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Background: I have not played many 9 handed SNGs on stars or Full Tilt for that matter, so I have a basic idea of what I am doing. Normally I play HUs, but I'm bored of that, so I wanna transition. Now I have played very tight up until this point. I have stayed out of hands and have not opened a pot yet. However, in the past 2 orbits lag raised the button and I shoved out of the SB and shano raised the button on my BB and i pushed, both folded. So I think I had a tight image. Both players had not done anything out of the ordinary and seemed to play straight forward. What would you guys do in this situation. I just wanna see how others play it, so I can start to play more 9 handed. I put the results in ghost text, so feel free to look after you post. Thanks guys.
pokerstars Game #25884239038: Tournament #147396085, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2009/03/12 14:34:55 ET
Table '147396085 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: lagade (1760 in chips)
Seat 2: OSUBucks42 (2025 in chips)
Seat 4: kimmagnussen (2815 in chips)
Seat 7: YellowQ (990 in chips)
Seat 9: shano28 (5910 in chips)
lagade: posts small blind 75
OSUBucks42: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to OSUBucks42 [5s Ac]
kimmagnussen: folds
YellowQ: folds
shano28: folds
lagade: raises 300 to 450
<SPAN>OSUBucks42: raises 1575 to 2025 and is all-in
lagade: calls 1310 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (265) returned to OSUBucks42
*** FLOP *** [7c Jc 8d]
*** TURN *** [7c Jc 8d] [5c]
*** RIVER *** [7c Jc 8d 5c] [Kh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
lagade: shows [Ad Qc] (high card Ace)
OSUBucks42: shows [5s Ac] (a pair of Fives)
OSUBucks42 collected 3520 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3520 | Rake 0
Board [7c Jc 8d 5c Kh]
Seat 1: lagade (small blind) showed [Ad Qc] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 2: OSUBucks42 (big blind) showed [5s Ac] and won (3520) with a pair of Fives
Seat 4: kimmagnussen folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: YellowQ folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: shano28 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)</SPAN> -
When lag did have to showdown in other hands, did he seem to play fairly solid hands?
Knowing only what you've said, I would probably fold here, because if he's making a move with any A, it is likely I'm out-kicked. I'd likely reraise with any pocket pair, and be more willing to just call with hands like 5-6, 7-8, 9-T, T-J.
Folding>Raising>Calling -
Lag had not showed down any hands to this point. The hands three or four hands he was in he won without showdown. I figured if he had an A i was outkicked, but I assumed he could be doing this with a hand like K10+ also, since it was blind v blind.
I agree that calling is the worst choice to make, and you can make an arguement to ship it in and there is a good arguement to fold here as well. The thought of folding did cross my mind, however since it was a turbo I thought it was a good chance to pick up some chips. I guess when I do seem to the few turbos that I do, I seem to get in situations like this alot, and am confused about them. -
It's true, he could make the same move with K-high or worse. I don't play turbos, but I understand you're looking for more spots than usual to pick up some blinds.
But in spots like this, I think about something I heard (I think it was) Antonio Esfandiari say: "Even bad players get good hands from time to time." Not saying dude is a bad player, just that A-5 wouldn't be worth it for me to find out if this is one of those times. -
I understand what you are saying, and I definitly agree with it.
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So if you use ICM it works out like this
f = fold percentage %
s = showdown win %
14.743 = (19.14 * f) + (1-f)(27.609 * s)
So if you can figure out his range that he raises, the hands he folds and the hand he calls you can "solve" wether this is a good play or this is a bad play.
You can do a partial solve to say if he folds 50% of his hands.
14.743 = 9.57+13.8045s
s= 37.4% win rate at showdown.
Folding 50% of his hands is pretty good for you, but if he calls you you probably aren't 37% to win since he's likely got a pocket pair or a better Ace. He's probably not calling with KQ and he's probably not folding 50% of the time. So I think this shove is almost deffinetly -EV.
Although this does show how shoving with a hand like JTs or even QTs could be profitable, because you'll be dominated less often enough to hit the 40% win rate at showdown to be +EV.
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