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Small sample I know...variance coming...or is it?

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  1. Zee7 Zee7 is offline

    Newport News, VA
    United States

    Posts: 1,508
    Joined: Jan 06

    Apr 7th, 2006 (4/7/2006 5:48pm)

    I don't think the varience on $6.50 SnGs on stars is near as big as higher limits, agree?

    My last 27 SnGs (5 wins, 10 ITM)

    Buy-Ins: $184.00
    Rake: $15.40
    Winnings: $339.30

    Do you use rake when calculating ROI? If so, that's 170%. My longest no cash streak was 4, twice.

    My main question though is what I asked above...what do you think the various is and how hard will my crash be? I don't think the numbers above are indicative of a hot streak, at least the ITM number.

    Zman
  2. OhAaT OhAaT is offline

    El Paso, TX
    United States

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    Apr 7th, 2006 (4/7/2006 5:54pm) in reply to Zee7

    ahem.....variance, that is all
  3. Zee7 Zee7 is offline

    Newport News, VA
    United States

    Posts: 1,508
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    Apr 7th, 2006 (4/7/2006 5:56pm) in reply to Zee7

    *Note to self* Check back in w/P5's in 200 more SnGs.

    But you didn't answer the question...what IS the variance roughly. And more importantly...why does everyone think there MUST be a variance? What if I'm the 2nd coming? lol
    Thread Starter
  4. OhAaT OhAaT is offline

    El Paso, TX
    United States

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    Apr 7th, 2006 (4/7/2006 5:59pm) in reply to Zee7

    sorry i'm not the one to ask. I dabble in the sng's but play cash or mtt's most of the time.
  5. squeek2004 squeek2004 is offline

    Clemson, SC
    United States

    Posts: 235
    Joined: Jan 06

    Apr 7th, 2006 (4/7/2006 6:12pm) in reply to Zee7

    Your figures dont look right to me in my opinion. 5 wins and only 10 ITM would be 5 x $27 = $135 and assuming that your 10 ITM were 2nds that 10 x $16.20 = $162 which would mean youve only won $297. So im not quite sure where you got the "Winnings" number from. And then given the $297 max you made according to 5 Wins and 10 ITM you must subtract the buy in and the rake from that figure to get your net profit. Next 27 x $6 = 162 so not sure where you got the "buy-ins" figure from and your rake would only be $13.50 for 27 SNGs. So now you have $297 gross winnings - (buy ins + rake) = $121 net winnings. Now divide net winnings by (buy in + rake) to get your ROI which would be still a remarkable 69%. As far as ive read this number is unattainable. From what i hear 20-30% is a pretty good figure. Im out to prove that wrong with my SNG quest. Ive only got 100 under my belt at the $35+3 6 handed but a current ROI of 42%. GL with the rest of your SNGs and expect your ROI to drop but that is a pretty sick run your on.
  6. Zee7 Zee7 is offline

    Newport News, VA
    United States

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    Apr 7th, 2006 (4/7/2006 6:25pm) in reply to Zee7

    Sorry, let me clarify...USUALLY I play $6.50s but what skews this is a $25 win I had for $112.50. I also played an $11 once and one of the new 180 man. Subtracting that might make my numbers a bit more normal. My bad.

    **EDIT** take the big win out and i'm at 127% ROI.
    Thread Starter
  7. Adam Adam is offline Emperor

    Atlanta, GA
    United States

    Posts: 12,629
    Joined: Dec 04

    Apr 7th, 2006 (4/7/2006 6:45pm) in reply to Zee7

    If there wasn't a lot of variance, your ROI wouldn't be that high. Variance isn't always a negative thing
     
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