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SNG $6 Call or Fold Question

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  1. kwmi kwmi is offline

    Posts: 1
    Joined: Sep 08

    Sep 27th, 2008 (9/27/2008 10:36pm)

    Am I being results oriented when I say I think I should folded?

    *********** # 21 **************
    pokerstars Game #20749293392: Tournament #110807131, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2008/09/27 22:07:03 ET
    Table '110807131 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
    Seat 2: shotgun jo (1595 in chips)
    Seat 3: DrWife22 (4150 in chips)
    Seat 5: Aleister666 (3905 in chips)
    Seat 6: kaymil (1810 in chips)
    Seat 9: Billybucks2 (2040 in chips)
    Aleister666: posts small blind 75
    kaymil: posts big blind 150
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to kaymil [Ad Qh]
    Billybucks2: folds
    shotgun jo: folds
    DrWife22: calls 150
    Aleister666: raises 450 to 600
    kaymil: raises 1210 to 1810 and is all-in
    DrWife22: folds
    Aleister666: calls 1210
    *** FLOP *** [4d 8h 7s]
    *** TURN *** [4d 8h 7s] [8c]
    *** RIVER *** [4d 8h 7s 8c] [Ah]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    Aleister666: shows [As Kc] (two pair, Aces and Eights)
    kaymil: shows [Ad Qh] (two pair, Aces and Eights - lower kicker)
    Aleister666 collected 3770 from pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 3770 | Rake 0
    Board [4d 8h 7s 8c Ah]
    Seat 2: shotgun jo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 3: DrWife22 (button) folded before Flop
    Seat 5: Aleister666 (small blind) showed [As Kc] and won (3770) with two pair, Aces and Eights
    Seat 6: kaymil (big blind) showed [Ad Qh] and lost with two pair, Aces and Eights
    Seat 9: Billybucks2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
  2. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

    Rosemount, MN
    United States

    Posts: 7,980
    Joined: Jun 05

    Sep 27th, 2008 (9/27/2008 10:39pm) in reply to kwmi

    Assuming you don't have a read that Aleister is the tightest living human, this is standard. You've got 12 BB and will have to gamble at some point.
     
  3. NetFan44 NetFan44 is offline

    New York City, NY
    United States

    Posts: 4,344
    Joined: Jun 06

    Sep 27th, 2008 (9/27/2008 10:46pm) in reply to kwmi

    seems like a fold to me, since you're getting called 100% of the time and the chips you win don't mean as much as you being knocked out
  4. aad aad is offline

    Detroit, MI
    United States

    Posts: 2,986
    Joined: Feb 08

    Sep 27th, 2008 (9/27/2008 11:28pm) in reply to kwmi

    aaaaaaalllll iiiiiiiiiin! pretty standard situation.
  5. Randinho Randinho is offline

    Delta
    Canada

    Posts: 2,698
    Joined: Jul 06

    Sep 28th, 2008 (9/28/2008 12:50am) in reply to grapsfan

     
    Originally Posted by grapsfan View Post

    Assuming you don't have a read that Aleister is the tightest living human, this is standard. You've got 12 BB and will have to gamble at some point.

  6. Phi Phi is offline aka tennisee

    Posts: 16,250
    Joined: Mar 06

    Sep 28th, 2008 (9/28/2008 10:33am) in reply to NetFan44

     
    Originally Posted by NetFan44 View Post

    seems like a fold to me, since you're getting called 100% of the time and the chips you win don't mean as much as you being knocked out

    So being ahead of his range 90% of the time doesnt mean anything?

    This is a snap shove imo.
  7. NetFan44 NetFan44 is offline

    New York City, NY
    United States

    Posts: 4,344
    Joined: Jun 06

    Sep 28th, 2008 (9/28/2008 10:44am) in reply to Phi

    i'm just throwing the argument out there and nobody seems to actually want to show some analysis why it's a snap shove.

    what's your shoving range here phi? what's the villain's raising range?
  8. imanacehole111 imanacehole111 is offline

    Barbados

    Posts: 77
    Joined: Sep 07

    Sep 28th, 2008 (9/28/2008 11:17am) in reply to Phi

     
    Originally Posted by PhiAlphaMTSU View Post

     
    Originally Posted by NetFan44 View Post

    seems like a fold to me, since you're getting called 100% of the time and the chips you win don't mean as much as you being knocked out

    So being ahead of his range 90% of the time doesnt mean anything?

    This is a snap shove imo.

    \

    he's raising the other big stack and is commiting himself to the shortstack's 2k chips... His range is at least AJ+. If it were an MTT i'd go with it, but sng play is so much tighter. fold
  9. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
    Joined: Nov 05

    Sep 28th, 2008 (9/28/2008 4:03pm) in reply to kwmi

    It's a close decision, and certainly not the snap shove everyone is saying it is.

    If you fold, your equity is $7.66.

    <TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Chips</TH><TH>Prob 1st</TH><TH>Prob 2nd</TH><TH>Prob 3rd</TH><TH>Equity</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Hero
    </TD><TD>1660.000000</TD><TD>0.1230</TD><TD>0.1458</TD><TD>0.1836</TD><TD>$7.66</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 2
    </TD><TD>1595.000000</TD><TD>0.1181</TD><TD>0.1408</TD><TD>0.1787</TD><TD>$7.40</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 3
    </TD><TD>4000.000000</TD><TD>0.2963</TD><TD>0.2680</TD><TD>0.2169</TD><TD>$14.69</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 4
    </TD><TD>4205.000000</TD><TD>0.3115</TD><TD>0.2720</TD><TD>0.2129</TD><TD>$15.12</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 5
    </TD><TD>2040.000000</TD><TD>0.1511</TD><TD>0.1734</TD><TD>0.2079</TD><TD>$9.13</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    If you shove, I will assume you are called by Aleister, and let's say you win:

    <TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Chips</TH><TH>Prob 1st</TH><TH>Prob 2nd</TH><TH>Prob 3rd</TH><TH>Equity</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Hero
    </TD><TD>3755.000000</TD><TD>0.2781</TD><TD>0.2554</TD><TD>0.2169</TD><TD>$13.99</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 2
    </TD><TD>1595.000000</TD><TD>0.1181</TD><TD>0.1382</TD><TD>0.1703</TD><TD>$7.27</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 3
    </TD><TD>4000.000000</TD><TD>0.2963</TD><TD>0.2615</TD><TD>0.2132</TD><TD>$14.54</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 4
    </TD><TD>2110.000000</TD><TD>0.1563</TD><TD>0.1748</TD><TD>0.2015</TD><TD>$9.23</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 5
    </TD><TD>2040.000000</TD><TD>0.1511</TD><TD>0.1701</TD><TD>0.1980</TD><TD>$8.97</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    So you risk $7.66 to potentially win $6.33. To balance that risk you must win at least 54.75% of the time.

    (7.66/13.99 is 54.75%)

    <TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>AQo</TD><TD class=pptEV>54.75%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>1,973,826,252</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>259,528,068</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>AA-22,AK-A8,KQ-KJ,KTs-K8s,QJs-QTs</TD><TD class=pptEV>45.25%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>1,609,055,856</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>259,528,068</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    AQo is exactly 54.75% to win against the range of {22+, A8+, KJ+, K8s+, QTs+}.

    If you think he is raising that wide, or wider, then your shove is good.

    If not, this is a fold.
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