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"Super-heaters"

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  1. hoosier hoosier is offline

    Reigate
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 148
    Joined: Feb 06

    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 3:06am)

    Been thinking about Brian Townsend's meteoric rise through the poker limits, obviously he has skill, but also, how much of it was a "super-heater" - good run of cards for an abnormally extended period of time? I would assume that out of the thousands of online players that a few of them would get an incredible run of cards for months, perhaps a year. Anyone have a super-heater then normal variance kicked in and you realized you weren't as good as you thought you were? I have been building my bankroll much slower than Townsend, although I'd love to move up that quickly, but it just boggles my mind, given the brutal variance I experience, how someone could move up that quickly without an unusually good run of cards. Don't get me wrong (and start a flaming avalanche), he is much better than I am, but honestly, I have to beleive that he also hit a good run of cards for quite a while as well or his percentage favorites held up repeatedly for an extended period of time.
  2. icoNn icoNn is offline

    United States

    Posts: 14
    Joined: Nov 06

    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 3:10am) in reply to hoosier

    I think it definitely exists. It definitely exists in the opposite way too, which I have been in for hte past 2 months. I'm a long time winning player but for the past 2 months I have gotten CRUSHED. Nothing holds at all. KK is a 47% winner for me. AA is 54%. etc etc etc

    No matter what I hold at any point of a hand, someone is outdrawing me. So I would imagine it can exist in the other direction as well.
  3. USCphildo USCphildo is offline

    Las Vegas, NV
    United States

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    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 3:11am) in reply to hoosier

    its certainly not just a "good run of cards". not trying to flame you, but i would guess you have no idea how many hands he has put in at the poker table. dude played a TON.
     1 
  4. downbylaw11 downbylaw11 is offline

    Surrey
    Canada

    Posts: 4,775
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    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 3:40am) in reply to hoosier

    i believe it. vietcong anyone? the amount of times he gets it in bad, he should lose every cent he puts into a poker site. i was on a heater last week where i finished 2nd in a 10 mtt, and won 2 of 3 4.40's i played in 2 days. and then it was over like that and it was back to grinding. i do believe someone could run god like for an abnormal amount of time. thats the thing about percentages. theres no science to know when theyll even out
  5. SICKTIGHT311 SICKTIGHT311 is offline

    Long Beach, CA
    United States

    Posts: 24,818
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    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 3:41am) in reply to hoosier

    I'll take a "super-heater" with an order of onion rings please. Thank you.
  6. neumann68005 neumann68005 is offline

    Posts: 180
    Joined: Apr 06

    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 3:44am) in reply to hoosier

    i lolddddddd ^^^^^^^^
  7. CalBandGreat CalBandGreat is offline

    Irvine, CA
    United States

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    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 4:54am) in reply to hoosier

    Archie K. (can't remember his last name) went on like a $30+ million heater in Vegas playing heads-up poker and craps from stories that I have read, sorry no link though. I would really like to read some more stroies about this guy, link any1?
     
  8. Sh1p The Ch1ps Sh1p The Ch1ps is offline

    Fort Worth, TX
    United States

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    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 5:13am) in reply to CalBandGreat

    Here is the link to Archie.

    http://www.seiyuu.com/okamoto/poker/misc/archie.htm
  9. Disrespect Disrespect is offline

    Adelaide
    Australia

    Posts: 1,608
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    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 6:03am) in reply to Sh1p The Ch1ps

    If there's an opposite I'd say premier is on it.
  10. CJDeman CJDeman is offline

    Sydney
    Australia

    Posts: 820
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    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 6:39am) in reply to Disrespect

    Yeah, I had a fantastic run on Paradise and Prima last year (for my stakes) and now I cant win shit.
     
  11. hoosier hoosier is offline

    Reigate
    United Kingdom

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    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 7:04am) in reply to USCphildo

    I'm sure it is not just a good run of cards, but how much of it was a good run of cards - 70% his talent 30% a good run??? To move up through the minefield of donkeys unscathed like that he had to have been lucky - maybe not suckout lucky, but perhaps lucky in the sense that his favorite hands actually held up repeatedly.
    Thread Starter
  12. CalBandGreat CalBandGreat is offline

    Irvine, CA
    United States

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    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 7:46am) in reply to hoosier

    Thanks for link Sh1p, amazing story. I have seen parts of the story before, but never this complete one about "The Run". I really like Konik's writing, I just picked up his book on sports betting, but haven't started it yet. Also sorry for exaggerating it was only 17 million :).

    Anyone know who Mr. X is? I'm guessing it is the CEO of Bellagio, I forgot his name though, Baldwin? Baxter?
     
  13. CalBandGreat CalBandGreat is offline

    Irvine, CA
    United States

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    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 7:48am) in reply to hoosier

    What happened to Archie?? What type of bad run is Premier on?
     
  14. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

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    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 8:36am) in reply to hoosier

    "God made your balls a little bigger. You're too good."
  15. LesW LesW is offline

    Boston, MA
    United States

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    Dec 6th, 2007 (12/6/2007 9:06am) in reply to EyeKnows

    6 month heater yummy
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