Wow hes back. I have actually replied in a post or two as to where you have been. I do hope that you get some srious replies.

I know that you have what you think is a read on his play, now how does he see you? I'm folding here if I'm you. I mean you've hardly invested at all, he may be pot committed and he does this with the big satck still to act behind him. easy fold IMO.

even though as you say rookie been 3betting a lot this is a small trap raise OOP begging for a 4bet shove IMHO

this really is a fold 100% of the time not really much to discuss (unless you playing a donkfest) but this is FT of 100r so you must be able to see this is a trap

Zpaceman, the question really should be, what level do you perceive him to be putting you on? Does he think you're a really good player? Do you have any history with him, etc.

Yes, we have history and this may play into our actions here. In the final few tables of a $1K Venetian Deepstack tourny this summer I shoved a perfect reraise stack over a MP raise from the SB with Q6 (I think) and Rookie woke up with AK in the BB and I sucked-out a massive pot, propelling me to the FT and him on his way out of the tourny.

He was visibly upset about this at the time, his crew subsequently criticized my play in that tournament (I finished 8th when I made one reshove too many) and one of his railers had even confirmed in the chat earlier on in this tourny that he was out to get me.

I don't take things personally when I'm playing, but I think the above gave me the perception that he would somehow try to outplay me and that, in general, he thinks he is a better player than me.

Don't overthink this. You're raising from the button and he has <20 BBs. Regardless of past history, regardless of other external factors, he knows your range is wide on the button and he will be re-stealing wide. Get the chips in.

it looks like the only way to play it is raise/call imo..

 

Originally Posted by Frank1The1Tank

Going to have to agree with what others have said. I really don't think leveling comes much into play here. It's all about stack sizes, positions, and ranges. Based on what you said of him, even though you were caught in a live mtt, he likely just assumes you're a good player. That said, his raise does seem exceptionally strong this early in the FT, and I don't know anything about therookie's game. Like I said in the bel0w thread, it's probably not correct to shove here 100% of the time, but it can't be right to fold here 100% of the time either.

So basically what you are saying is that you don't know 100%?

FWIW, I think AT is a fold here... Doesn't this come down to ranges.. if his range is wide.. how wide?

From a pot odds perspective, it is a 465k bet for a pot of 1119k (assuming he never folds when we shove), so we need 41.5% equity.

I think his range can be somewhat looser than that, e.g.:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.715% 41.70% 04.01% 1490936376 143523048.00 { ATo }
Hand 1: 54.285% 50.27% 04.01% 1797308280 143523048.00 { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A8o+, KQo }

For my equity to be below 41.5% I need to make his range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.361% 35.83% 05.53% 905595612 139736352.00 { ATo }
Hand 1: 58.639% 53.11% 05.53% 1342292388 139736352.00 { 55+, A8s+, A8o+ }

So the question becomes, do we put his range as tight or tighter than that, given that he 3-bets LP raises a lot, has a very robusto BR from recent scores and is definitely playing to win and use his position over me?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.361% 35.83% 05.53% 905595612 139736352.00 { ATo }
Hand 1: 58.639% 53.11% 05.53% 1342292388 139736352.00 { 55+, A8s+, A8o+ }

This is probably the most accurate range, but makes your shove neutral ev in that case. You can probably add KQo, KQs, QJs, into the mix to make it +ev. I think its tight but its still a fold even if it is very slightly +ev.

Well that's the thing: is a player like this going to fold KQ here or KJs or QJs or even JTs? I think not. And if he is going to reraise, he is going to reraise small to make it look strong, just like he did twice over a bigstack at the second-to-last table when he had <20BBs:

pokerstars Game #22308969815: Tournament #120443196, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIV (8000/16000) - 2008/11/23 20:25:56 ET
Table '120443196 84' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: SixthSenSe19 (776543 in chips)
Seat 2: driverseati (556529 in chips)
Seat 3: TherookieQQ9 (280319 in chips)
Seat 5: Teldar (388754 in chips)
Seat 6: Zpaceman (183613 in chips)
Seat 9: germain133 (800560 in chips)
SixthSenSe19: posts the ante 1600
driverseati: posts the ante 1600
TherookieQQ9: posts the ante 1600
Teldar: posts the ante 1600
Zpaceman: posts the ante 1600
germain133: posts the ante 1600
TherookieQQ9: posts small blind 8000
Teldar: posts big blind 16000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Zpaceman [8s 7s]
Zpaceman: folds
germain133: folds
SixthSenSe19: raises 19289 to 35289
driverseati: folds
TherookieQQ9: raises 90211 to 125500
Teldar: folds
SixthSenSe19: folds
Uncalled bet (90211) returned to TherookieQQ9
TherookieQQ9 collected 96178 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 96178 | Rake 0
Seat 1: SixthSenSe19 folded before Flop
Seat 2: driverseati (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: TherookieQQ9 (small blind) collected (96178)
Seat 5: Teldar (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Zpaceman folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: germain133 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
PokerStars Game #22309466829: Tournament #120443196, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXV (10000/20000) - 2008/11/23 20:45:11 ET
Table '120443196 84' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: SixthSenSe19 (1686606 in chips)
Seat 3: TherookieQQ9 (383896 in chips)
Seat 5: Teldar (163764 in chips)
Seat 6: Zpaceman (754052 in chips)
Seat 7: Tmay420 (574989 in chips)
SixthSenSe19: posts the ante 2000
TherookieQQ9: posts the ante 2000
Teldar: posts the ante 2000
Zpaceman: posts the ante 2000
Tmay420: posts the ante 2000
Teldar: posts small blind 10000
Zpaceman: posts big blind 20000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Zpaceman [3c Qc]
Tmay420: folds
SixthSenSe19: raises 29158 to 49158
TherookieQQ9: raises 115842 to 165000
Teldar: folds
Zpaceman: folds
Zpaceman said, "thx"
SixthSenSe19: folds
Uncalled bet (115842) returned to TherookieQQ9
TherookieQQ9 collected 138316 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 138316 | Rake 0
Seat 1: SixthSenSe19 folded before Flop
Seat 3: TherookieQQ9 (button) collected (138316)
Seat 5: Teldar (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Zpaceman (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Tmay420 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

So I think I have +cEV versus his range and, importantly, I don't like having him on my left with a 3-bet stack, so trying to eliminate him is a very important tactic in my attempt to win the tournament (I am playing to win, not move up the money ladder).

If I am bet-folding ATo OTB what should I be bet-calling with? I can't see it is an "easy fold" nor is it an "easy shove", but how much value should I place on potentially eliminating a dangerous opponent versus preserving my stack for better spots (and note that with the stack sizes at the table being fairly short, gaining a big edge in any one hand is unlikely)?

I'll leave your questoin alone as it has to deal with ranges. What he perceives your raising range to be, what he perceives your raise/calling range to be, and therefore, what his range is are all important factors.

This might make for a good tiebreaker:

TherookieQQ9 is a good player and he's on your left. If you fold, he will still be on your left no matter what. If you call, there's a chance that he will be eliminated. Any time you can remove a really good aggressive player from your immediate left, that's a good thing. So if it is determined that shoving and folding have the same EV, then I'd lean towards shoving.

 

Originally Posted by SEABEAST

"he generally makes it less than a full shove even when he has under 20BBs"

kinda feels like you answered your own question here

qft.

and if he was "trapping" wouldnt he flat pre or something. i dont see how 3betting any size w. an ~18 BB stack resembles trapping in any way etc ...

regardless, youve seen him making committing non-all in 3bets in the past, A10 in a button/blind dynamic, pretty standard raise/call i would think.

fold he has aq

if rookie thought youd be folding AT to his resteals when he's obv committed here (so a 3 bet reraise or 3 bet ship is the same thing bc he's never folding to a 4 bet shove with his stack) then he or anyone else would be restealing on your button raises with atc... i really dont see how you could possibly fold this

 

Originally Posted by mathclub

would love to hear what happened here in the end.

would also rather read posts from a good player like zpace than a lot of the other hand analysis that we get in here.

agree^^^^