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My question to you all is...
Do you think variance is transferrable through different games in unison?
Basically say you're running bad in MTT's, invariably do you think that your good or bad variance would translate to another game (say to switch to cash), or do you believe it to be independant per each game?
I have been thinking a lot lately that each type of event's variance is unique in comparison to other games played at the same time.
Thoughts? -
variance should make you run as good just as much as it makes you run bad, its not like there is a variance switch that makes you run bad for a certain period of time(at least i dont think there is), just analyze your play and if you think you are still playing solid keep grinding and it will come through.
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What they said...Each hand is a unique event with no influence from prior or future events(statistically). However, I think playing on tilt definately can increase your variance which is hella transferrable in unison or w/e....
edit: i used to live in beaverton.... -
I think you are confused.
Variance is a measure of its statistical dispersion, indicating how its possible values are spread around the expected value OVER a given period of time.
Variance does not apply session to session, hand to hand....
What your asking does not even make logical sense.
"Do you think variance is transferable through different games in unison?
Your question sounds more like an attempt to try the new Vocab words you got from your 8th grade teacher this week.
Sounds to me like you're trying to say "Is your MTT variance is = your SnG, HU, FullRing, or 6-max varaince?"
Which is obv a pretty stupid question.... Which I think you can answer on your own.
But since I am already typing here I guess Ill try to add a little constructive criticizm.
General Variance over time: MTTs>SnGs>HU> 6-max >Full Ring
(probably slightly different player to player)
The more you MTT the wider the statistical dispersion for expected value is.
Ultimately, Your Variance is = your swings (+/-). -
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>the truth about variance
by Realbigfish4 on 6/6/2007 18:36 </TD><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>I’ve come to a conclusion about variance. It’s a complete and utter myth when it comes to online poker. Over the last few weeks I did an experiment, I bought into different levels of cash games for different portions of my bank roll and tracked my success. I started at .25/.50 buying in for 50 (aprox. 1/100 of my br) and played 3 hour sessions twice a day for 4 days and I only made 34.45. I then stepped it up .50/1 buying in for 100 (1/50 of my br) and again played 3 hour sessions twice a day for 4 days and I made 256.25. <SPAN> </SPAN>Then I moved to 1/2 mirroring the pervious two levels and made 278.90.
I did this several more times till I was at 25/50 with my whole br at the table, as I would ship my winnings to DaVol2k7 so I would only have 5k when I went up levels. I would rather not say how much I made but variance is a complete and utter myth. I then spent a couple hours trying to figure why my success was greater with the more of my br I put at risk. The conclusion I came to most likely will be argued by the “poker knowledgeable” crowd but they will all be wrong.
Unlike live poker where the house has no control on the cards you get online poker sites can control them. I’ve decided that the reason poker sites “control the play” by hand feeding winning hands is b/c they are owned by amazing business men. The people who profit from these sites understand that someone that buys in for a good portion or all of their bankroll want the site to make money. They realize the “maximum value” player will not only play better poker b/c the cant afford to lose but while the player is trying to get the maximum value they are looking for they will make large pots given the house more rake.
If the sites just let maximum value players lose their whole roll in a session the player will most likely take a break from poker and possibly even go to another site when they get back online. Therefore it is not profitable for poker sites to allow players to lose their whole br. This makes it much more profitable for not only the site but also the player. VARIANCE IS A MYTH!!
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variance is a myth in case you are wondering :) i think you'll find your answers in that thread -
ty theef for being smarter than me but saying what I wanted to
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I wasnt asking about each games variance. I know which games have which variance levels. (BTW your ordering is way off.) I was trying to figure out why people continue to bitch and whine about running bad lets say in tournaments when they could switch games and take a break from the one they're running bad in?
Variance is all about trends. How long or short those trends take is completely random. But what im saying is that different games so seem to adhere to these trends. Like when im running good in tourneys Im not necessarily running well in cash, or vice versa.
Oh and it goes full ring, sng, 6 max, MTT, HU as far as the size of typical variance. -
Q1)"I was trying to figure out why people continue to bitch and whine about running bad lets say in tournaments when they could switch games and take a break from the one they're running bad in?"
Q2) "Like when im running good in tourneys Im not necessarily running well in cash, or vice versa."
A1) Psychology Forum is down the street.
A2) You think your cash game knows your not running well in MTTs? lolz
Idk maybe you're right and they talk to eachother when we are not watching. Kinda like animals in the disney movies. -
wait so cash games have MORE variance than mtts? variance is standard deviation squared...a measure of how far away from the mean each data point is, so how would mtts be closer to the mean on average then cash games when cash game results are pretty consistent while in mtts you can have huge scores and very long dry spells?
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I think you read my order backwards. The only thing with more variance then MTTs is HU sngs and HU cash.
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I remember a cpl years ago, in Vegas, My buddies and I were walking by a roulette wheel and the WHOLE Line was black numbers, something like 20 in a row. I was amazed and said "The next one HAS to be red." My friends all bandwagoned the idea and we each threw a $100 chip on the red square..... and suuure enoughhhhh.............BLACK!!!
So Imma have to say bet black cuz its on a run. LOL
Obv i have no answer your question if this never happened.
This is obv not the RIGHT answer but it is MY answer. :) -
i feel bad for you
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actually, I woulda bet on black because for 20 blacks to come up in a row, perhaps the wheel has some sort of bias in it towards black, all else being equal... ya never know :)
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Hey Epiphany, I think you need to see what variance actually is.
If you play a new hand of poker, it doesn't know if you lost or won the previous hand, or 100 hands. It doesn't matter on what kind of variance you are on that point. The chance of winning that hand are exactly the same if you lost the previous 100 hands or won them. So, variance doesn't actually exist, it is not a 'thing' that influences whether or not you will win the next hand. It is just a way to describe how lucky or unlucky you are being at that particular point in time.
This whole story is only true if bad variance doesn't make you tilt or anything like that.










