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SnG ITM Finishes vs Bubble

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  1. ios94 ios94 is offline

    Montreal
    Canada

    Posts: 117
    Joined: Oct 07

    Sep 26th, 2008 (9/26/2008 8:24am)

    I'm sure I've seen the stats posted on here in the past, but what is considered an average and/or above agerage (%) ITM finish for a regular $10+1 9 man SnG and more specifically what percentage of bubble finishes is "acceptable"? Meaning, as a percentage how many games should we "bubbling" (obviously the less the better, I know, thanks). My ITM finishes are between 40%-41%, not sure off hand what my bubble finishes are but I ask b/c I've had a few too many this month.
  2. jtown1010 jtown1010 is offline

    United States

    Posts: 23,112
    Joined: Jan 06

    Sep 26th, 2008 (9/26/2008 8:47am) in reply to ios94

    How you expect to run with the wolves at night when you spend all day sparring with the puppies?
  3. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is offline

    Greenville, MS
    United States

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    Sep 26th, 2008 (9/26/2008 8:47am) in reply to ios94

    I wouldn't be worried about how many bubbles unless I was bubbling more than I was finishing 1st.

    The real issue is why are you bubbling a lot?

    (a) Taking bad beats?

    (b) Playing to tight early and blinding out?

    (c) Not taking aggro action (stealing enough) when you are playing bubble?

    (d) Playing the passive game and limping away your chips trying to hit flops?

    (e) Are you playing to win or finish ITM?
  4. ios94 ios94 is offline

    Montreal
    Canada

    Posts: 117
    Joined: Oct 07

    Sep 26th, 2008 (9/26/2008 10:02am) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    I wouldn't be worried about how many bubbles unless I was bubbling more than I was finishing 1st.

    Bubbling more than finishing 1st, yah probably. Bubbling more than finishing ITM, definitely not.

    (a) Taking bad beats? Probably just as many as the next guy.

    (b) Playing to tight early and blinding out? Not really, but I don't play stupid early. I play optimal strategy early on.

    (c) Not taking aggro action (stealing enough) when you are playing bubble? I'm looking at some hands after the game and I'm missing some ICM shoves here and there but for the most part ICM is in effect when on bubble.

    (d) Playing the passive game and limping away your chips trying to hit flops? Defintiely not.

    (e) Are you playing to win or finish ITM? ITM first, then play to win. ROI is @ 11% over 1,000 games and change. Sorry, I don't want to hear that 1,000 games is not a big enough sample size.
    Thread Starter
  5. The K-Man The K-Man is offline

    Barnegat, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 202
    Joined: Mar 05

    Sep 26th, 2008 (9/26/2008 12:03pm) in reply to ios94

    "Sorry, I don't want to hear that 1,000 games is not a big enough sample size."

    Gotta disagree here. I've played over 10,000 sngs throughout the years and have an average ROI of 14%. I also have stretches of 1,000 where my average ROI is ~7%. Now is that 7% ROI, 1000 game sample representative of my true potential?

    Keep on grindin,

    Driew
  6. ios94 ios94 is offline

    Montreal
    Canada

    Posts: 117
    Joined: Oct 07

    Sep 26th, 2008 (9/26/2008 12:56pm) in reply to The K-Man

    I know, all the SnG experts say that you need a massive sample to get a true representation I still don't buy it. The fish who's played 500 games and has an ROI of -35% will stay a fish if he keeps playing the way he plays, at the same time if he changes his strategy he could easily turn it around. He's not -35% because of the number of games he's played, he's -35% because he has no clue what he's doing.

    I have a bit of a stats background in my work/education, a sample of 1,000 when doing a study is more than enough. Take any type of presidential poll, do you think they poll 10,000 people? Not even close, they'll call about 1,000-1,400 ppl covering every demographic. You may say that it doesn't relate to poker but it's the same idea.

    I've also had stretches of 100 games where my ROI is probably -20%, but I'm not a
    -20% ROI I player and I know that. Obviously I'll agree with you that the bigger the sample the more accurate your results will be, just like any study. Only a Census is a true representation, (and even that, you'll have different forms that don't go to every household)...ok I'm babbling now.
    Thread Starter
  7. The K-Man The K-Man is offline

    Barnegat, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 202
    Joined: Mar 05

    Sep 26th, 2008 (9/26/2008 5:39pm) in reply to ios94

    That is why presidential polls mean jack shiat.
  8. mikeand mikeand is offline

    Hermosa Beach, CA
    United States

    Posts: 759
    Joined: Mar 07

    Sep 26th, 2008 (9/26/2008 5:44pm) in reply to ios94

    Switch to cash games immed.
     
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