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SnG Bubble

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  1. pconroy pconroy is offline

    Posts: 12
    Joined: Oct 08

    Jan 29th, 2009 (1/29/2009 12:18pm)

    Hi guys, quick question.
    $27 SnG on stars. Its the bubble. UTG 2000 Button 6000 SB 3500 BB (me)2000.
    Blinds 100/200 a25. The big stack is a solid regular and is pushing almost every hand.
    I wake up in BB with 10 10. Big stack pushes on button. I call.
    Good call????
    Thanks.
    Paul.

    ps. I lost to a river flush. Button had J2h
  2. andressoprano andressoprano is offline whaddya think of my game?

    Anchorage, AK
    United States

    Posts: 5,224
    Joined: Jan 07

    Jan 29th, 2009 (1/29/2009 12:22pm) in reply to pconroy

    Good call, UL
     1
  3. buffyslayer1 buffyslayer1 is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 826
    Joined: Mar 08

    Jan 29th, 2009 (1/29/2009 12:26pm) in reply to pconroy

    if you put him on a really wide range, as you should cos his a reg. Then I think this is a good call. 99 may well be a fold, I havent run it through wiz...

    If his not a reg though, or relatively tight this may be a fold.
     
  4. Chock is RockIN Chock is RockIN is offline

    Minnetonka, MN
    United States

    Posts: 172
    Joined: Jan 07

    Jan 29th, 2009 (1/29/2009 12:26pm) in reply to andressoprano

    haha
  5. lind0 lind0 is offline

    Vancouver
    Canada

    Posts: 672
    Joined: Jan 06

    Jan 29th, 2009 (1/29/2009 1:05pm) in reply to Chock is RockIN

    I think it's probably a call. There's a time to fold 10's on the bubble, but I don't think this is it. When there's a very short stack, and you're a medium or big stack, then you don't want to risk all your chips. If you can pretty much fold your way into the money, then it's correct to fold almost anything and let the shorty bust.

    When you don't have that advantage though, and you're the short stack or tied for it, then it becomes correct to call. I've been proven wrong many times by the math nerds though, so take my advice for what it's worth.
  6. The Lab Rat The Lab Rat is offline

    Costa Rica

    Posts: 2,070
    Joined: Apr 08

    Jan 29th, 2009 (1/29/2009 1:12pm) in reply to pconroy

    Imo it's an easy fist pump call. I think a good calling range in this spot is AJo+ ATs+ and 88+ maybe 77 since you said he's been shoving almost any 2 abusing the bubble. Im not a fan of the kq call tho. His range is sooooo wide in this spot. You gotta be willing to gamble and not just play to make the money. I can see how you might tighten up your calling range if your BR is lower in comparison to the buyin. if you double up here you're slight chip leader. Just got unlucky man
    309 
  7. Bama1988 Bama1988 is offline

    Posts: 70
    Joined: Sep 08

    Jan 29th, 2009 (1/29/2009 1:24pm) in reply to pconroy

     
    Originally Posted by pconroy View Post

    Hi guys, quick question.
    $27 SnG on stars. Its the bubble. UTG 2000 Button 6000 SB 3500 BB (me)2000.
    Blinds 100/200 a25. The big stack is a solid regular and is pushing almost every hand.
    I wake up in BB with 10 10. Big stack pushes on button. I call.
    Good call????
    Thanks.
    Paul.

    ps. I lost to a river flush. Button had J2h

    this is a call all day everyday
  8. pharreal87 pharreal87 is offline

    Posts: 3,589
    Joined: Apr 08

    Jan 29th, 2009 (1/29/2009 1:48pm) in reply to Bama1988

     
    Originally Posted by Bama1988 View Post

     
    Originally Posted by pconroy View Post

    Hi guys, quick question.
    $27 SnG on stars. Its the bubble. UTG 2000 Button 6000 SB 3500 BB (me)2000.
    Blinds 100/200 a25. The big stack is a solid regular and is pushing almost every hand.
    I wake up in BB with 10 10. Big stack pushes on button. I call.
    Good call????
    Thanks.
    Paul.

    ps. I lost to a river flush. Button had J2h

    this is a call all day everyday

  9. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
    Joined: Nov 05

    Jan 29th, 2009 (1/29/2009 3:46pm) in reply to pconroy

    This is a call. Let me give you an idea of what hands to play in this situation by using some math and some ICM with this ICM calculator: http://www.poker-tools-online.com/icm.html

    Let's say you fold:

    <TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Chips</TH><TH>Prob 1st</TH><TH>Prob 2nd</TH><TH>Prob 3rd</TH><TH>Equity</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 1
    </TD><TD>6375.000000</TD><TD>0.4722</TD><TD>0.3098</TD><TD>0.1632</TD><TD>$81.38</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 2
    </TD><TD>1975.000000</TD><TD>0.1463</TD><TD>0.2018</TD><TD>0.2898</TD><TD>$43.12</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 3
    </TD><TD>3375.000000</TD><TD>0.2500</TD><TD>0.3044</TD><TD>0.2736</TD><TD>$60.98</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Hero
    </TD><TD>1775.000000</TD><TD>0.1315</TD><TD>0.1840</TD><TD>0.2733</TD><TD>$39.51</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    ...your equity is $39.51. What that means to you is that on average, your prize will be $39.51 and, by extension, your 1775 chips that you have left are worth $39.51.

    Okay, so if you call and lose, you'll lose $39.51 because 4th = $0.

    If you call and win:

    <TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Chips</TH><TH>Prob 1st</TH><TH>Prob 2nd</TH><TH>Prob 3rd</TH><TH>Equity</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 1
    </TD><TD>5100.000000</TD><TD>0.3517</TD><TD>0.2985</TD><TD>0.2279</TD><TD>$69.97</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 2
    </TD><TD>1975.000000</TD><TD>0.1362</TD><TD>0.1680</TD><TD>0.2315</TD><TD>$37.08</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 3
    </TD><TD>3375.000000</TD><TD>0.2328</TD><TD>0.2532</TD><TD>0.2790</TD><TD>$55.83</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Hero
    </TD><TD>4050.000000</TD><TD>0.2793</TD><TD>0.2803</TD><TD>0.2617</TD><TD>$62.12</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    ...your equity goes up to $62.12. (a gain of $23.61)

    So you risk $39.51 for a possible gain of $23.61.

    As you can see, you were very correct to be a little careful with what hands you should call with.

    In this case, since 39.51/62.12 = 63.6%, you actually need a hand that will win 63.6% of the time just to break even.

    If you are certain he is shoving "almost every hand", then assuming he pushes 2/3 of the time:

    <TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>Top 2/3 of all hands</TD><TD class=pptEV>29.15%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>2,410,958,544</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>58,974,216</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>TT</TD><TD class=pptEV>70.85%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>5,903,233,800</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>58,974,216</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    ...you have a 7% edge (over the 63.6% you need), and should call.

    If he is shoving 67%, you can profitably call with 88+, AKo, AQs+.

    If you'd like to play with his range some to get an idea of what to call with against certain ranges, use this tool:

    http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...+here&e=64

    In order to make TT a mathematical fold here, he would have to be shoving about 1/4 of the time.

    <TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>25%</TD><TD class=pptEV>38.00%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>1,114,056,372</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>28,182,972</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>TT</TD><TD class=pptEV>62.00%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>1,826,895,792</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>28,182,972</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    Here's another link to screw with:

    http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...amp;h4=&h5=

    Hope that's helpful!

    Jen
  10. daphishermen daphishermen is offline

    Hoboken, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 427
    Joined: Jan 07

    Jan 29th, 2009 (1/29/2009 3:53pm) in reply to Jennifear

     
    Originally Posted by Jennifear View Post

    Hope that's helpful!

    Jen

    Lol, "hope that's helpful"
    As if it isn't an 100% perfect answer!
     
  11. pikappraider78 pikappraider78 is offline

    Gainesville, FL
    United States

    Posts: 2,039
    Joined: Aug 07

    Jan 29th, 2009 (1/29/2009 4:41pm) in reply to daphishermen

    this is a snap call
     
  12. pconroy pconroy is offline

    Posts: 12
    Joined: Oct 08

    Jan 30th, 2009 (1/30/2009 1:37am) in reply to daphishermen

    Thanks everyone.
    Makes me feel a little better.
    I'm running so bad it's untrue. 15 buy-in downswing.
    WHEN WILL IT END!!!!
    LOL
    Thread Starter
  13. quadedout quadedout is offline

    Orlando, FL
    United States

    Posts: 37
    Joined: Oct 08

    Jan 30th, 2009 (1/30/2009 11:17am) in reply to pconroy

    Just UL. You can live by the river, die by the river.. Keep playin
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