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Stars Mill Early Exit

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  1. TroubleSuit TroubleSuit is offline

    Posts: 261
    Joined: Oct 05

    Jul 31st, 2006 (7/31/2006 2:58pm)

    Setup:

    2nd hour of the stars million last sunday. I have approx. 4K and Villan has approx. 3K. My table image is tight, however I did just raise the previous hand and take down the blinds (I had a hand but they dont know that). Blinds are 50/100.

    Hand:

    Preflop:
    I pick up AKos UTG and raise to 300, folds around to BB who calls. Pot is 650.

    Flop:
    Flop is Ad 7d 4s. Villan checks, I bet 400, villan calls. Pot is 1450.

    Turn:
    Turn is Qc. Villan checks, I bet 1000. Villan pushes for 2300. I call. Villan tables 7 7 for a flopped set and Im crippled.

    Analysis:

    I feel like my play preflop and on the flop was good. I am upset that I didnt sense the set based on the Villans preflop call and post flop smooth call. I felt like I had to bet the turn to prevent the diamond draw, but looking back that would not be a very likely holding. If I had to do it again I think checking behind on the turn and paying off a value bet on the river is the best play. Analysis, comments?

    J
  2. Games Geek Games Geek is offline

    Foster City, CA
    United States

    Posts: 1,799
    Joined: Jul 05

    Jul 31st, 2006 (7/31/2006 6:23pm) in reply to TroubleSuit

    It sounds like your own analysis is pretty spot on. The play is pretty standard, though I'm a little surprised he didn't raise with 77 consider the diamond draw that threatens his set.

    Given that he didn't raise, I probably would have made the same read -- a diamond draw w/ possibly some backdoors to a straight.

    Tough hand.
  3. Damage1 Damage1 is offline

    Pittsburgh, PA
    United States

    Posts: 2,954
    Joined: Apr 06

    Jul 31st, 2006 (7/31/2006 6:29pm) in reply to TroubleSuit

    Troublesuit, if he had check/raised the flop what do you think your read/play would have been. would you be able to put him on a set, diamond draw, 65, AQ etc...

    i know it doesnt matter for this hand but i would have check/raised the flop if i had 77 because if the other person, or you in this case, has an ace theres a good chance he will get paid off, or if you have a weaker hand he takes the pot down after getting a continuation bet out of you, without worrying about the possible draws

    i dont know if this applies or not, but in addition to the reasons above, check raising and having the other person muck could affect your table image to show that you will defend your blinds, play back at people, but im not confident here so ignore if necessary
  4. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

    NY
    United States

    Posts: 2,633
    Joined: Oct 05

    Jul 31st, 2006 (7/31/2006 9:11pm) in reply to TroubleSuit

    I personally would have folded on the turn against most players but not always .

    The queen can be a scare card as well if he called with ace queen preflop and now he has two pair . I highly doubt he would have made this play with ace jack , so if you think long enough , you come to the realization that betting and folding on the turn is the correct play . Don't make the mistake of checking on the turn .

    I also think the player with the set played his hand the proper way . He shouldn't raise on the flop even though a possible flush draw exists . It is much more probably that the player is betting an ace and not a flush draw so he was correct in playing his hand that way .
  5. TroubleSuit TroubleSuit is offline

    Posts: 261
    Joined: Oct 05

    Aug 1st, 2006 (8/1/2006 2:03pm) in reply to jay_shark

    I dont think that folding on the turn is a profitable play in the long run. Once he reraises it is 1300 to get 4750 which is approx 3.6 to 1 on my money. I have run into enough bad players and wierd plays to think that this is a +EV call. Believe me I wanted to lay it down at that point but I ended up deciding it was worth the stack equity to me at this stage of the tourney ( 1000 if I lose vs. 2300 if i fold vs. 7000 if I win). Looking back at this stage 2300 is much much > than 1000 but at the time I was ready to get my chips or get out with this hand.

    Why no check on the turn. I see 3 possible results if I check the turn all of which save me many chips.

    Result 1: blank on river, he bets out 1K and I call losing to set of 7's
    Result 2: K on river, he bets out, I push and he calls leaving me at 1000 (the river in the hand in question was in fact a K)
    Result 3: diamond on river, he may check fearing the flush and I check behind also fearing the flush and a trap.

    I agree that the villan played it very well.

    J
    Thread Starter
  6. rppkoz rppkoz is offline

    Macomb, MI
    United States

    Posts: 170
    Joined: Jul 06

    Aug 1st, 2006 (8/1/2006 2:19pm) in reply to TroubleSuit

    Another question, and this is a default play for a lot of villains that flop a set with 2 of a suit and Ace on the board. What's your line if villain leads flop for 1/2 pot?
     
  7. LesW LesW is offline

    Boston, MA
    United States

    Posts: 1,032
    Joined: Feb 06

    Aug 1st, 2006 (8/1/2006 3:34pm) in reply to rppkoz

    That was a damn good trap. Not too many people could have gotten away from it, with tht said you didn't mention what HIS image was like, and whether or not you felt beat by the check raise on the turn. I would have liked to see you play this hand a lot more aggressively. Your preflop and flop bets are so standard that his calls give you no information.
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