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sng / icm question

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  1. mrj1966 mrj1966 is offline

    New Providence, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 72
    Joined: Aug 06

    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 8:22am)

    Is this fold a good fold? I see that the 2 large chip stacks are heads up. I have to feel that I am beat here by one of the 2 hands... advise is greatly appreciated. I will show rest of the hand later today - just would like to get some feedback.

    pokerstars Game #10067170497: Tournament #51027083, $25+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2007/05/23 - 14:23:04 (ET)
    Table '51027083 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
    Seat 2: ChetDiMay (2200 in chips)
    Seat 4: olliethedog (2360 in chips)
    Seat 6: OleMiss23 (4120 in chips)
    Seat 7: lowprince (4820 in chips)
    ChetDiMay: posts small blind 75
    olliethedog: posts big blind 150
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to olliethedog [9h 9s]
    OleMiss23: raises 300 to 450
    lowprince: calls 450
    ChetDiMay: folds
    olliethedog: folds
  2. Juanda 87 Juanda 87 is offline

    Calgary
    Canada

    Posts: 1,555
    Joined: Aug 06

    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 8:26am) in reply to mrj1966

    I think you made the right lay down, it's unlikely you're beat now, but the flop is going to be hard to play, unless you just pull a squeeze play pre-flop, i'd strongly consider folding. If I did play the hand I would raise 90% maybe call 10%, calling just puts you in such a tough spot though. If you raise though, it's possible the guy that opened the pot folds two face cards, and the lady that called, is likely to have an underpair or two over cards aswell.
  3. Andy McLEOD Andy McLEOD is offline

    Adelaide
    Australia

    Posts: 1,494
    Joined: Aug 06

    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 8:38am) in reply to mrj1966

    insta shove..
    1
  4. Juanda 87 Juanda 87 is offline

    Calgary
    Canada

    Posts: 1,555
    Joined: Aug 06

    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 8:43am) in reply to Andy McLEOD

    Andy McLEOD is a great player, maybe it is an insta-shove with all the money in the pot and all the fold equity, I just depends on how likely it is the guy that opened, has an over-pair.
  5. mcg22 mcg22 is offline

    Toronto
    Canada

    Posts: 157
    Joined: Dec 06

    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 8:47am) in reply to mrj1966

    You certinaly can't just call this. It's either shove or fold. I think the fold is just fine. Not sure of actual ICM though. That stuff really makes my head hurt.

    :)
  6. my11freakinGEEZ my11freakinGEEZ is offline

    Westwood, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 486
    Joined: Sep 06

    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 9:34am) in reply to mrj1966

    I think you should push here every time.
  7. mrj1966 mrj1966 is offline

    New Providence, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 72
    Joined: Aug 06

    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 3:11pm) in reply to my11freakinGEEZ

    everyone - thanks for the replies. It is definitely a shove or fold move - here is out it played out

    *** FLOP *** [9c Ts 2s]
    OleMiss23: checks
    lowprince: checks
    *** TURN *** [9c Ts 2s] [9d]
    OleMiss23: checks
    lowprince: checks
    *** RIVER *** [9c Ts 2s 9d] [Kh]
    OleMiss23: bets 750
    lowprince: calls 750
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    OleMiss23: shows [Kd Ad] (two pair, Kings and Nines)
    lowprince: shows [Jd Qd] (a straight, Nine to King)
    lowprince collected 2625 from pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 2625 | Rake 0
    Board [9c Ts 2s 9d Kh]
    Seat 2: ChetDiMay (small blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 4: olliethedog (big blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 6: OleMiss23 showed [Kd Ad] and lost with two pair, Kings and Nines
    Seat 7: lowprince (button) showed [Jd Qd] and won (2625) with a straight, Nine to King

    So there were actually 4 overcards to my pair, which has to make me even money (33% / 33% / 33%) at best - those ICM calculations hurt my head too!
    Thread Starter
  8. ill flu ill flu is offline

    Kailua, HI
    United States

    Posts: 6,055
    Joined: Aug 05

    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 3:12pm) in reply to mrj1966

    This doesnt really have to do with ICM at all
  9. Denty Denty is offline

    Silver Spring, MD
    United States

    Posts: 1,148
    Joined: Jan 06

    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 4:49pm) in reply to mrj1966

    9s are a monster 4 handed. easy all in. there are only five hands that dominate you but even more hands that you have dominated. at worst, youre most likely looking at a coinflip in which you have the favorable end of. if you win that youll be sitting at about 5400 four-handed. 5400 chips four handed is almost a lock for first if you play it right. bubble play is usually pretty exploitable at the $27 sngs which makes your hand even more favorable
     
  10. d2themfi d2themfi is offline

    United States

    Posts: 857
    Joined: Jan 07

    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 4:51pm) in reply to Denty

    "5400 chips four handed is almost a lock for first if you play it right."

    Ur not serious are you?
     
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