I shove the river because I think that the villain could have TT or JJ here and make the crying call based on that idiot saying that he folded a Queen. Did he get reported?

I don't see him having a Q here very often with the way the hand was played. I would think that he would raise at some point before the river to find out if his Q is even good.

I don't think I can find a fold here but I also think we get more value in the hand by checking to induce a bluff. Only value in shoving is if JJ or TT will hero you off AND would check behind; every other hand is calling your shove because you are crushed or folding because they are on a draw.

My thinking on the river was: he might be more likely to raise a queen on the flop or turn to protect his hand, and the fact that the player said he folded one makes it a lot less likely that he has one.

I wasn't too worried about a 9 because he shouldn't have many 9s in his range after flatting me pre.

As Gags said there are 2 options: either jam or check/fold.

I thought that because of how i felt his range to be weighted less to a 9 or Q and more to TT or JJ, if I jam with said chat he is unlikely to fold these hands.

I jammed he had 99.

And no he didn't get reported.

 

Originally Posted by Gags30

how do we get more value by inducing a bluff? what hands are in this guy's range that he's now gonna bluff? a missed draw? club combos that he flats pre are gonna most likely be AXcc combos, or KXcc combos. Qc is on the board, as is the 9c...AXcc are gonna be ATcc AJcc, which have an over and a nut flush draw, and any Kx is gonna be like KJcc or KTcc which is a straight flush draw, same with JTcc...if he has a hand like T8cc or 87cc or 76cc, then those are straight+flush drwas or pair and flush draws...my point, is that most draws are really really big draws and prolly are just gonna raise the flop and try to get it in...

once we get to this point in the hand and he's called a few times, we need to decide whether or not he flats a bunch of Qx hands pre, and what he does with JJ and TT pre...if he's getting JJ and TT in pre, then he's more likely to have a Q or a 9 here. if we think he might flat those pairs, then we can jam the river for value. if not, we should just be check/folding. if he has a 9 he's not gonna be betting and will just check, and by chance ifhe does flat JJ/TT same thing with those, he's not gonna bet...and the only way he bets is if he has the Q...making this a check/fold...

edit: actually, he def could bet a 9 on the river...but he also might raise the turn with a 9 some %, also there's prolly not many 9x hands that he's flatting pre, so he prolly doesn't have a 9 very often

We don't have enough of a history to know how he plays a big draw. Although I agree that most players will generally just gii on the flop with a draw here that doesn't mean that all do.

I still like checking a hell of a lot more than I like jamming this river. When we jam we get maybe TT and JJ to call us. When we check, we give ourselves the opportunity to fold or to let our opp who still might have any of those draws (remember he could also have something like KJo or JTo here it doesn't have to only be a straight flush draw or a nut flush draw) bluff.

I also don't know if we can fold here, after putting in 5/9 of our stack and getting over 4:1 to make a call with such little info from our opp.

 

Originally Posted by chardrian

I don't think I can find a fold here but I also think we get more value in the hand by checking to induce a bluff. Only value in shoving is if JJ or TT will hero you off AND would check behind; every other hand is calling your shove because you are crushed or folding because they are on a draw.

Oh yes. Always checking this river. Both a str8 and flush draw on the flop. Your not getting called by worse and are almost always inducing a bluff.

 

Originally Posted by Gags30

we can be getting 1,000,000 to 1 on our money...it's still a fold if we're good 0% of the time (not saying this is necessarily what's happening in this hand...but saying 'oh there's a lot in there, you have to call' is really just awful reasoning)

also, it seems contradictory to say that you don't have the info to know how he plays a flush draw...yet you apparently have enough know that he's going to bluff a missed draw

if someone had a draw and played it passively on the flop and the turn, why would he all of a sudden start bluffing on the river? bluffing this river requires shoving, which is a big bluff for any player to make...and someone that played the whole hand so passively is just not likely to do that

check/fold is a perfectly fine option if he is never calling with worse when you shove, nor folding better...and when checked to, he's always going to check behind with worse, and only bet when he has better...doesn't matter what odds we're getting if good 0% of the time.......

so u sayin busted draws and worthless PPs under 99 wont shove? sure some players wont do this, but the Q on the river is pretty much the perfect card for everybody to shove there with a busted draw or �PP lower than 99. my point is if i bet the turn there's no river card anymore that could make me fold. if im scared of such a river card i prolly shove turn already or check the turn and start to induce. and he made a scary call with 99 pre, that kinda proves that he flats lowish PPs as well there. 99 was not good enough for him to get almost 20bb in in a LP vs SB battle. if he ever is on a draw or hero called flop and turn with a PP cause he puts villain on some A high hand we're def good >0% imo. and if we say there's too much money in the pot it should be obv that we're talking about this particular hand. if im hero calling my opponents down in position with 22 and the board is AAK3K and villain shoves, then we're good 0%. here we are good often enough to c/c imo. i think villain could easily have 88, but really not sure about 22-66, that's my only concern in this hand. it's at least a possibility, as well as KJ, KT, TJ and flushdraws. he doesn't want to get it in with 99 pre in that spot, so he could easily call down with a draw instead of reshoving. if the Q comes on the river and he has a busted draw and hero shows weakness by checking, i cant see how someone doesnt shove there.

If c/f is an option for u there then it obv is a good bluff card lol. From my experience most players are too agressive nowadays, so after hero checks there many players will treat this as weakness and just shove the rest in if they have no SD value. And most dont think about "oh i cant rep a Q so i give up" they think "he rarelly has a Q there so i just shove and pray he folds". I mean if he rly has air why should he check behind and give up if he can win what's in the middle after hero checks. Sure he could be the typa guy who calls u down with a draw which is obv passive, but i really doubt he will check behind air instead of shoving and trying to get heros A high to fold if he had a worthless PP or a draw. I dont know know this player, but i asume he's that average guy who plays sometimes. And i think he would take a passive line with a fd cause he didnt shove that 99 pre and kinda wanted to make sure he flops the nuts lol. Hobesty, if u check, and villain shoves, could u rly fold there? I dont get it honestly. AQ, QJ, KQ, 99, 77 are the only hands im afraid of and i expect to get shoved on pre by some of them. I feel like this is a good spot to c/c. Im not that good in doing the math, would be cool if someone does it and shows how this could be a c/f.

Well 77 flops a set =) but i obv know what u mean. I know that 22-66 will fold often but the turn card pairs the board and it basicly changes nothing if villain gives hero Ax, so he could call there. Obv optimistic to call down with such a hand there but many players dont give other players ranges, they just say "i give him AK" and play like they "know" what their opponent has. This is obv guessing but there are a lot of players who think like this. Unless villain has proven that he's not the average player i just asume he is. This is just a very close spot overall between shoving, c/c and c/f, but besides that i feel like nothing worse will call us if we shove i feel like we get bluffed of our hand to often with the pot being 2xour stack already. Esp when someone says he folded a Q in the chat makes it an even tougher fold, since villain wont have a 9 too often there.

 

Originally Posted by RedIceRap

Well 77 flops a set =) but i obv know what u mean. I know that 22-66 will fold often but the turn card pairs the board and it basicly changes nothing if villain gives hero Ax, so he could call there. Obv optimistic to call down with such a hand there but many players dont give other players ranges, they just say "i give him AK" and play like they "know" what their opponent has. This is obv guessing but there are a lot of players who think like this. Unless villain has proven that he's not the average player i just asume he is. This is just a very close spot overall between shoving, c/c and c/f, but besides that i feel like nothing worse will call us if we shove i feel like we get bluffed of our hand to often with the pot being 2xour stack already. Esp when someone says he folded a Q in the chat makes it an even tougher fold, since villain wont have a 9 too often there.

oops, i'm an idiot, ya, obv not 77...but like, 88 or 66...you know what i mean

 

Originally Posted by RedIceRap

Well 77 flops a set =) but i obv know what u mean. I know that 22-66 will fold often but the turn card pairs the board and it basicly changes nothing if villain gives hero Ax, so he could call there. Obv optimistic to call down with such a hand there but many players dont give other players ranges, they just say "i give him AK" and play like they "know" what their opponent has. This is obv guessing but there are a lot of players who think like this. Unless villain has proven that he's not the average player i just asume he is. This is just a very close spot overall between shoving, c/c and c/f, but besides that i feel like nothing worse will call us if we shove i feel like we get bluffed of our hand to often with the pot being 2xour stack already. Esp when someone says he folded a Q in the chat makes it an even tougher fold, since villain wont have a 9 too often there.

ya i mean i def agree with a lot of this...the problem here is that i dont' agree that there are many hands that the villain is getting to the river with where he doesn't ahve at least some sort of showdown value. even A high here is showdown value and looks pretty decent on Q979Q...all of those hands with value are gonna check. sure, it seems unlikely that he has a Q since that dolt says he folded one...but it's def still possible. agreed also that there aren't many 9s in his range...so that makes this seem like shoving is gonna be the best. if he has JJ or TT he calls, if he has A high he might hero.

shove > check/fold >>>>>>>>>>>>>> check/call

 

Originally Posted by chardrian

I can't really tell if you are just stoking the fire for discussion or trying to get in an internet battle. In either case I don't really mind replying. I admire your game and I think you at least don't think I am an ultimate retard so I think we agree about this hand more than we disagree.

You know as well as I do that I am not saying there's a lot of money so you have to call. Just as I know that you don't possibly believe you can have a 100% confidence when it comes down to defining ranges of an online player who you have a whopping total of 53 hands on lifetime.

So as with most hands this is coming down to ranges and math. Our hero has about 40k left. If he goes all-in the pot will have somewhere around 190k. So just looking at pure chip equity (i.e. not putting icm into the equation at all), we need to be ahead somewhere just over 20% of the time here for calling an all-in to be correct. To make a c/f correct in terms of pure chip equity that means that our villain has to have us beat somewhere around 80% of the time or more.

Where the rubber meets the road is that you think he wouldn't have those bluff hands 20% of the time or more here because he would have c/r flop. I simply disagree. I think there are plenty of players who would play a hand like T8o, KJo, JTo, or even a big draw this way - these players are hoping to bink their draws and know it will be hard for the hero to fold after putting in so many chips, but if they miss, they can still fold and keep a decent stack (in this case our villain would have a 100k stack if he folds after the turn). Moreover, they know that with position and with a chip advantage at the late stages of a tourney, they actually can bluff the river quite often when a scare card comes.

Anyhoo, even when you figure icm in here as well it doesn't really clarify much. Some might say that we should only c/c here if we think our villain will bluff 40% or more here because of icm (I am making that number up out of thin air). But the flipside of that argument, is that good thinking opps will bluff even more often in that case because they know that you can't call.

Lastly, as far as passive players not bluffing rivers - I think this is simply a case of you not understanding how passive players play because you would never ever play that way. Just because a player is a calling station on a flop and turn with a draw, doesn't mean that he doesn't realize the only way to win a pot when it is checked to him on a blank river is to bluff.

With the limited info we have here, I would think my opp has a draw or a worse pair too often for me to find a fold. I think draws make up more of his potential range than do JJ and TT so I check here to induce a bluff (since I would be jamming anyways) and c/c.

i think this is a good discussion, and i'm def not just talking to add fuel to it, i believe 100% of what i've said itt...

anyway...the main issue i have with this whole thing that you just wrote is that again, you say we don't have info on the villain, and can't make the assumption that he never bluffs, yet you're making a huuuuuuge assumption in saying that he flats with T8o KJo and JTo not only pre...but on 2 streets! oh ya, and tha'ts assuming that he opens JTo and T8o from utg+1! there's just so many maybes here that the reasoning just doens't seem solid here.

you're right, i did over-simplify some things a bit, perhaps for the sake of the argument. and passive players certainly can and do bluff when they miss draws. however, again, let's look at this whole thing. the guy is opening utg+1 at a final table, and one of the blinds 3bets him. right off the bat, unless he's been playing super crazy or loose (which, based on reads, does not seem to be the case) his flatting range here pre is going to be on the tighter side. sure, he might flat with KQo or KJo...but other than those few hands, there's probably not many un-suited combos that he flats. even though we only have 53 hands on someone, 53 hands near the final table bubble is a pretty good look at how someone plays, especially someone who is chip leader or close to it. if this was a loose/aggressive player, he would have certainly been abusing the final table bubble at least a bit...and only raising 7 pots out of the 53 hands we've seen is far from aggressive...anyway...ok so he's a little on the tighter side, so maybe he does play his draws passively, ok fine. again, how many draws does this guy really flop? not everyone is going to instantly call here with JTs. it's the final table, and he could potentially play a pot that is going to cripple him, a lot of guys are folding these hands pre

idk...your explanations all make sense...i understand thinking it's close, and not being sure if you should jam or not... the problem i think you're just giving him way too many draws in his range.

let's look at combos...if JJ and TT are the only hands that he calls us with that we beat, then there's 12 combos of those. as for draws...AJcc ATcc KJcc KTcc JTcc....again, i doubt he's flatting JTo pre...so i'll give him JTss JTdd and JThh as well...then, ok, maybe he peels with KJ with the gutter (again, i dbout he's calling here super often, but for the sake of argument, ok fine)...KJhh KJss KJdd...annnnd i'll even throw in KTss KTdd KThh...let's add that up...that's 14 combos of draws, and 12 combos of hands that we're beating that call shoves.

so ok, you can say, look more combos of draws. well, let's go back, this is assuming he calls with all of these hands pre 100% of the time, and 100% of the time is peeling with the gutters, and THEN 100% of the time he's jamming the river as a bluff...i really doubt you can say he's doing all of these 100%, or close to it, every single time

now, let's look at the JJ/TT...we can say with very little doubt, that he's going to flat JJ/TT pre...we can certainly say he's going to call the flop, we can also be pretty sure he's gonna call the turn with those hands....and we're at least decently confident he's going to be calling the river shove.

if i had to put numbers on these...pre, he's calling 100% of the time, flop: calling 99% of the time, turn...90%...river 80%?...

as for the KJs and KTs...pre, maybe 70% sure he calling...flop...maybe 50% sure...turn...idk, less than 50?...river...ok maybe 40% of the time he bluffs when he misses...but do you see how much harder it is for someone to get to this point

lastly, fundamental thing about random players, it's way easier for someone to call a bet than it is for them to make one...especially when it's an all in on the river at a final table...therefore, with a fairly even split of hands that we beat and bluff hands, we should always be shoving

 

Originally Posted by RedIceRap

ok i tried smth, not sure if im right here but i typed in the following:

Air that could bluff (3.5%):
88
66-22
KJs
JTs
8c7c
7c6c

Hands we prolly lose value against if we check (2.4%):
JJ-TT
AJs-ATs
AJo

sure we could say we have to take out 22-66 since he will fold this on the flop/turn, but we also could say he will just jam TT/JJ pre and have to take that out as well. it's really close but i still feel he either has a hand that crushes us completely or he has a draw, and since there is a Q9Xss out there, plus the turn card doesnt change much i think the ranges i typed in might be correct

EDIT: LOL, didnt see it's utg+1!! thought he was in the cutoff, either read the HH wrong or someone else before said that he raises from the CO.. :/ now some things actually make sense

i did something similar in my post...see waht you think



also, yeah, he might jam JJ or TT pre...but there's a wayyyyyy bigger chance that he folds 22 on the flop than there is that he's jamming TT pre, like wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy bigger

Am I the only one who check shoves turn here with these stacks?

 

Originally Posted by flashdisastr

lool fun spot
just sayin its not only a kinda "sick" bluff to make on river if we check to villain, BUT its a also a sick jam for hero to make without having it whch means villain prob wont call much worse :/.
I guess check fold is also good since the guy in chat said he folded a Q so the villain will be less likely to rep a 1 outer???:):) I mean that river is hard enough to bluff now its even less likely he "got" there.

This... Very interesting discussion, it seems to me it's very close between all 3 options. FWIW I c/c because basically we are only ever getting called by TT and JJ, which just seems to be a smaller part of his range than 22-66, 88 and busted draws. Although I do agree that his bluffing % with these hands can't be that high due to the fact he's unlikely to get to the river v.often in this spot with small pairs (it was 3-bet pre) and his possible draws are likely to be v.big therefore will probably raise the flop. I think ultimately though he bets a worse hand more than 20% of the time here when checked to (Oh wait there's still ICM lol...)

Then there's the c/f option, which is a line I would never take, yes Gags has a point it's definitely an option and after reading this thread I think it has to be considered. But at the end of the day could you live with yourself when he clicks the show cards button?

Edit: In summary imo we just have to say meh that river sucks esp. given the Ruski donk's chat... c/c > bet > c/f because people love to bluff when they're beat and there's a big juicy pot out there regardless of whether it's a good card to rep etc. Buit we can't really do much wrong here imo.

since everything is so extremely close i think this is the perfect spot to go with ur guts and if u feel ur beaten just c/f. im not a fan of it but i wasnt involved in the hand. it's really a big difference between having lots of time now to analize it afterwards or being involved in it and having that feel for the situtation.

check call seems to be pretty standard, thinking they will hero u without any particular read or history seems unreasonable. Draws can play however they want to, to be honest, there's no real rule that getting it in on the flop is the best play. Call Call, jam certain rivers is certainly viable if you know what u r doing and have a good feel for the opponent. J10, 108, 86, clubs.

The fact that 1 queen is out of the way doesn't change check/call vs shoving too much since a queen will always get the money in with you. All it does is weigh his range more towards the hands you beat. So check/call, shoving becomes relatively better than check/folding. Although it might make the opponent think u r less likely to have a queen so they might call lighter.

A hand reader might understand that when you check the river, u don't have a queen, so it shouldn't change their bluffing tendencies except they know that you know they are less likely to have a queen and thus might be less likely to bluff.

I guess if my logic is right, then shoving becomes RELATIVELY better than check calling with the extra information.