Come play the end of a SNG with me! I am PunkinBear on FTP. In the endgame of a SNG, there are often a few spots where raising with nothing is profitable. This particular SNG had several of those spots, and I'd like to share my thoughts on each hand (in bold)

*********** # 30 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155140666: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 80/160 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 1:54:27 ET
Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,340)
Seat 2: tommyk (630)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (2,515)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (3,610)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (2,230)
Seat 9: race62 (3,175)
race62 posts the small blind of 80
babyfeeg posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [Ad Th]
tommyk raises to 630, and is all in

Tommyk has a stack of 3.9xBB, and is next to take the BB. Therefore I range him pretty wide. I range him on J10, Q9+, K8+, A2+, 22+.

ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear folds

My ATo fares quite well against his range, (about a 55-45 fave), but this is a situation where if I just call I will be potentially forced in by another player if they do have a hand, so I consider this a raise/fold spot. I pass up the smallish 55-45 edge to avoid the three players behind me potentially putting me in grave danger.

ludedude128 folds
race62 folds
babyfeeg folds
Uncalled bet of 470 returned to tommyk
tommyk mucks
tommyk wins the pot (400)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 400 | Rake 0
Seat 1: babyfeeg (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: tommyk collected (400)
Seat 3: ScientistSET didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: race62 (small blind) folded before the Flop

*********** # 31 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155142223: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 80/160 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 1:54:52 ET

Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,180)
Seat 2: tommyk (870)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (2,515)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (3,610)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (2,230)
Seat 9: race62 (3,095)
babyfeeg posts the small blind of 80
tommyk posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [8c 8d]
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear raises to 480

A standard raise here with 88.

ludedude128 folds
race62 folds
babyfeeg folds
tommyk folds
Uncalled bet of 320 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (400)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 400 | Rake 0
Seat 1: babyfeeg (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: tommyk (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: ScientistSET didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear collected (400)
Seat 8: ludedude128 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: race62 (button) didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 32 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155144071: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 80/160 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 1:55:23 ET

Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,100)
Seat 2: tommyk (710)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (2,515)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (3,850)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (2,230)
Seat 9: race62 (3,095)
tommyk posts the small blind of 80
ScientistSET posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [9d Qd]
PunkinBear folds

Standard fold UTG 6-handed.

ludedude128 folds
race62 folds
babyfeeg raises to 480
tommyk folds
ScientistSET calls 320
*** FLOP *** [9s 7c 5h]
ScientistSET checks
babyfeeg bets 620, and is all in
ScientistSET folds
Uncalled bet of 620 returned to babyfeeg
babyfeeg mucks
babyfeeg wins the pot (1,040)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1,040 | Rake 0
Board: [9s 7c 5h]
Seat 1: babyfeeg (button) collected (1,040)
Seat 2: tommyk (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: ScientistSET (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: PunkinBear didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: ludedude128 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: race62 didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 33 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155146115: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 1:55:56 ET

Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,660)
Seat 2: tommyk (630)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (2,035)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (3,850)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (2,230)
Seat 9: race62 (3,095)
ScientistSET posts the small blind of 100
PunkinBear posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [4s Jc]
ludedude128 folds
race62 folds
babyfeeg folds
tommyk folds
ScientistSET folds
Uncalled bet of 100 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (200)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 200 | Rake 0
Seat 1: babyfeeg didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: tommyk (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: PunkinBear (big blind) collected (200)
Seat 8: ludedude128 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: race62 didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 34 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155147079: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 1:56:11 ET

Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,660)
Seat 2: tommyk (630)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,935)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (3,950)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (2,230)
Seat 9: race62 (3,095)
PunkinBear posts the small blind of 100
ludedude128 posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [9c Kh]
race62 folds
babyfeeg folds
tommyk folds
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear raises to 600

Standard raise with any two cards here. Ludedude is in a position where he would have to risk his third place standing to double, and potentially miss cashing. He feels the FEAR and folds. Since Lude will likely fold 75% or more of his holdings, it is correct to raise with any two.

Let's take away my cards (give me a Barry Bonds Rookie and a Draw Four Uno card instead) and do the math.

If I raise to 600 and win, I win 200.
If I raise to 600 and get called/reraised, I lose 600.

Since 200x3=600x1, if he folds 75% of the time, I can raise with air!

Say he folds 80% of the time for instance:

In 100 trials, I win 200 chips when he folds, 80 times for a total of 16000 chips.
In 100 trials, I lose 600 chips when he plays, 20 times for a total of 12000 chips.
That's +4000, and divided by 100, thats 40 chips per hand. VERY +EV!

A 40 chip gain per hand, raising with air! The fact that I have cards at all is just a bonus here.

So.... what's 75%? KJ is a hand that beats 75% of all of the hands out there. So if you feel your opponent will fold KJ here, whether because he is tight, or the situation demands it, it's go time!

ludedude128 folds
Uncalled bet of 400 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (400)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 400 | Rake 0
Seat 1: babyfeeg didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: tommyk didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (small blind) collected (400)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: race62 didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 35 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155148514: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 1:56:35 ET

Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,660)
Seat 2: tommyk (630)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,935)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (4,150)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (2,030)
Seat 9: race62 (3,095)
ludedude128 posts the small blind of 100
race62 posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [Ad 9c]
babyfeeg folds
tommyk folds
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear raises to 600

Raising based on hand strength here. Though I suspect the BB might fold enough to justify a raise with anything, I'm not looking to mess with the player that can hurt me the most just yet, especially since I have been active, and I'm not sure yet whether race has it in his repertoire to fight back without a hand.

ludedude128 folds
race62 folds
Uncalled bet of 400 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (500)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 500 | Rake 0
Seat 1: babyfeeg didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: tommyk didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: ScientistSET didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (button) collected (500)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: race62 (big blind) folded before the Flop

*********** # 36 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155149713: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 1:56:56 ET

Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,660)
Seat 2: tommyk (630)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,935)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (4,450)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (1,930)
Seat 9: race62 (2,895)
race62 posts the small blind of 100
babyfeeg posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [6c Js]
tommyk folds
ScientistSET calls 200
PunkinBear folds

No reason to get involved here. Be fast, but be first.

ludedude128 raises to 800
race62 folds
babyfeeg folds
ScientistSET folds
Uncalled bet of 600 returned to ludedude128
ludedude128 mucks
ludedude128 wins the pot (700)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 700 | Rake 0
Seat 1: babyfeeg (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: tommyk didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: ScientistSET folded before the Flop
Seat 6: PunkinBear didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (button) collected (700)
Seat 9: race62 (small blind) folded before the Flop

*********** # 37 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155151884: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 1:57:31 ET

Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,460)
Seat 2: tommyk (630)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,735)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (4,450)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (2,430)
Seat 9: race62 (2,795)
babyfeeg posts the small blind of 100
tommyk posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [6d 2h]
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear folds

Not quite what I'm looking to push with yet.

ludedude128 raises to 600

Lude's raise from late position with A9o makes sense here, based on hand strength.

race62 folds
babyfeeg folds
tommyk raises to 630, and is all in

It's 430 more for Tommyk to shove, and since the pot will be 1360 when Lude calls, Tommyk needs a 31.8% chance (430/1360) to make this call. With 88 he has that easily. Good call.

A good call from the BB
ludedude128 calls 30
tommyk shows [8h 8s]
ludedude128 shows [As 9d]
*** FLOP *** [7s 7c Ad]
*** TURN *** [7s 7c Ad] [Qc]
*** RIVER *** [7s 7c Ad Qc] [Kh]
tommyk shows two pair, Eights and Sevens
ludedude128 shows two pair, Aces and Sevens
ludedude128 wins the pot (1,360) with two pair, Aces and Sevens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1,360 | Rake 0
Board: [7s 7c Ad Qc Kh]
Seat 1: babyfeeg (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: tommyk (big blind) showed [8h 8s] and lost with two pair, Eights and Sevens
Seat 3: ScientistSET didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: ludedude128 showed [As 9d] and won (1,360) with two pair, Aces and Sevens
Seat 9: race62 (button) didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 38 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155153771: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 1:58:02 ET

Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,360)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,735)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (4,450)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (3,160)
Seat 9: race62 (2,795)
ScientistSET posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [Td Jc]
PunkinBear folds
ludedude128 raises to 800
race62 folds
babyfeeg folds
ScientistSET has 15 seconds left to act
ScientistSET has timed out
ScientistSET folds
Uncalled bet of 600 returned to ludedude128
ludedude128 shows [7d 7h] (a pair of Sevens)
ludedude128 wins the pot (400)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 400 | Rake 0
Seat 1: babyfeeg (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: PunkinBear didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: ludedude128 collected (400)
Seat 9: race62 didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 39 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155156713: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 1:58:50 ET

Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,360)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,535), is sitting out
Seat 6: PunkinBear (4,450)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (3,360)
Seat 9: race62 (2,795)
ScientistSET posts the small blind of 120
PunkinBear posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [8c 7c]
ludedude128 folds
race62 folds
babyfeeg folds
ScientistSET folds
Uncalled bet of 120 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (240)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 240 | Rake 0
Seat 1: babyfeeg didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: PunkinBear (big blind) collected (240)
Seat 8: ludedude128 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: race62 didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 40 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155157492: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 1:59:02 ET

Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,360)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,415)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (4,570)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (3,360)
Seat 9: race62 (2,795)
PunkinBear posts the small blind of 120
ludedude128 posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [Th As]
race62 folds
babyfeeg folds
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear raises to 720

Standard raise with ATo.

ludedude128 folds
Uncalled bet of 480 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (480)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 480 | Rake 0
Seat 1: babyfeeg didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (small blind) collected (480)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: race62 didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 41 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155158542: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 1:59:19 ET

Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,360)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,415)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (4,810)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (3,120)
Seat 9: race62 (2,795)
ludedude128 posts the small blind of 120
race62 posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [6h 2s]
babyfeeg folds
ScientistSET has 15 seconds left to act
ScientistSET has timed out
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear raises to 720

From the button, I can raise any two cards here because I am playing against the midstack, ang both shortstacks are out of the hand already. Since BB folds KJ, and hasn't shown tendencies to reraise with nothing, it's go time! The fact that I have any cards at all is a mere bonus.

ludedude128 folds
race62 folds
Uncalled bet of 480 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (600)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 600 | Rake 0
Seat 1: babyfeeg didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: ScientistSET didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (button) collected (600)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: race62 (big blind) folded before the Flop

*********** # 42 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155161482: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:00:07 ET

Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,360)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,415), is sitting out
Seat 6: PunkinBear (5,170)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (3,000)
Seat 9: race62 (2,555)
race62 posts the small blind of 120
babyfeeg posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [2c 4s]
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear folds

Raising against the shortstack isn't the right play. They have the least to lose by trying to double thru me. Concentrate on the midstacks.

ludedude128 raises to 480

Note the minraise instead of 3x. This is usually weak, but be very careful not to assume a minraise is weak for sure.

race62 folds
babyfeeg folds
Uncalled bet of 240 returned to ludedude128
ludedude128 mucks
ludedude128 wins the pot (600)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 600 | Rake 0
Seat 1: babyfeeg (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: ScientistSET didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (button) collected (600)
Seat 9: race62 (small blind) folded before the Flop

*********** # 43 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155162724: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:00:27 ET

Seat 1: babyfeeg (1,120)
Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,415)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (5,170)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (3,360)
Seat 9: race62 (2,435)
babyfeeg posts the small blind of 120
ScientistSET posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [5d Kd]
PunkinBear folds
ludedude128 raises to 1,000

4x with ATo. Good time to raise, but I dislike the amount. 3x will do. This raise effectively gives race the chance to shove, potcommitting Lude. If he reraises 3x, he can get away if race reraises. Since race has not shown a propensity to raise with nothing, ensuring you are not pot committed here is the best way.

race62 folds
babyfeeg raises to 1,120, and is all in

Great call with JJ, based on a prior read of an A9 raise by lude. Time to take a stand.

ScientistSET folds
ludedude128 calls 120
babyfeeg shows [Jd Js]
ludedude128 shows [Tc Ad]
*** FLOP *** [7c 5c Ac]
*** TURN *** [7c 5c Ac] [9c]
*** RIVER *** [7c 5c Ac 9c] [Ts]
babyfeeg shows a pair of Jacks
ludedude128 shows a flush, Ace high
ludedude128 wins the pot (2,480) with a flush, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,480 | Rake 0
Board: [7c 5c Ac 9c Ts]
Seat 1: babyfeeg (small blind) showed [Jd Js] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 3: ScientistSET (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: PunkinBear didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: ludedude128 showed [Tc Ad] and won (2,480) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 9: race62 (button) didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 44 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155164969: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:01:05 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,175)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (5,170)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (4,720)
Seat 9: race62 (2,435)
ScientistSET posts the small blind of 120
PunkinBear posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [Tc 6h]
ludedude128 folds
race62 folds
ScientistSET folds
Uncalled bet of 120 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (240)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 240 | Rake 0
Seat 3: ScientistSET (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: PunkinBear (big blind) collected (240)
Seat 8: ludedude128 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: race62 didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 45 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155165648: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:01:16 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,055)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (5,290)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (4,720)
Seat 9: race62 (2,435)
PunkinBear posts the small blind of 120
ludedude128 posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [Ah 7d]
race62 raises to 480

This UTG minimum raise means one of two things:

- He is slowplaying a monster (AA-KK)
- He has a "sort of" good hand that he doesn't want to commit himself with, being that there is an alive shortstack. (Q9+, K8+, A2-A9, 22-66)

Note: I put A10-AK, 77-QQ out of his range here. Most likely he will raise more with these strong but vulnerable holdings.

ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear folds

With the range above, and the likelihood that Race FEARS not cashing, I should reraise because most likely the only hands in his range that he calls are AA-KK. If he is particularly loose for this level, which we haven't seen an indication of, he will also call KQ, A9, 22-66. The A7 I have defends nicely against all but the A9. Reraise to 1440 is the correct play with the shortstack still alive. If Science wasn't here, fold is best.

I missed this spot, because race would lay down to a reraise more often than 75% of the time, given the range that I put him on.

ludedude128 calls 240
*** FLOP *** [8h 8c 3h]
ludedude128 checks
race62 checks
*** TURN *** [8h 8c 3h] [2c]
ludedude128 bets 500
race62 calls 500
*** RIVER *** [8h 8c 3h 2c] [8d]
ludedude128 has 15 seconds left to act
ludedude128 bets 1,680
race62 folds
Uncalled bet of 1,680 returned to ludedude128
ludedude128 mucks
ludedude128 wins the pot (2,080)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,080 | Rake 0
Board: [8h 8c 3h 2c 8d]
Seat 3: ScientistSET (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: ludedude128 (big blind) collected (2,080)
Seat 9: race62 folded on the River

*********** # 46 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155169746: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:02:25 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,055)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (5,170)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (5,820)
Seat 9: race62 (1,455)
ludedude128 posts the small blind of 150
race62 posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [3s 7h]
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear raises to 900

Race will likely fight to stay alive (FEAR) and will fold 75% of the time.

ludedude128 folds
race62 folds
Uncalled bet of 600 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (750)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 750 | Rake 0
Seat 3: ScientistSET didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (button) collected (750)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: race62 (big blind) folded before the Flop

*********** # 47 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155170692: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:02:40 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (1,055)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (5,620)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (5,670)
Seat 9: race62 (1,155)
race62 posts the small blind of 150
ScientistSET posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [3s Qs]
PunkinBear raises to 900

This play is read based, because science and race have both shown no willingness to risk not cashing, and have the FEAR.

ludedude128 folds
race62 folds
ScientistSET folds
Uncalled bet of 600 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (750)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 750 | Rake 0
Seat 3: ScientistSET (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: PunkinBear collected (750)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: race62 (small blind) folded before the Flop

*********** # 48 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155171456: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:02:53 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (755)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (6,070)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (5,670)
Seat 9: race62 (1,005)
ScientistSET posts the small blind of 150
PunkinBear posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [6s 4d]
ludedude128 folds
race62 folds
ScientistSET folds
Uncalled bet of 150 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (300)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 300 | Rake 0
Seat 3: ScientistSET (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: PunkinBear (big blind) collected (300)
Seat 8: ludedude128 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: race62 (button) didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 49 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155171936: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:03:02 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (605)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (6,220)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (5,670)
Seat 9: race62 (1,005)
PunkinBear posts the small blind of 150
ludedude128 posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [8c 4d]
race62 folds
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear raises to 900

Lude hasn't played back at anyone yet, so a raise makes sense, given his stack size and a FEAR of playing the chipleader.

ludedude128 folds
Uncalled bet of 600 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (600)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 600 | Rake 0
Seat 3: ScientistSET (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (small blind) collected (600)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: race62 didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 50 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155172765: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:03:17 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (605)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (6,520)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (5,370)
Seat 9: race62 (1,005)
ludedude128 posts the small blind of 150
race62 posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [4c 3c]
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear raises to 900

Race is short, but with science in, they are fighting for third. FEAR of not cashing leads to yet another position raise.

ludedude128 folds

This is a mistake. Since I have been involved very often, I must have a wide range of hands, and would have to fold 75%+ of the time to a reraise. Lude should reraise with any two. Since he's not playing back, I'm shooting all day long.

race62 folds
Uncalled bet of 600 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (750)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 750 | Rake 0
Seat 3: ScientistSET didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (button) collected (750)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: race62 (big blind) folded before the Flop

*********** # 51 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155173767: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:03:34 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (605)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (6,970)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (5,220)
Seat 9: race62 (705)
race62 posts the small blind of 150
ScientistSET posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [As 5s]
PunkinBear raises to 900

Here, Science is in the BB, and is committed. I am raising on hand strength only.

ludedude128 raises to 1,500

Lude reraises and plays back for the first time. I assume he has a very good hand (big pair, AK, AQ). His bet is horrible though, as I must call 600 more to see a pot of what will be 3450, and a flop.

race62 folds
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear calls 600
*** FLOP *** [8d Ts Qh]
PunkinBear checks

This flop is no good. I check, intending to fold to any bet.

ludedude128 checks

Since there are draws out there and slowplaying gives away free cards, I must assume that Lude missed. AK is the most likely scenario. 77, 99 are possibilities, as is AJ.

*** TURN *** [8d Ts Qh] [Ks]

The turn is a double edged sword. It gives me a 26% one card nut draw. However, the King very likely improved lude's hand.

PunkinBear checks

I check, trying to keep the pot small, hoping Lude will make a bet-sizing error.

ludedude128 bets 1,000

Which is a bet-sizing error. Lude should fire a real bet at this. FEAR.

PunkinBear raises to 5,470, and is all in

I have 3 options here, fold, call, raise allin....let's look at all three:

Call:

I only need a 18% chance of winning the hand to make this call because 1000 (my call) is 18% of what the pot will be if I call (5450). My draw is worth 26%. If I was last to act on the next betting round, this would be my choice, because I would have that extra read.

Fold:

Since we have determined that calling gives us an 8% edge, folding is out of the question. The fold is too weak here.

Reraise allin:

If I reraise allin, my bet is effectively 3700 into a pot of 5450. I only need to make him fold 38% of the time with this bet. I do not believe I have that much chance here. However, when you subtract the 26% chance I have of making my hand, he must fold merely 12% of the time for this shove to work!

Given these factors:

- He has been playing scared, and FEARS not cashing.
- My checkraise reps a real hand.
- My AK read might be off.

I easily have the 12% I need. Since I am out of position, this is the play I use, effectively removing any position advantage he has on the river.

ludedude128 has 15 seconds left to act
ludedude128 folds
Uncalled bet of 4,470 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (5,450)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5,450 | Rake 0
Board: [8d Ts Qh Ks]
Seat 3: ScientistSET (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: PunkinBear collected (5,450)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (button) folded on the Turn
Seat 9: race62 (small blind) folded before the Flop

*********** # 52 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155178415: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 200/400 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:04:54 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (305)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (9,920)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (2,720)
Seat 9: race62 (555)
ScientistSET posts the small blind of 200
PunkinBear posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [9h 8s]
PunkinBear: gf, aj

Doubt this lame chat attempt will work, but why not try?

ludedude128 raises to 800

Lude minraises. Either monster, or just an above average hand. More likely just above average.

race62 folds
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear raises to 9,920, and is all in

Lude will fold all but the very best hands here, so I force him to play for every chip he has and risk not cashing.

ludedude128 has 15 seconds left to act
ludedude128 folds
Uncalled bet of 9,120 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (1,800)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1,800 | Rake 0
Seat 3: ScientistSET (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: PunkinBear (big blind) collected (1,800)
Seat 8: ludedude128 folded before the Flop
Seat 9: race62 (button) didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 53 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155180891: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 200/400 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:05:38 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (105)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (10,920)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (1,920)
Seat 9: race62 (555)
PunkinBear posts the small blind of 200
ludedude128 posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [9h Qh]
race62 folds
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear raises to 1,920

With Lude's stack safely above both shortstacks, he must fold nearly every hand.

ludedude128 folds
Uncalled bet of 1,520 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (800)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 800 | Rake 0
Seat 3: ScientistSET (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (small blind) collected (800)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: race62 didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 54 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155181988: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 200/400 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:05:56 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (105)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (11,320)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (1,520)
Seat 9: race62 (555)
ludedude128 posts the small blind of 200
race62 posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [Qh 8h]
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear raises to 1,520

With Lude's stack safely above both shorty's, he must fold nearly every hand....again.

ludedude128 folds
race62 calls 155, and is all in
PunkinBear shows [Qh 8h]
race62 shows [6h 4h]
Uncalled bet of 965 returned to PunkinBear
*** FLOP *** [7s Ad 4d]
*** TURN *** [7s Ad 4d] [Qc]
*** RIVER *** [7s Ad 4d Qc] [Tc]
PunkinBear shows a pair of Queens
race62 shows a pair of Fours
PunkinBear wins the pot (1,310) with a pair of Queens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1,310 | Rake 0
Board: [7s Ad 4d Qc Tc]
Seat 3: ScientistSET didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (button) showed [Qh 8h] and won (1,310) with a pair of Queens
Seat 8: ludedude128 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: race62 (big blind) showed [6h 4h] and lost with a pair of Fours

*********** # 55 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155183627: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 200/400 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:06:25 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (105)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (12,075)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (1,320)
ScientistSET posts the big blind of 105, and is all in
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [4d Ah]
PunkinBear calls 400

Here, with the BB allin, I certainly have a strong enough hand to raise three handed. However I choose instead to limp...why would I do something so silly?

ludedude128 calls 400

To invite lude into the hand....

*** FLOP *** [2d 8d 7h]
PunkinBear bets 11,675, and is all in

So I can blow him out and force him to risk third.

ludedude128 folds
PunkinBear shows [4d Ah]
ScientistSET shows [9d 7s]
Uncalled bet of 11,675 returned to PunkinBear
*** TURN *** [2d 8d 7h] [6d]
*** RIVER *** [2d 8d 7h 6d] [Th]
PunkinBear wins the side pot (590)
PunkinBear shows Ace Ten high
ScientistSET shows a straight, Ten high
ScientistSET wins the main pot (315) with a straight, Ten high

A4 loses to 97, and I win 190 chips anyway.

*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 905 Main pot 315. Side pot 590. | Rake 0
Board: [2d 8d 7h 6d Th]
Seat 3: ScientistSET (big blind) showed [9d 7s] and won (315) with a straight, Ten high
Seat 6: PunkinBear showed [4d Ah] and won (590) with Ace Ten high
Seat 8: ludedude128 (button) folded on the Flop

*********** # 56 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155186224: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 200/400 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:07:09 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (315)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (12,265)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (920)
ScientistSET posts the small blind of 200
PunkinBear posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [Js 6d]
ludedude128 folds
ScientistSET calls 115, and is all in
ScientistSET shows [3d 4c]
PunkinBear shows [Js 6d]
Uncalled bet of 85 returned to PunkinBear
*** FLOP *** [Qd As 4s]
*** TURN *** [Qd As 4s] [Ks]
*** RIVER *** [Qd As 4s Ks] [5c]
ScientistSET shows a pair of Fours
PunkinBear shows Ace King high
ScientistSET wins the pot (630) with a pair of Fours
PunkinBear: gh
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 630 | Rake 0
Board: [Qd As 4s Ks 5c]
Seat 3: ScientistSET (small blind) showed [3d 4c] and won (630) with a pair of Fours
Seat 6: PunkinBear (big blind) showed [Js 6d] and lost with Ace King high
Seat 8: ludedude128 didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 57 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155187906: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:07:38 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (630)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (11,950)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (920)
PunkinBear posts the small blind of 250
ludedude128 posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [4h 3s]
ScientistSET folds
PunkinBear raises to 1,000

Playing off FEAR one last time here. They are fighting for 2nd. I am getting good odds if he calls.

ludedude128 folds
Uncalled bet of 500 returned to PunkinBear
PunkinBear mucks
PunkinBear wins the pot (1,000)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1,000 | Rake 0
Seat 3: ScientistSET (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (small blind) collected (1,000)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (big blind) folded before the Flop

*********** # 58 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155188734: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:07:53 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (630)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (12,450)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (420)
ludedude128 posts the small blind of 250
ScientistSET posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [2d 6s]
PunkinBear folds
ludedude128 calls 170, and is all in
ludedude128 shows [Kh 9h]
ScientistSET shows [4c Ts]
Uncalled bet of 80 returned to ScientistSET
*** FLOP *** [7s 9c Kd]
*** TURN *** [7s 9c Kd] [8d]
*** RIVER *** [7s 9c Kd 8d] [7c]
ludedude128 shows two pair, Kings and Nines
ScientistSET shows a pair of Sevens
ludedude128 wins the pot (840) with two pair, Kings and Nines
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 840 | Rake 0
Board: [7s 9c Kd 8d 7c]
Seat 3: ScientistSET (big blind) showed [4c Ts] and lost with a pair of Sevens
Seat 6: PunkinBear (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (small blind) showed [Kh 9h] and won (840) with two pair, Kings and Nines

*********** # 59 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155190131: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:08:17 ET

Seat 3: ScientistSET (210)
Seat 6: PunkinBear (12,450)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (840)
ScientistSET posts the small blind of 210, and is all in
PunkinBear posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [Qd Ad]
ludedude128 folds
ScientistSET shows [Ac 7h]
PunkinBear shows [Qd Ad]
Uncalled bet of 290 returned to PunkinBear
*** FLOP *** [6h 8c Jc]
*** TURN *** [6h 8c Jc] [6d]
*** RIVER *** [6h 8c Jc 6d] [Ts]
ScientistSET shows a pair of Sixes
PunkinBear shows a pair of Sixes
PunkinBear wins the pot (420) with a pair of Sixes
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 420 | Rake 0
Board: [6h 8c Jc 6d Ts]
Seat 3: ScientistSET (small blind) showed [Ac 7h] and lost with a pair of Sixes
Seat 6: PunkinBear (big blind) showed [Qd Ad] and won (420) with a pair of Sixes
Seat 8: ludedude128 (button) didn't bet (folded)

*********** # 60 **************
FullTiltPoker Game #1155191379: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7902293) - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 2006/10/27 - 2:08:39 ET

Seat 6: PunkinBear (12,660)
Seat 8: ludedude128 (840)
PunkinBear posts the small blind of 250
ludedude128 posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PunkinBear [Js Td]
PunkinBear raises to 1,000
ludedude128 calls 340, and is all in
PunkinBear shows [Js Td]
ludedude128 shows [Ah Kd]
Uncalled bet of 160 returned to PunkinBear
*** FLOP *** [4h 6c 4s]
*** TURN *** [4h 6c 4s] [2d]
*** RIVER *** [4h 6c 4s 2d] [Tc]
PunkinBear shows two pair, Tens and Fours
ludedude128 shows a pair of Fours
PunkinBear wins the pot (1,680) with two pair, Tens and Fours
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1,680 | Rake 0
Board: [4h 6c 4s 2d Tc]
Seat 6: PunkinBear (small blind) showed [Js Td] and won (1,680) with two pair, Tens and Fours
Seat 8: ludedude128 (big blind) showed [Ah Kd] and got pwned.

The moral of the story, is to apply pressure until you suspect your opponents will play back with nothing. Hope you had fun, and learned something!

Thanks Jenn!

I appreciate it as always.

Frickensweet

Well if a female says it...

Great post Jenn, so when players always type abuse the bubble, this is what they mean. They dont go into detail. You did on every hand that you were involved in. Awesome insight and thanks again for posting.

When I talk about that 75% threshold, what I mean is that KJ is a hand that is better than 75% of all random hands.

Some really great questions Mayor, and nice reply. Your reply will allow me to clarify some points, and add to the discussion.

On hand #46, you mention that I am pot committed to call a reraise from race should he push me allin. That is absolutely true. I would have to call 555 more to win a potential pot of 3060, and would need appx 17% chance to win the hand should I call, making any two cards an easy call there.

The fact that I "have" to call, actually adds to the value of the raise. The reason for this is I take an already +EV play, and add a 5-1 odds call, another +EV play on top of that. It's worse if I am in a position where I have to fold instead.

As for race, he is most likely thinking fold. Most opponents are within their first 50 SNGs, and by extension, their first 15 bubble spots. Think back to when you were new... if you were like me, or most players out there, your mentality was "Don't screw up, and make the money!"

Lude absolutely could have made a move on me by now, however, FEAR, and the failure to think outside the box and reraising with crap, are staples of what you see at this level. That's why I could raise and make this play. The fact that I even had cards here was merely a bonus.

Thanks!

Jen

Very nice post. This was one sick SNG were it worked VERY well, but you have one thing wrong:

KJ is not 75% against a random hand:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

33,561,158,400 games 184.305 secs 182,095,756 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.0683 % 59.95% 01.12% { KJs, KJo }
Hand 2: 38.9317 % 37.81% 01.12% { random }

I think its time for Jennifear videos on XFactor for low limit players. YOU HEARING THIS MINDWISE, SHEETS, AND BAX.

amazing post, hand #55 is brilliant! as a low sng player myself, it's always nice to see articles applying to us micro guys.

Wow! A poker discussion post/thread with some useful and informed insights about poker. I'm impressed. Thanks

jennifear,

i've been playing the low limit sngs pretty frequently recently, and from time to time ive lost a big hand and have become a short stack at the table. So while you outline a strategy for the chip leader, what would you say is the general strategy for those with significantly less chips than everyone else? Now I know this is something that is completely dependent on how many people are left, what the blinds are, and exactly how many chips you have, but I was just wondering what you would say in general.

i usually just pick a spot, and push, and hopefully im in with the best hand. i was playing one today where hte big stacks were doing the exact opposite of what you showed above. They were just sitting back, waiting for the bubble player to get eliminated, which in this case was me, but through stealing the blinds and doubling up, i made it to heads up. just wondering your opinion

great post thank you very much

Duke, the answer is "it depends", which is the answer to a lot of questions in poker.

It depends on your "M", fold equity, and aggressiveness of others.

Use any perceived fold equity. If you have more than 4.5x the bb, you can often get a fold from the guy, which is just enough to survive another round or double bigger should u get something.

Don't call with the worst hand. Be the pusher instead of the caller.

If the other players are VERY NUTTY, sit back and get 3rd that way if there are 4 left.

In general, its time to get the chips in the middle with a prayer.

See Harrington on Holdem V2 for the very best answer to this question out there.

You would get eaten alive at the higher levels. So just sit tight down there.

Good post, can't wait for my lesson. This is just a tease!