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sun mill

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  1. leoslayer leoslayer is offline

    Raleigh, NC
    United States

    Posts: 622
    Joined: Nov 07

    Sep 28th, 2009 (9/28/2009 12:20am)

    i dont play mtts and i am not very good but i got in an argument with a guy who has only played the sun mil a few times prob less than 10 and plays almost only sngs 10 to 20 dollar. his best mtt performance was qualifying for aruba a couple of years ago and then comming in 40th.

    he thinks if he played the sun mil next week his odds of winning are 1/field size.
    i think higher. not being an mtter what do you place the odds at?
  2. bef99hwk bef99hwk is offline

    Manhattan, KS
    United States

    Posts: 7,332
    Joined: Apr 07

    Sep 28th, 2009 (9/28/2009 12:43am) in reply to leoslayer

    they are prolly less actually. If I didn't win the mill playing every single Sunday for 150 years I'd prolly shoot myself in the afterlife.
  3. R_Webb18 R_Webb18 is offline

    Cincinnati, OH
    United States

    Posts: 1,661
    Joined: Jun 07

    Sep 28th, 2009 (9/28/2009 12:45am) in reply to leoslayer

    math wise hes right

    but if he's playing 10 and 20 sngs and a winner he prob better shot since he knows how to play
     
  4. doubledave22 doubledave22 is offline

    NJ
    United States

    Posts: 4,719
    Joined: Jan 06

    Sep 28th, 2009 (9/28/2009 12:48am) in reply to bef99hwk

     
    Originally Posted by bef99hwk View Post

    they are prolly less actually. If I didn't win the mill playing every single Sunday for 150 years I'd prolly shoot myself in the afterlife.

    i guess this makes sense u fig ull win it 1/7650... ur also spending 1.6 mil tho in buyins by that time so like u better have done more than just a win
     1
  5. leoslayer leoslayer is offline

    Raleigh, NC
    United States

    Posts: 622
    Joined: Nov 07

    Sep 28th, 2009 (9/28/2009 12:54am) in reply to doubledave22

    well i looked at it that the top mtters have more equity than a sng reg. also as you aproach life changing money ther is a chance that you might lose some slight equity
    if you were up against some pros. also figured that for somebody to win it on say their 5th try i put it at 250,000 to 1. plus my odds are based on winning it next sunday not overall but the next 1 up.
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