Now villian has been super active to the point that I had him noted as WILD AGGRESSIVE. Ex. 6xing AK from EP ... 6x AJ calling monster shove v AK ... and he had just lost a monster AK<KK ... He was a Goldstar however, he had by making VERY questionalbe plays. What is your move here ?
pokerstars Game #23356452532: Tournament #127699722, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit -
Level XX (3500/7000) - 2008/12/29 0:25:51 ET
Table '127699722 501' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: patriotpkr (167233 in chips)
Seat 2: jimaxxe (294465 in chips)
Seat 4: ThreePocketA (108216 in chips)
Seat 5: ephillips817 (193555 in chips)
Seat 6: Yeager28 (502152 in chips)
Seat 7: ^^NBMETH##^^ (198805 in chips)
Seat 8: wiclefe (96007 in chips)
Seat 9: swackman (527842 in chips)
patriotpkr: posts the ante 700
jimaxxe: posts the ante 700
ThreePocketA: posts the ante 700
ephillips817: posts the ante 700
Yeager28: posts the ante 700
^^NBMETH##^^: posts the ante 700
wiclefe: posts the ante 700
swackman: posts the ante 700
Yeager28: posts small blind 3500
^^NBMETH##^^: posts big blind 7000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ^^NBMETH##^^ [Ac 8c]
wiclefe: folds
swackman: folds
MXCANJOE is connected
^^NBMETH##^^ said, "yo patriot from fairhaven mass ?"
patriotpkr: folds
jimaxxe: folds
ThreePocketA: folds
ephillips817: raises 7000 to 14000
Yeager28: folds
^^NBMETH##^^: ??????

Please any input ..... I have some ###'s i want to post later to see if my thinking is WAY off

if vilain is that mutch aggro,FOLD,and find better spot to 3bet

pop2K

um, this is a super dumb spot.
3 bet/calling can't be profitable, even if he's 4 bet shoving light A8 doesn't do too well against a range of 22+,A8s+,ATo+,KT+,QT+,JT. can't see him 4 betting much lighter than that.

Hand 0: 54.177% 52.57% 01.60% 799380696 24396114.00 { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } Hand 1: 45.823% 44.22% 01.60% 672353028 24396114.00 { A8s }

so i'm gonna say i don't like 3 bet/calling. as far as open shoving...well...let's see, there's 5600+3500+7000 = 16,100 in the pot pre. he raises to 14000...there's 30,100 total in the pot.
if he's opening super super wide, let's say something like this:
44+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,A2 o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o

....seems reasonable for a super lag to open. that's 35.1% of hands. now you say how he got into monster pots with AJ and stuff...so i'd imagine he's not folding tooooo much, let's say his calling range is: AJo+,ATs+,77+...seems pretty reasonable. that's top 7.5%.
7.5/35.1 = 21.63%...so he's folding 78.36% of the time. .7863*30,100 = +23,668.
when called, it's his entire stack of 193,555, pot will be 193,555+9,100= 202,665 is what we can win...we're called 21.63% of the time, so that's 43,834...when we're called we're 31.732% against his range...so we call and win we win +13,909....when we're called and we lose, we lose 193,555*21.63% = 41,865....41,865*68.268% = -28,581

+23,668
+13,909
-28,581
23,668+13,909-28,581 = +8996

shoving is +ev against him cause he's opening super wide. if he's not opening as wide as i did it...or if he's calling wider, this is gonna be super close to being a bad shove though.

our final option is flat and play a flop. i don't particularly hate this option. but against a crazy opponent it's gonna put us in some tough post flop spots. not to mention the 66% of the time we whiff and wind up c/f the flop or c/c and then c/f the turn or w/e line we take.

obv we could 3 bet/fold here...but that's just dumb in this spot, and flatting would be wayyy better than 3 bet/folding.

idk, i probably just fold pre...

i dont consider myself really very loose/aggressive but if it folded to me in the button with the blinds/antes being what they are im prob opening pretty wide. even if we didnt have a read that hes been pretty LAG i think we can still make an argument that shoving is +EV.

if we had a read he was tight and folding often when its unopened to him in LP then id start to reconsider.

i think a shove is fine here.

only thing id be worried about is the fact that its a min raise. if thats his standard raise then fine but u seem to be saying hes been 6xing it and stuff. min raise here is a little fushy if he hasnt been min raising as his normal raise and if thats the case its worth some consideration

GAGS30 Ty for those #'s i was trying to fig them out but didnt know the process to get to those #'s .... i really think he could be a little wider range as well ........... will the fact he stacked off in this spot with AJo change you rthinking about this player and his range/my shove PF?

Sorry i messed up that post .... i have seen him open (min raise) A8 and called a 12BB shove

 

Originally Posted by methia33

Sorry i messed up that post .... i have seen him open (min raise) A8 and called a 12BB shove

still doesn't convince me that he's opening supppper wide. like i said...there's a difference between opening wide, and getting smacked with the deck while also not having a fold button.

what it comes down to is...you really need a super solid read to make a shove like this +ev. you have to KNOW that his opening range is as wide as i said it is. he really could be opening something like 20% and only folding half of his range...then this makes it a super blah spot.

the fact that he stacked off with AJo here makes me less inclined to shove, cause it's so many chips, i'd die if he calls with A9 here and we lose.

shvoing this against a villian that has the capability to actually fold AJ here would be a much better play.

 

Originally Posted by okse54

 

Originally Posted by bob2bob

ez fold, you aren't ahead of his range by much and he will likely all with a big percent of his hands

widen ur button opening range IMO

 

Originally Posted by GutShotBen

if vilain is that mutch aggro,FOLD,and find better spot to 3bet

pop2K

the more aggro our opponent the better the shove is not worse.

your right,but with a wild agressive read on the vilain ,we shnould find better spot to catch him
imo