Check out our brand new Local Poker Communities! Get updates and interact with poker players in your area.
Visit the United States Poker Community | Visit the California Poker Community | Read more about the Launch of P5s Local

SnG Guru's HELP! Donkey move or Donkey Call CANT SLEEP!

Reply to Thread
  1. Transistor1 Transistor1 is offline

    London
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 3
    Joined: Feb 08

    Jul 22nd, 2009 (7/22/2009 4:53pm)

    I class myself as not a bad SnG player, I kill the steps on Poker Stars and hold my own give or take a few percent on the STT's, I'm not saying I am a winner but I have a lot of time for the game and study SnG strategy on a regular training site.
    I played this hand on the bubble in a $16 STT on Stars.

    pokerstars Game #30744399407: Tournament #181271666, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2009/07/22 9:39:13 ET
    Table '181271666 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
    Seat 3: Transistor1 (3615 in chips)
    Seat 4: scottishdavy (4565 in chips)
    Seat 5: XMrX201 (3745 in chips)
    Seat 9: xxxxs678 (1575 in chips)
    Transistor1: posts the ante 25
    scottishdavy: posts the ante 25
    XMrX201: posts the ante 25
    xxxxs678: posts the ante 25
    xxxxs678: posts small blind 100
    Transistor1: posts big blind 200
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Transistor1 [Ah Kc]
    scottishdavy: raises 400 to 600
    XMrX201: folds
    xxxxs678: folds
    Transistor1: raises 2990 to 3590 and is all-in
    scottishdavy: calls 2990
    *** FLOP *** [5s 2h 3s]
    *** TURN *** [5s 2h 3s] [Qc]
    *** RIVER *** [5s 2h 3s Qc] [5h]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    Transistor1: shows [Ah Kc] (a pair of Fives)
    scottishdavy: shows [9s 9h] (two pair, Nines and Fives)
    scottishdavy collected 7380 from pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 7380 | Rake 0
    Board [5s 2h 3s Qc 5h]
    Seat 3: Transistor1 (big blind) showed [Ah Kc] and lost with a pair of Fives
    Seat 4: scottishdavy showed [9s 9h] and won (7380) with two pair, Nines and Fives
    Seat 5: XMrX201 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 9: xxxxs678 (small blind) folded before Flop

    Now, we are on the bubble 100/200, 3 of us pretty level in chips and a shortish stack, I reshove all in with AK, my thinking is that this guy is a good winning player and can fold almost all hands given the ICM of the situation, his range for calling is super tight? He INSTAcalls me with 99. I know my play was aggressive, I ran this through SnG Wizard and I made about the biggest mistake I have seen on there -5% ev, most bad mistakes i make are around the -1% mark and have rarely seen anything this wrong?
    Surely he has to fold 95% of hands here, my image was TAG, what did he think he was beating? is 99 enough to call a reship all in from the co-chipleader when the blinds are only 100/200. Am I a donkey (serious analysis only please!!) I thought it was a great play, I have seen some of the best sng players on the instructional videos do this with rags, knowing the guy just cant call, barring AA KK. Did he put me on 88 or less?

    Am I completely missing something here, are the pot odds just too great for him? If he could see my hand and I had J 10, should he call? After contemplating this I know that I could see a flop for 400 chips and play it from there, push or fold wise, surely its +ev to shove?

    Your intelligent analysis will be really really welcome, cannot get my head round this!
    Kind regards, Transistor1.
  2. finewhine finewhine is offline

    Las Vegas, NV
    United States

    Posts: 861
    Joined: Nov 06

    Jul 22nd, 2009 (7/22/2009 5:37pm) in reply to Transistor1

    1. I don't understand why you are beating yourself up over this. It's a classic coin flip, you lost. GG, run better.

    2. Why do you say he has to fold over 95% of his hands? I don't agree. He probably put you on what you actually had and decided to flip for it. So what if you're TAG? Would you shove with AA or KK? Most don't, although some might.
  3. LordPye LordPye is offline

    Annandale, VA
    United States

    Posts: 1,749
    Joined: May 08

    Jul 22nd, 2009 (7/22/2009 6:09pm) in reply to finewhine

    This is nothing to get bent out of shape about. It's standard. As you said, it's the bubble...because it's the bubble, this OPENS UP your range. This WILL(and should) allow him to call with a wider range than usual whether you have a tag image or not. You 3-bet all-in with <20 bbs here's. If he actually folded 99 instead of calling THAT would be terrible.

    Hopefully someone else can give you the pokerstove math for this, but from what I can see, this is nothing else besides standard.
  4. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
    Joined: Nov 05

    Jul 22nd, 2009 (7/22/2009 6:45pm) in reply to Transistor1

    Your push is good!

    Here's the Nash Equilibrium for this situation:

    <TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TH width=40>PU</TH><TH width=40>CA</TH><TH width=40>OC</TH><TH>Range</TH></TR><TR><TD>CO</TD><TD><TD><TD>53.5%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q5o+ J2s+ J8o+ T6s+ T9o 96s+ 86s+ 75s+ 64s+ 54s <<what he *should* be shoving</TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BU</TD><TD><TD>1.8%, JJ+ </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>0.5%, AA </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>0.5%, AA </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD>11.5%, 77+ A8s+ A9o+ KJs+ KQo </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>7.1%, 88+ ATs+ AJo+ </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>2.3%, TT+ <<Your call range if he shoves.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sn...amp;s8=&s9=

    Add to the mix that he is not shoving so you have some fold equity.

    Add to the mix that you have a bubble abusing 7400/3700/1400/900 lead should you win, so ICM underestimates your equity in the case of shove/get called/win.

    This makes your shove a winning play, easily.

    As for his call, it's close, but completely expected. Very few people will fold 99 in his seat, especially without his back against the wall. The math on this would be close, and you can check it with an ICM calculator if you so desire.

    ICM Calculator: 3 places

    Figure out what his equity is if he folds, loses, and calls/wins, and you'll see how often he has to win the hand. Then compare 99 to what you think he perceives your shoving range to be in order to get the right answer.
  5. Transistor1 Transistor1 is offline

    London
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 3
    Joined: Feb 08

    Jul 23rd, 2009 (7/23/2009 11:32am) in reply to Jennifear

    Thank you very much for your input, really helped to get your opinion folks. Sometimes you know you are doing the right thing but verbalising it or explaining it to yourself when it goes wrong is confusing. Is it me or are the STT's at all levels these days really tough?
    Kind regards, Transistor1
    Thread Starter
  6. EvanCM57 EvanCM57 is offline

    Garden City, MI
    United States

    Posts: 8
    Joined: Feb 09

    Jul 23rd, 2009 (7/23/2009 1:53pm) in reply to Transistor1

    I feel like with a hand like that in that situation you're getting all you're money in either way, shoving preflop was probably the best idea instead of 3 betting half your stack away. At least when you shove in that spot sometimes you might be able to put someone off of a hand like nines or maybe even tens.
Reply to Thread