[matze_widi]

So this is the $44 turbo on stars, villain is playing 13/10 with 3% 3bet over 700 hands no other reads/dynamic atm.

What range do u villain assign here?
i only came up with a few hands here villain could have and i�m not sure tho if my analyse is correct.

pokerstars Game #71770659861: Tournament #477819405, $40+$4 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (20/40) - 2011/12/07 14:02:55 ET
Table '477819405 10' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Internett93o (2900 in chips)
Seat 2: mr.thome (2950 in chips)
Seat 3: LearnBB (3000 in chips)
Seat 4: matze_widi (2910 in chips)
Seat 5: rckyu (2950 in chips)
Seat 6: Mephi665 (3245 in chips)
Seat 7: Pocket55ives (5400 in chips)
Seat 8: Pizdariki (3325 in chips)
Seat 9: YugiohPro (3320 in chips)
mr.thome: posts small blind 20
LearnBB: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to matze_widi [Jh Jd]
matze_widi: raises 80 to 120
rckyu: calls 120
Mephi665: folds
Pocket55ives: calls 120
Pizdariki: folds
YugiohPro: folds
Internett93o: folds
mr.thome: calls 100
LearnBB: folds
*** FLOP *** [2s 4d 8h]
mr.thome: checks
matze_widi: bets 275
rckyu: raises 445 to 720
Pocket55ives: folds
mr.thome: folds
matze_widi:

[stbroce42]

either 22,44,88,99, 1010. doubt he had jj beat pre

[matze_widi]

 

Originally Posted by stbroce42

either 22,44,88,99, 1010. doubt he had jj beat pre

wasnt really sure if he would raise all sets here with two ppl behind, why not just call and let them come along??
i mean he doesnt have to protect against anything right??
he could raise tho if he thinks he stacks me here often enough.
idk i thought he is more likely to call then to raise sets

[rock_it_bad]

Im thinking your right i dont think he has a set here.. If he does theres nothing that scares him the move would be to flat then see if you spaz out on turn right?? what about a hand like a suited 78 or 98?? If he is ranging you on any sorta of A X sorta hand he may be raising to protect his small pair from overs on the turn??

[stbroce42]

99 and 1010 probably more likely...he got his safe flop and feels he needs to protect it

did u fold?

[tyson219 Moderator]

I think all pairs could be in his range and maybe a couple random 8x hands, although with his stats I don't think 78s, 89s and A8s are all that likely since you opened UTG. Versus the UTG raise, villain could flat with QQ+. It seems like a really odd spot to raise the flop with a set, unless he believe you have an overpair and are likely to stack off. I would think he's trying to protect 66,77,99-TT against an overcard on the turn or attempting to get value from smaller pairs with QQ-AA or an odd value line with 22, 44 or 88, though I think we can discount those hands somewhat.

[djdoodoo]

With a 4 player pot just about every card coming on the turn is a bad card for him so he probably wanted to just take the pot on the flop and was happy with that. So I'd say 55,66,77,99, TT

And if anyone was a fish/calling station in the pot then leading his set wouldn't be such a bad idea so he also has 22, 44, 88 however if he has a set and there isn't a fish at the table then he'd probably c/c or c/r. I think continued aggression on the turn means a set though if the turn isn't a brick. Obviously he could double barrel ace, king or queen trying to get you off a higher pair than his. Edited By: djdoodoo Dec 22nd, 2011 at 04:34 PM

[matze_widi]

 

Originally Posted by tyson219

I think all pairs could be in his range and maybe a couple random 8x hands, although with his stats I don't think 78s, 89s and A8s are all that likely since you opened UTG. Versus the UTG raise, villain could flat with QQ+. It seems like a really odd spot to raise the flop with a set, unless he believe you have an overpair and are likely to stack off. I would think he's trying to protect 66,77,99-TT against an overcard on the turn or attempting to get value from smaller pairs with QQ-AA or an odd value line with 22, 44 or 88, though I think we can discount those hands somewhat.

i def can see himn having QQ-AA here and thought he would raise QQ,KK here a lot and might just call more often with AA since there is not a lot to protect against, but he might not wanna see a turn 4 ways with AA.
not sure why he would raise 99,TT here ever or what his plan is if he raises them.

 

Originally Posted by djdoodoo

With a 4 player pot just about every card coming on the turn is a bad card for him so he probably wanted to just take the pot on the flop and was happy with that. So I'd say 55,66,77,99, TT

And if anyone was a fish/calling station in the pot then leading his set wouldn't be such a bad idea so he also has 22, 44, 88 however if he has a set and there isn't a fish at the table then he'd probably c/c or c/r. I think continued aggression on the turn means a set though if the turn isn't a brick. Obviously he could double barrel ace, king or queen trying to get you off a higher pair than his.

did u even read the hand??
he cant c/c or c/r since i cbetted the flop and fwiw we are still on the flop and not on the turn

[tyson219 Moderator]

 

Originally Posted by matze_widi

i def can see himn having QQ-AA here and thought he would raise QQ,KK here a lot and might just call more often with AA since there is not a lot to protect against, but he might not wanna see a turn 4 ways with AA.
not sure why he would raise 99,TT here ever or what his plan is if he raises them.

Yeah, I agree. I don't like raising 99/TT as the villain without planning to get it in, which doesn't make sense in this spot. But, I guess I can understand some people raising 99/TT in a 4 way pot because most turn and river cards are going to make it difficult to figure out where you stand. so maybe r/f flop > call turn/call river? I don't know.

[Gags30]

Def just fold.

He's 13/10 over a bunch of hands, he's not gonna get out of line at all in this spot. When he flats utg+1 his range is a ton of pairs. And for him to continue on this board he def has a pair. He easily could have flat QQ+ here. Even if he's raising every overpair, then this is still a fold. Sure we beat a couple, but we're behind his whole range. Also add in sets and we're def far behind

When 13/10 players raise these types of boards they basically always have gold. Even tho it seems like a bad board to raise a set cause it's so dry, a 13/10 is still most likely gonna raise them, cause they're just playing so face up usually

[double_kyan]

13-10 i'm seeing qq kk aa on this hand

[Gags30]

 

Originally Posted by double_kyan

13-10 i'm seeing qq kk aa on this hand

this is a fundamental flaw in the way people think about ranges. they too often try to assign 1 or 2 hands to a player...sure, this guy could have QQ KK or AA here...but isnt' it also possible that he has a set? and is there any chance that he has TT or 99 as well? compare your hand to the whole range, and then if you think certain parts are more or less likely, make your decision based on this. for example TT and 99 are less likely, but still should be considered. so look at how we do with those hadns in the range, and then take them out and see how we do:

Board: 2s 4d 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.114% 34.12% 00.00% 15579565 0.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 65.886% 65.89% 00.00% 30089594 0.00 { QQ+, TT-88, 44, 22 }



Board: 2s 4d 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 08.553% 08.55% 00.00% 4481164 0.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 91.447% 91.45% 00.00% 47910328 0.00 { QQ+, 88, 44, 22 }


we obviously gain equity with the TT and 99 added, but either way it's looking like we're in pretty bad shape

[DirtyRivDog]

I see a fold too, I would raise sets here, seeing as you raised UTG it scrweams that you have a big hand, no matter what your C-bet sizing, and he would raise with the intention of inducing a 4-bet from you knowing you likely have an overpair. If his range could also include overpairs to the J's then its not even a thought about folding.

[Gags30]

the only way this would not be a fold is if he bluffs here a lot. given that he's 13/10, the positions, and that it's so early in this tourney, i would guess that he is bluffing exactly 0% of the time here

[Pghfan987]

I'd weight his range towards AA/KK more than sets, but this looks like a really easy fold to me, especially with no flush draws out there. He should be flatting sets on that board, but nits don't always play optimally.

[chardrian]

I agree with gags 100% on this one.

[gjallen1975]

looks like 99-QQ. agree he calls a set on that board and 3b AA/KK pre. obv could have a set or AA/KK, but most likely 99-QQ.

[djdoodoo]

 

Originally Posted by matze_widi

did u even read the hand??
he cant c/c or c/r since i cbetted the flop and fwiw we are still on the flop and not on the turn

Obviously I just misread. So obv a reraise is what I'm on about. Still applies.

[matze_widi]

i did consider him having 99,TT but i just asumed he would call more often then raise, but obv thats just an assumption. The same goes with him not raising sets here, i thought he would more often then not just call with them.But as gags explained 13/10 guys just have the nizzels a lot in that spot.
I did ended up folding and felt pretty good about it,but i really though his most likely hands are QQ-AA here.

[4bet72o]

i think he has 99/tt/78/89/a8s range and can never fold here

dont think hes flatting pre often with qq here... i can see 99-jj... get it in

[pokerscrub1]

 

Originally Posted by 4bet72o

i think he has 99/tt/78/89/a8s range and can never fold here

dont think hes flatting pre often with qq here... i can see 99-jj... get it in

why would we put 78, 89, & A8 as any portion of his range when he is obv really nitty? I think he is actually probably gonna have 99 & TT here a pretty descent % of the time, but he is never bluffing here and he is going to have sets and overpairs often enough to make this a fold.

[4bet72o]

your right.

[RedIceRap Moderator]

With so many people in i just snap fold there... U can pray for 99/TT but don't know if these two hands will raise. I mean u cbet into 4 people? He has to expect u to have smth like qq+ there and prolly just wants to stack u on the flop there. Everything that doesn't beat qq+ wont raise there imo. And yeah, agree on this dry board a call with a set would prolly be better, but if it's a random he prolly just thinks "oh everytime i slowplay a hand i get sucked out" or smth. Thinking about it i actually kinda like the raise since it's a bit tougher to put him on a set and there are quite a few cards that will kill his action. Even with aces i think this just a fold since we drawing to a few outs way to often when we get raised there imo. Tougher with aces tho since there are so many players who see 99+ as the nuts there.

[QUOTE=matze_widi;6676803]i def can see himn having QQ-AA here and thought he would raise QQ,KK here a lot and might just call more often with AA since there is not a lot to protect against, but he might not wanna see a turn 4 ways with AA.
not sure why he would raise 99,TT here ever or what his plan is if he raises them.

Agree with that post a 100% btw. Even think most of his range there is qq+ rather and a set. Rly doubt u beat much in that spot. I always think about what villain gives me when i cbet into four people, and someone who raises there either has that range beat or is holding that range himself.