee it says aqo or even ako is a fold

    getting to adam's question, i hear where you're comin from in your thought process, but i think as short as the shorty is, you simply cannot even think of calling here...if he had something like triple the chips he had, i could maybe see callin here (cuz you are not guaranteed moneying yet AND you would have to keep folding, this guaranteeing yourself third at best usually)...but to bubble in this spot by calling off (not even with a pair for cryin out loud) is just disastrous imo...and i think you have plenty of chips to get second or win if you wait 1 or 2 hands and hope the shorty busts

    just my thoughts

    LOL Adam Grear/Vaginas.... I appreciate the responses and think you keyed on my main reason for thinking i must fold is HOW short he is. Im basically guaranteed money and to bubble in this spot is quite disasterous... I just think i used to look at this spot a little less openminded than i do and it is a little closer than a lot of people would think... But thhe thought of bubbling here makes me puke... I need to win the tourney a VERYYYYYYYYYY high percentage of the time after i double for it to be profitable verse the amount of times i bubble and that just isnt the case...
     
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  13. jetsjets1028 jetsjets1028 is offline

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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 4:26pm) in reply to knickadam55

    fold and give the man props for shoving knowing that u have to fold 90% + of the time

    having principles is -EV
  14. Richard Manuel Richard Manuel is offline

    Saint Paul, MN
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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 4:36pm) in reply to jetsjets1028

    easy fold. is dutch slugger any good? wasn't he a huge loser in the high stakes sngs?
  15. DBo Fo Sho DBo Fo Sho is offline Taking advantage of Official Threads

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    Sep 11th, 2009 (9/11/2009 5:02pm) in reply to knickadam55

    Fold. The stacks of 1,2, and 3 are too big here for the big stack to shove ATC here. Should the stacks be like 8k, then 2k etc, then id say u could call here, I just think hes a longer stronger in this spot than u give him credit for
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