Am I being results oriented when I say I think I should folded?

*********** # 21 **************
PokerStars Game #20749293392: Tournament #110807131, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2008/09/27 22:07:03 ET
Table '110807131 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: shotgun jo (1595 in chips)
Seat 3: DrWife22 (4150 in chips)
Seat 5: Aleister666 (3905 in chips)
Seat 6: kaymil (1810 in chips)
Seat 9: Billybucks2 (2040 in chips)
Aleister666: posts small blind 75
kaymil: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kaymil [Ad Qh]
Billybucks2: folds
shotgun jo: folds
DrWife22: calls 150
Aleister666: raises 450 to 600
kaymil: raises 1210 to 1810 and is all-in
DrWife22: folds
Aleister666: calls 1210
*** FLOP *** [4d 8h 7s]
*** TURN *** [4d 8h 7s] [8c]
*** RIVER *** [4d 8h 7s 8c] [Ah]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Aleister666: shows [As Kc] (two pair, Aces and Eights)
kaymil: shows [Ad Qh] (two pair, Aces and Eights - lower kicker)
Aleister666 collected 3770 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3770 | Rake 0
Board [4d 8h 7s 8c Ah]
Seat 2: shotgun jo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: DrWife22 (button) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Aleister666 (small blind) showed [As Kc] and won (3770) with two pair, Aces and Eights
Seat 6: kaymil (big blind) showed [Ad Qh] and lost with two pair, Aces and Eights
Seat 9: Billybucks2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

seems like a fold to me, since you're getting called 100% of the time and the chips you win don't mean as much as you being knocked out

 

Originally Posted by grapsfan

Assuming you don't have a read that Aleister is the tightest living human, this is standard. You've got 12 BB and will have to gamble at some point.

i'm just throwing the argument out there and nobody seems to actually want to show some analysis why it's a snap shove.

what's your shoving range here phi? what's the villain's raising range?

It's a close decision, and certainly not the snap shove everyone is saying it is.

If you fold, your equity is $7.66.

<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Chips</TH><TH>Prob 1st</TH><TH>Prob 2nd</TH><TH>Prob 3rd</TH><TH>Equity</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Hero
</TD><TD>1660.000000</TD><TD>0.1230</TD><TD>0.1458</TD><TD>0.1836</TD><TD>$7.66</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 2
</TD><TD>1595.000000</TD><TD>0.1181</TD><TD>0.1408</TD><TD>0.1787</TD><TD>$7.40</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 3
</TD><TD>4000.000000</TD><TD>0.2963</TD><TD>0.2680</TD><TD>0.2169</TD><TD>$14.69</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 4
</TD><TD>4205.000000</TD><TD>0.3115</TD><TD>0.2720</TD><TD>0.2129</TD><TD>$15.12</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 5
</TD><TD>2040.000000</TD><TD>0.1511</TD><TD>0.1734</TD><TD>0.2079</TD><TD>$9.13</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

If you shove, I will assume you are called by Aleister, and let's say you win:

<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Chips</TH><TH>Prob 1st</TH><TH>Prob 2nd</TH><TH>Prob 3rd</TH><TH>Equity</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Hero
</TD><TD>3755.000000</TD><TD>0.2781</TD><TD>0.2554</TD><TD>0.2169</TD><TD>$13.99</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 2
</TD><TD>1595.000000</TD><TD>0.1181</TD><TD>0.1382</TD><TD>0.1703</TD><TD>$7.27</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 3
</TD><TD>4000.000000</TD><TD>0.2963</TD><TD>0.2615</TD><TD>0.2132</TD><TD>$14.54</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 4
</TD><TD>2110.000000</TD><TD>0.1563</TD><TD>0.1748</TD><TD>0.2015</TD><TD>$9.23</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 5
</TD><TD>2040.000000</TD><TD>0.1511</TD><TD>0.1701</TD><TD>0.1980</TD><TD>$8.97</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
So you risk $7.66 to potentially win $6.33. To balance that risk you must win at least 54.75% of the time.

(7.66/13.99 is 54.75%)

<TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>AQo</TD><TD class=pptEV>54.75%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>1,973,826,252</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>259,528,068</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>AA-22,AK-A8,KQ-KJ,KTs-K8s,QJs-QTs</TD><TD class=pptEV>45.25%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>1,609,055,856</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>259,528,068</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
AQo is exactly 54.75% to win against the range of {22+, A8+, KJ+, K8s+, QTs+}.

If you think he is raising that wide, or wider, then your shove is good.

If not, this is a fold.