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Before I post the hand, the shover is a reg and knows what he's doing and clearly shoving a very very wide range! I post results later but I tell you that I made the call for the following reasons:
1. He played well and I'm sure he would've shoved almost every hand at this point and would've collected like 10-20% of his stack in every hand. I simply thought there won't better a better spot in the near future.
2. If one shorty busts another shorty we're sitting there with even stacks and we would've pretty much gambled for the win since nomatter who's first in gonna shove until someone wakes up with a hand and bust the shover or get sucked out. I kinda treated the situation like it was Heads Up since if I win the hand I'm winning the tourney obviously. Due to ICM it's of course not like a HU situation.
So, here's the hand, what do you guys think? Standard call or borderline fold or what?
Payouts:
1. $30,909
2. $22,254
3. $16,485
4. $12,363
5. $ 8,654
pokerstars Hand #83382875206: Tournament #589010008, $210.80+$4.20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXVIII (25000/50000) - 2012/07/16 2:04:08 CET [2012/07/15 20:04:08 ET]
Table '589010008 60' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: RedIceRap (807850 in chips)
Seat 2: jpa_25 (426952 in chips)
Seat 4: elpipsi87 (251922 in chips)
Seat 8: Fresh_oO_D (668056 in chips)
Seat 9: Lilla London (191220 in chips)
RedIceRap: posts the ante 10000
jpa_25: posts the ante 10000
elpipsi87: posts the ante 10000
Fresh_oO_D: posts the ante 10000
Lilla London: posts the ante 10000
RedIceRap: posts small blind 25000
jpa_25: posts big blind 50000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RedIceRap [Ah Ts]
elpipsi87: folds
Fresh_oO_D: raises 608056 to 658056 and is all-in
Lilla London: folds
RedIceRap: raises 139794 to 797850 and is all-in -
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Joined: Dec 09Jul 18th, 2012 (7/18/2012 2:02am) in reply to Bisull
Even if he is shoving 100% of his range here you are what? 62%? Doesn't seem like a spot to call off vs the 2nd big stack, if any other player at table, then snaaaaaaapppppp!!!! You say there aren't any better spots? Being first in and shoving 100% of your range is a better spot as the CL imo.
Edited By: Getumboy Jul 18th, 2012 at 02:15 AM
If you call and win (~60% of the time) your chip equity will be ~63%, if you call and lose (~40% of the time) your chip equity becomes 6%. At current state, your chip equity is ~35% meaning that if you call and win 60% of the time, this will only increase your chip equity by 3% ((.60*.63)-.35) but the other 40% of the time you are left with only 6% equity.
I'm kind of confusing myself so I'm done, hope at least something makes sense out of this nonsense I'm posting.
EDIT: So if my calcs are correct (which they prob are not), I think it is a $2k +ev call so it is profitable but one hell of a risk for only 50% of the diff between 5th and 4th.
Reason: grammartard -
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Joined: Oct 06Jul 18th, 2012 (7/18/2012 2:07am) in reply to RedIceRap
Am I right in reading that you are chip leader but with only 16BB and the shortstack has only 4BB? Even 4th in chips has only 5BB? I think the fact it's this shallow is what makes this hand unusual.
Edited By: daughton Jul 18th, 2012 at 02:08 AM
This is a tough call.
I hate calling shoves from the blind with ATo but I think you have to...
But you are being shoved on by 2nd in chips as he, being a reg, must be able to see the shorties as well. Why would he shove into you unless he has a hand or looks at the stacks and realises you're not going to call without a big hand. I guess if you know him you try to estimate what he'd do this with (if you can confidently fathom which of the above is his motivation) and just try to keep in mind you need a better hand to call than to shove with. Is ATo better than most hands 2nd in chips shoves into chip leader here?
I think it's only a very small chance he is doing this with big pairs. That leaves mid pairs and broadway cards that he doesn't expect a call from without premium - he reasons unlikely you hold.
I say make the call those blinds are big and if you fold you may not get another hand before busting perhaps only one place better. I think given the possibility this is a thinking player and thinks you won't call due to shorties and that you you are effectively either 4th or 1st unless you get very lucky if you fold this that you make this call. -
I'm assuming you're trying to win the tourney, in which case I think it's a call. I understand the ICM argument and stuff but I'm sure hes shoving almost all aces and pairs, along with all broadway combos. If this tournament was way out of your league then I would understand a fold but I don't think I'm ever folding in this spot....
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That's so close. I think A8s/A9s+,ATo+,77+ or ATs+,AJo+,88+
Edited By: tyson219 Jul 18th, 2012 at 03:02 AM -
RedIceRap
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Originally Posted by Bisull
agree that if villain is competent he's prolly shipping wide since you should have a tighter calling range with 2 players around or below a 5bb stack.
I'd still stick to a tight calling range here and I think ATo is one of the bottom hands I call here with, like A9s+ATo+77+ ... just a quick answerThanks guys for the replys! This is pretty much the range I would call with. I forgot to mention that there's a very good chance that I have him dominated. No way he folds A2o+ and I think most suited Tx or even all suited hands get shoved there. I noticed pretty quickly that he shoved into small stacks on the BB so everybody folded and the 4BB small stack in the BB folded as well, he also got called once and had complete air, some non-connected offsuit trash hand, etc. Basicly the guy who shoved first in won the pot and it increases the stack by a lot, so I simply wanted to end this right there. And the argument that I rather should keep shoving myself doesn't really matter here, because everybody is sooo short and I need to get hands, else two lost showdowns vs anybody and I'm out as fifth. Honestly, I thought if I fold ATo here I prolly should fold everything but like TT+, since even with AK I'm up against live cards most of the time and I simply couldn't be such a nit and fold ATo. I kinda liked the calculation since I really thought I had much more than 63% vs any two, but I have at least 60%, there's A LOT of money in the pot preflop, and I end it right there getting it in ahead or even way ahead and very rarerly behind, so I'm sure I wouldn't find a better spot fast enough to win this thing, and the ranges above look good and I agree with them.Originally Posted by tyson219
That's so close. I think A8s/A9s+,ATo+,77+ or ATs+,AJo+,88+
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Joined: Mar 10Jul 18th, 2012 (7/18/2012 2:53pm) in reply to RedIceRap
i just started my session but will do math later... Prty sure its a fold, ICM wise.
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Joined: Mar 10Jul 19th, 2012 (7/19/2012 6:16pm) in reply to iPlayTourneys
Based on my previous article: ICM 101
Everything is based on assumption obviously. So I'm assuming fresh will shove: 22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,A2o+,K8o+,Q9 o+,JTo (33.6%)
The BB will call: 88+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+ (7.4%)
He will overcall: TT+,AQs+,AKo (3.8%)
Our Eq vs Fresh, HU = 56.7%
Our Eq vs Fresh + BB = 20.05%
BB's Eq vs Fresh = 64.5%
Our Eq in the side pot vs Fresh is the same as our eq. HU
Now we've got to look over all the possible scenario's and how they affect the value of our stack:
And then finish the calculation:
The conclusion is that you need a minimum of 65% equity to make a good call.. that means TT+ AK.
So here we have a fold with AT.. -
RedIceRap
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ok tyvm this looks pretty sick. i dont really understand everything in there but i know for sure that his shoving range is not 33.6%. he shoved 64o from mp or so before when i woke up with 88 behind him (replay is running now), so he def shoves much wider than that. his shoving frequency also kinda showed that hes far from a nit when it comes to shoving first in. i just tried a few things in pokerstove and am pretty sure that he shoves at least 60%, probably even wider. so with the range u gave him it's pretty close with a little over 1k difference, so it's indeed all about the assuptions and yeah i def paid attention to this table cause i was 1tabling it and if he really shoves 60+%, can i assume that i made the right call? again, tyvm for the hard work!
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Joined: Mar 10Jul 20th, 2012 (7/20/2012 2:43am) in reply to RedIceRap
Assuming he shoves 60%. nothing really changes for the BBs range. we are still loosing money by calling here.
With AT you have around 60% eq. and you want a minimum of 65% for it to be profitable. That ends up being almost the same range, only add 99 in it as well....... -
tyson219
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Joined: Mar 10Jul 20th, 2012 (7/20/2012 11:54am) in reply to tyson219
I'm no expert with nash ICM but if I understand it correctly nash assumes unexploited ranges and villain's almost never shove/call optimal ranges. So we have to adjust to the range of villain (like we did in my example).
So our calculations are based upon our read's vs specific villain(s) instead of assuming he plays perfect poker.
nog 100%, since im no nash expert but maybe someone can confirm this? -
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Joined: Mar 11Jul 20th, 2012 (7/20/2012 1:53pm) in reply to iPlayTourneys
Am i incorrect in highlighting the problem with using these strict icm rules is it does not take into account the probable incorrect calling ranges of the other villains on the table...what if redice passes up this spot and then shoves a few hands later and is called by an incorrect range and knocked out/ crippled....
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Joined: Mar 10Jul 20th, 2012 (7/20/2012 2:12pm) in reply to theairplane
Possible, but that shouldn't justify you to make a mistake because others might make mistakes.
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Joined: Jul 12Jul 25th, 2012 (7/25/2012 11:10am) in reply to norv
must be why im a donk, coz i call here ALL day!!, redicerap is correct in saying that he shoves here soooooo wide imo... at least i would in his position.. he has to be thinking youll call no more than your top 5% range or something? therefor he would be shoving at very least 60% of his range... is that right?
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Joined: Dec 11Jul 25th, 2012 (7/25/2012 10:27pm) in reply to gigantorrr
Good stuff iPlay. I appreciate the in depth responses even as a lurker. I looked into ICM 101 as well, very helpful. Just wanted to thank you for the hard work you've put in.
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Joined: Mar 10Jul 26th, 2012 (7/26/2012 1:05am) in reply to chronkie
yes, more less right.Originally Posted by gigantorrr
must be why im a donk, coz i call here ALL day!!, redicerap is correct in saying that he shoves here soooooo wide imo... at least i would in his position.. he has to be thinking youll call no more than your top 5% range or something? therefor he would be shoving at very least 60% of his range... is that right?
TYOriginally Posted by chronkie
Good stuff iPlay. I appreciate the in depth responses even as a lurker. I looked into ICM 101 as well, very helpful. Just wanted to thank you for the hard work you've put in.
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Joined: Sep 07Jul 26th, 2012 (7/26/2012 1:30am) in reply to iPlayTourneys
I plugged it into the nash calculator in case anyone was curious.
Edited By: bonflizubi Jul 26th, 2012 at 01:31 AM
It says he should be shoving 51.4%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q2s+ Q8o+ J2s+ J8o+ T6s+ T8o+ 95s+ 98o 85s+ 75s+ 64s+ 54s
and that RIR should be calling 7.1%, 88+ ATs+ AJo+
If we think that he is shoving wider than nash at that 60% figure it makes it really close borderline here.
http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sn...6=&s7=&s8=&s9= -
ronnieb122
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i hate this spot so much i mean id be so tempted to fold jump a couple of spots but i mean its pretty much ftw i think i call here and close my eyes defo bottom of my calling range here but i cant see anymore better spots to pretty much win the tourney than this. If you bust like 4th/3rd i defo feel this would be a hand youd look back on and wished you had called i guess i call here.
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Edited By: bonflizubi Jul 26th, 2012 at 04:36 AMI should have said ICM calculator to answer RIROriginally Posted by bonflizubi
I plugged it into the ICM calculator in case anyone was curious.
It says he should be shoving 51.4%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q2s+ Q8o+ J2s+ J8o+ T6s+ T8o+ 95s+ 98o 85s+ 75s+ 64s+ 54s
and that RIR should be calling 7.1%, 88+ ATs+ AJo+
If we think that he is shoving wider than nash at that 60% figure it makes it really close borderline here.
http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sn...6=&s7=&s8=&s9=
Nash is the equilibrium point fora range and could be applied to cEV or $EV. In this case the percentages are the nash equilibrium ranges for an ICM calculation.arent nash and icm two different things? i mean cEV and $EV, and stuff i dont even really have a clue of
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Nice post. stupid but i didnt knew about this for MTTs actually..Originally Posted by bonflizubi
I should have said ICM calculator to answer RIR
Nash is the equilibrium point fora range and could be applied to cEV or $EV. In this case the percentages are the nash equilibrium ranges for an ICM calculation.
I like it a lot. Thanks for post.
Although 1 thing that is a problem with these ranges. They are all optimal but are they also unexploitable? Are the call ranges assumed/based on the shove ranges? Or are they unexploitable ranges?
Because if our assumptions of the player changes (i doubt only few people shove 100% optimal) our ranges change as well. That is why my ICM calculation is slightly (not much) different then this one. -
tyson219
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It's a nash equilibrium outcome, which is predicated on the assumption that both players will shove/call optimally.
Edited By: tyson219 Jul 26th, 2012 at 09:37 PM
I know the shoving range is unexploitable. I thought the calling range was unexploitable, but is there such a thing? Obviously the calling range is unexploitable IF the opener is shoving an unexploitable range as well. But since any calling range must be based on an assumption of the shoving range, is there ever an unexploitable calling range? I haven't thought much about it or done any math...just curious if anyone knows. -
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Joined: Feb 08Jul 26th, 2012 (7/26/2012 9:55pm) in reply to tyson219
One of those hands that I feel like if you fold and end up winning the tourney you won't think twice about it but you fold and get 4th or 5th you'll look back and say you missed a spot. I personally can't see a fold here if you're playing for 1st. If you knock villain out in this hand you're pretty much guaranteed top 2. Results?
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Joined: Sep 07Jul 27th, 2012 (7/27/2012 2:28am) in reply to tyson219
The shoving range is unexploitable.Originally Posted by tyson219
It's a nash equilibrium outcome, which is predicated on the assumption that both players will shove/call optimally.
I know the shoving range is unexploitable. I thought the calling range was unexploitable, but is there such a thing? Obviously the calling range is unexploitable IF the opener is shoving an unexploitable range as well. But since any calling range must be based on an assumption of the shoving range, is there ever an unexploitable calling range? I haven't thought much about it or done any math...just curious if anyone knows.
The calling range is unexploitable vs only that shoving range. If teh shoving range tightens, then the calling range needs to tighten as well to be unexploitable. If the shoving range loosens, then the unexploitable calling range loosens as well.
That';s why it's called a NAsh Equilibrium - everything is equally unexploitable. -
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