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I basically busted out of the Sunday Million tonight with 89 of spades on a 56Q flop with two spades. I took a lot of heat for the play from the rail, so i would like to know if i played it badly and how i should play in similar situations in the future. I know my no limit tournament game has a ton of holes, so any advice would be appreciated. Here's the hand:
<pre>pokerstars Game #40135936601: Tournament #285020010, $200+$15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXV (15000/30000) - 2010/02/21 23:30:10 ET
Table '285020010 2225' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: boozhwaa (808274 in chips)
Seat 2: renaldo81b (369655 in chips)
Seat 3: Pimpi1965 (791284 in chips)
Seat 4: rootboyslim (1276420 in chips)
Seat 5: Dillinger2 (1126596 in chips)
Seat 6: tazys91 (911263 in chips)
Seat 7: infany77 (113730 in chips)
Seat 9: strflushtome (729146 in chips)
boozhwaa: posts the ante 3000
renaldo81b: posts the ante 3000
Pimpi1965: posts the ante 3000
rootboyslim: posts the ante 3000
Dillinger2: posts the ante 3000
tazys91: posts the ante 3000
infany77: posts the ante 3000
strflushtome: posts the ante 3000
boozhwaa: posts small blind 15000
renaldo81b: posts big blind 30000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to boozhwaa [8s 9s]
Pimpi1965: folds
mauroleocast is connected
rootboyslim: folds
Dillinger2: folds
tazys91: folds
infany77: folds
strflushtome: raises 32250 to 62250
boozhwaa: calls 47250
renaldo81b: calls 32250
*** FLOP *** [5s Qs 6h]
strflushtome said, "goed plan joep"
boozhwaa: checks
renaldo81b: checks
strflushtome: bets 115500
boozhwaa: raises 235500 to 351000
renaldo81b: folds
strflushtome: raises 312896 to 663896 and is all-in
boozhwaa: calls 312896
Pappe_Ruk [observer] said, "holddddddddddd"
boss_bobo [observer] said, "holdddddddddddd"
*** TURN *** [5s Qs 6h] [Kc]
*** RIVER *** [5s Qs 6h Kc] [4h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
boozhwaa: shows [8s 9s] (high card King)
strflushtome: shows [As 3s] (high card Ace)
strflushtome collected 1538542 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1538542 | Rake 0
Board [5s Qs 6h Kc 4h]
Seat 1: boozhwaa (small blind) showed [8s 9s] and lost with high card King
Seat 2: renaldo81b (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: Pimpi1965 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: rootboyslim folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Dillinger2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: tazys91 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: infany77 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: strflushtome (button) showed [As 3s] and won (1538542) with high card Ace</pre> -
I'd probably 3-bet pre if I thought the button raise from the villain was weak. As played preflop, I like the play on the flop. You figure you probably have 12 outs, which makes it about 50/50. As it turned out, you had 18 outs, so you were actually a favorite to take this down.
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Thanks, that's what i was thinking when i made the play. It ended up being 9 outs, since he had just the flush draw himself. It was such a huge spot for me, the Sunday Million is sooo far out of my bankroll. I'll sleep better now ;-)
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I don't know how you figure you're a favorite. Your math is confusing?
Hold'em Simulation
<span>990 trials (Exhaustive)</span>
board: 5s Qs 6h
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><th>Hand</th><th>Pot equity</th><th>Wins</th><th>Ties</th></tr><tr><td>8s9s</td><td>29.29%</td><td>290</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>As3s</td><td>70.71%</td><td>700</td><td>0</td></tr></tbody></table>
Looks like you're a 70:30 dog.
Are you one of the players that think getting it in behind is +EV b/c of suck-out equity. -
Only thing i would have done differently would prob be to 3bet pre to around 185k since the button is most likely opening ATC if folded to him at these levels...Do you have any reads on this villain at all that would make a light 3bet pre -EV??? As played on the flop I like the C/R and committing yourself to get it in, it was just UL that he had the same flush draw as you which took away a lot of your outs, I mean if you're against AQ or KQ you're def a favorite on that flop...
So basically what I'm wondering is what was your read on this villain prior to this hand?? Has he been pretty LAG? you should be noticing since hes to your direct right -
I didn't have much of a read on him. I don't think we'd been playing together for long. There wasn't much random button raising at my tables, it folded to me a lot in my small blinds. I had an idea he would call a reasonable 3bet with most of his raising hands, but that may have been more fear than true read. Tournament hold'em is very much not my game, so i didn't want to risk many chips preflop with 9 high and be first to act when he called. A 3bet plus continuation bet would have been about half my chips.
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I mean yeah it would have been about half your chips, but wouldn't it have been the same result that way? You still prob would be getting it in on the flop.. I feel like you should be the aggressor against people from late position. You also could have just folded but I don't like giving up a hand like 89suited when the blinds and antes are that high, and plus if he 4bet shoves on you, you could have just folded there..He should be folding a lot of hands on the button if you 3bet him A3 suited being one of them
Originally Posted by boozhwaa
I didn't have much of a read on him. I don't think we'd been playing together for long. There wasn't much random button raising at my tables, it folded to me a lot in my small blinds. I had an idea he would call a reasonable 3bet with most of his raising hands, but that may have been more fear than true read. Tournament hold'em is very much not my game, so i didn't want to risk many chips preflop with 9 high and be first to act when he called. A 3bet plus continuation bet would have been about half my chips.
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That is just wrong. You don't calculate the odds of your hand versus his hand after you've seen his card. You calculate with your hand versus his assigned range of hands. If you assume you have ~12 outs -- flush draw + gut shot, then it's about even.
Originally Posted by MYBLUEDOG
I don't know how you figure you're a favorite. Your math is confusing?
Hold'em Simulation
<span>990 trials (Exhaustive)</span>
board: 5s Qs 6h
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><th>Hand</th><th>Pot equity</th><th>Wins</th><th>Ties</th></tr><tr><td>8s9s</td><td>29.29%</td><td>290</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>As3s</td><td>70.71%</td><td>700</td><td>0</td></tr></tbody></table>
Looks like you're a 70:30 dog.
Are you one of the players that think getting it in behind is +EV b/c of suck-out equity.
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