Clear fold. Nash says that you need kings here, and I like that range for you.

<TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TH width=40>PU</TH><TH width=40>CA</TH><TH width=40>OC</TH><TH>Range</TH></TR><TR><TD>CO</TD><TD><TD><TD>31.2%, 22+ A2s+ A3o+ K6s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 87s 76s <<what WACKO should be shoving</TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BU</TD><TD><TD>3.8%, TT+ AQs+ AKo <<T-MONEY's proper calling range</TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>0.9%, KK+ <<your overcall range </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Even though both of your opponents are likely looser than the above ranges, they are very very close in chipcount. The rule for this situation is that if Player A shoves, and Player B calls, and A and B are close in chips, C your way out of the hand.

Unless your opponents tie, you get a really fat equity boost here. Either the bubble will break (most likely because the raiser, who has the wider of the two ranges, and is therefore most likely to lose, has the shorter stack), or T-MONEY will drop to 600 chips. In either event, you are nearly assured of a cash. To call here, you need a hand that is good enough to forfeit this equity boost, as well as beat both hands. The only reason you can call with KK, and not ONLY AA is because you have WACKO covered.

In addition, WACKO's loose range doesn't change the value of your AKo too much. AKo holds much of it's value against tighter ranges:

<TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>AKo</TD><TD class=pptEV>65.32%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>16,227,502,536</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>428,254,068</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>100%</TD><TD class=pptEV>34.68%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>8,515,112,196</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>428,254,068</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>AKo</TD><TD class=pptEV>62.20%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>3,364,270,668</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>275,649,204</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>25%</TD><TD class=pptEV>37.80%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>1,990,135,680</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>275,649,204</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

In general, on the bubble of a SNG, if player A shoves, and player B calls, and they are close in chips, if you are player C, C your way out of the hand. You are nearly guaranteed a cash, unless they tie.

At risk of being wrong I'm gonna try to answer anyway.
From what I know, these blinds are so high that I'm not sure you can wait much longer for a hand this strong. Thing is we have a crazy player over half-in already and someone has decided to look him up. I think this still has to be a fold only because whoever loses the pot here is either crippled or out altogether.

We know the range of UTG is really wide and for all we know the reraiser has been paying attention, but he still has to have something solid here. Any PP has us beat and who know what the other guy might turn up. Also, though the chances are remote, we still have a player to act that can join the party... wouldn't that be a mess!

Maybe I'm missing something, but I think I fold.

Jen:

This is a spot many people struggles with. Very nice post and explanation on why this is a clear fold, although I'd let people make their inputs before posting yours IMO.

As much as I hate folding a strong hand against a total maniac and another player who has a pretty wide range, I can't really argue against the math.

Fold to cash.

 

Originally Posted by andressoprano

Jen:

This is a spot many people struggles with. Very nice post and explanation on why this is a clear fold, although I'd let people make their inputs before posting yours IMO.

You are probably right andres... was just busy today so i might not have been able to post my response til tomorrow.

I'm not done though... going to post further explanation later.

 

Originally Posted by Jennifear

 

Originally Posted by andressoprano

Jen:

This is a spot many people struggles with. Very nice post and explanation on why this is a clear fold, although I'd let people make their inputs before posting yours IMO.

You are probably right andres... was just busy today so i might not have been able to post my response til tomorrow.

I'm not done though... going to post further explanation later.

You busy? No fkng way!!!!!!!!! I can't believe that.

WE ALL <3 JEN

 

Originally Posted by Camstock

 

Originally Posted by j_farah

Fold to cash.

I think this is basically the answer. At 250/500 it's shove monkey poker anyway so if your confident in your push/shove game, you take away your advantage by overcalling here in what is at best a flip in most cases.

I have never agreed with the concept of "monkey-poker", or whatever expression is used, when it comes to push-fold. It does takes a lot of skill and practice to master and understand this aspect of the game, and is basically what separates winners from losers in SnG's.

 

Originally Posted by AFink93

This is why I cant play SNG's. More times than not you have the best hand here and calling and winning pretty much locks this up for you to win the whole thing.

It's been tough to get through my thick head - but, here what I say in reply...

The fold comes from the foundational fact that in tournament play the chips you stand to gain are less valuable then the chips you could lose, a fact that rests squarely upon the Law of Diminishing Returns, or if one is into economics, the Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility.

In easyspeak, the law of Diminishing Marginal Utility is elucidated plainly enough when comparing a homeless dude and Bill Gates. Ten bucks to the homeless man is worth more to him than ten bucks to Mr. Gates. This is because the ten bucks to the homeless man represents value that is life sustaining. With it he can eat for another few days. To Bill Gates, this represents nothing but toilet paper, or even a nuisance (since small bills are prolly a hindrance more than anything else for him). Think about that, the same amount of money represents life sustaining value to one person and mere trash to another. Massive difference, to be sure - and this is because diminishing marginal utility. Utility can be thought of as the "benefit" one would derive from a good/commodity or service. Marginal utility, is the "benefit" one would receive from the next good he receives. Very important concept in economics. Like marginal tax rate...the rate you get taxed on the next dollar you make. Overall the LDMU is like saying the more I got, the less I benefit I get from the next thing I get.

Now, applying this to our current situation...The ten thousandth chip you would have in your stack is worth much less to you than the first chip in your stack, since that first chip represents life sustaining value, your tournament life. Lose that, and you are out. That fact is very significant.

So, it stands to reason then, that there will arise many a situation in which a call is +cEV but -$EV. That is, there are calls you may make that will win you chips if the situation is iterated a million times (i.e. run over and over a bunch of times to get the true EV of the move) but will lose you equity.

I haven't run numbers or anything since there are handy dandy calculators that will do this for you. It is enough to understand the concept thoroughly, so you know what is going into the calculations. That way, you understand the why behind the answer that the OP needs KK to overcall here and why AK is unprofitable overcall - but you can let a machine do the manual number crunching...

Jennifear, much love for the teachings :-)

Fold...the tougher question would be would you call with KK? If you put both players on XX (which the second guy couldn't possibly be that loose), should you fold a monster like KK or AA? I think you might call those hands as the equity would then make up for the times you bust but I'm not sure. Can someone run that for me?

Seat 2: WACKO (3,145)
Seat 3: T-MONEY (3,725)
Seat 4: Hero (3,280)
Seat 6: MysterySoldier (3,350)
Hero posts the small blind of 250
MysterySoldier posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ac Kd]
WACKO raises to 1,750
T-MONEY raises to 3,725, and is all in

OK I dont have the ability to handle all these diminishing value etc stuff...
they way i read the hand and how I would play it is as such

1- if WACKO is way loose aggresive he can be raising here with a wide range. The fact that he raises to over half his stack makes me think he is a poor player when he has just over 6 big blinds. I am not afraid of his hand if I can depend on his range matching his image

2- I have WACKO covered ergo if I beat him in the hand and still lose to T-Money who shoved slightly more than 7x in. This would assure me 3rd if I lose to his play

3- The calling range for T-money IMO would be somewhere between 88+ and AJ+

4- I'm fearing 2 hands hear from T-Money and so be it im getting it in to play for the win but I have the safety net of having WACKO out chipped

5- Once again this probably doesnt go along with the math etc etc and for the record I dont fold QQ here either.

Am I an Idiot????

ok I can see that in the fact that if I call then Wacko can fold I suppose in hopes that I lose and he eeeeks into 3rd.

however I still dont see myself folding AK in this spot and In all honesty I dont think you would before punching a bunch of numbers into some calculation. (I could be wrong here)

I might request time but in the end I think im making the call as I want to win this thing not finish 3rd or 2nd

 

Originally Posted by Dissident

I might request time but in the end I think im making the call as I want to win this thing not finish 3rd or 2nd

As an SNG player you should not be thinking of winning the tournament as your goal, you should be thinking of finding the play that makes you the most money in the long run.

The bubble of an MTT is often the time to make big plays so you can "play to win," and doing so will often be the highest EV approach. The bubble of an SNG, notsomuch. It is a place where solid fundamental play based on knowledge of ICM will make you the most money - and in some cases, like this one, "playing to win" is a money loser.

 

Originally Posted by paz5050

JEN JEN JEN JEN JEN JEN JEN JEN JEN JEN JEN JEN JEN JEN JEN JEN.....

you're the bomb, love your posts, date meeeeeeeeeeeeeee

You must have missed my previous post... she only has eyes for one man...

 

Originally Posted by Dissident

ok I can see that in the fact that if I call then Wacko can fold I suppose in hopes that I lose and he eeeeks into 3rd.

however I still dont see myself folding AK in this spot and In all honesty I dont think you would before punching a bunch of numbers into some calculation. (I could be wrong here)

I might request time but in the end I think im making the call as I want to win this thing not finish 3rd or 2nd

She would certainly fold there. I would have folded without even hitting time honestly...my eyes would get big and I'd muck and laugh at what an idiot Wacko is. When you play enough sngs you'll realize this is an easy fold actually.

My guess is that a call costs us $2.00 (ish). What do I win if I am correct?