Man I wish we looking at no pokerstars and Full Tilt for 2 years instead of a 15 month blackout.

Im betting the house on Bodog stock...ONE TIME!

 

Originally Posted by mcandrews3rd

am i the only one who thinks a harrahs or wpt site would be a virtual gold mine????

F*** THAT. I wouldnt play on their new fkd up sites out of pure principle (Ok im aussie but am still affected by prize pools etc etc)

Anyone got any new up to date info. This has really depressed me. Just organised 3 months of work from Jan thru March, lined up a reputable P5s contributor/player for coaching, and upgraded computer for an early 2011 assault. Its probably my fault. I run good...

there's rly no need to worry about this stuff...jordan young is doing a well

Anyone else think US base sites would have more controversy than AP/UB? When clearly them getitng in on the money is the only reason for all the F***ed up laws. I'd have 100x more faith in the legitimacy of PS and FT

Im surprised none of the top onlone pros or some of the mods havent commented on the situation. Is this all a storm in a tea cup? Has this all been said and done before with no result? Being from Aus im not as up to date with the state of things in the US as most obv. It just seems like not many people are worried bout the possible blackout because they either dont think it will happen or they want it to happen

Whether this proposed bill actually becomes law is still a very open question. Most put the chance at less that 50%.

But as we poker players know all too well, a less than 50% chance is hardly a guarantee it wont happen.

This bill is the product of an extensive amount of negotiation between the various interest involved (including the PPA, the casinos, the sites, the NFL, the banks, and so on) and also even with prior opponents of internet poker. Getting all those interests to agree on something required some very painful compromises.

The worst part of the bill is contained the transition period. As the bill was last reported (and this may change in the final bill) there would be 30 days before the bill took effect, then 30 days for the sites and players to wind down play, then 30 days during wish the sites must refund all money held by US players. If a site fails to comply with this, they can never get a US License. stars and FTP clearly want a US license. So playing on Stars or FTP will have to cease 60 days after the bill passes (if it does) and then you are guaranteed to get your money.

The bill specifically mandates that no licenses may issue until 15 months after passage. So that's 14 months where the only options for play that will be available to US players will be those willing to openly flaunt US law (not getting a license and offering games has a lot of new penalties) and never seek a license. Since sports betting is also a disqualifier for a license, but since the US has hardly been successful shutting down the sports betting sites, poker sites associated with US facing online sports books are expected to operate as normal. There are no criminal penalties on poker players in this bill (one of the few points the PPA was totally successful negotiating).

After that 15 month period, US licensed site WILL appear. It is a lot of detail to fully explain, but it is primarily because STATES AND TRIBES (desperate for revenue) will issue those licenses. There limits to who can license and who can be licensed for the first 2 years. All the larger US gaming interests are included in this initial licensing plan. So expect Caeser'sWSOP.com, BellagioPR.com, Wynn'sPoker.com, FoxwoodsOnline.com and so many more. Not too bad for us players. Taxes are 20% of rake, so (given reduced operating costs from open legality, especially in terms of money deposits and withdrawals) players rake according to industry experts should not be increased. And all that competition should help keep player costs low. Plus the ability to openly advertise that you are licensed by the US and have easy deposits should produce a lot of new players. After those 2 additional years the market opens up completely and pretty much anyone, including FTP and Stars, can get a license. That's open competition and that is what we have always wanted. But we have to wait 3 years for it.

The bill also provides for states to stay out of this federal system and prohibit the residents of that state from playing. Licensed sites must honor the state choice. Because the states get 14% of the 20% tax, this should get most states to be in. But some states will be battles and some states will opt out. Be prepared if you live in a state with a lot of anti-gambling voters.

The Bill also bars US licensed site from having players from other countries for 3 years. It can then be changed as everyone in the industry hopes and believes it will. This idiot provision from a player's point of view is more die to international politics than anything associated with the game. This could change earlier as a result of treaty, but that is an outside hope.

The bill makes NO changes to a player's individual income tax. The bill does mandate that your play be recorded. There is no new with-holding or anything else except that the IRS (and your state tax folks) will have a printout of what you played and how much, if any, you won. For some folks (those neither a pro or who don't itemize, this could have some bad consequences) and in some states (that have a law against deducting losses against winnings) this will initially be a problem. It would make sense, however, that the IRS and the affected states would take these numbers and apply them in a fair manner, otherwise they would kill the beast they just sought to approve and tax (this happened in Ohio just last year - they approved casinos and changed the tax law). We will have to make sure of that separately from this bill, however.

That's about the sum of it, at least from a player's point of view. There seems to also be a lot of wrangling over loopholes that might allow the offshore sites to find someway to get in after only that first 15 months (mergers, sales, some other complex stuff).

This is not a great bill. This is not the kind of bill the PPA fought for. I might tell the whole story in another post someday, but for now what you need to know is that this bill comes with a very high short term price: 14 months of no play on any site that ultimately wants to be US legal. But the long term situation after that, for sure after 2 more years, is almost all we could ask for. And it becomes nearly all of what we want when and if we get back to international player pools.

The price is steep, maybe too steep for some, but the prize is sweet if you can wait it out. I fully know that that is little consolation for what a disruption like this will cause to a good number of pro and semi-pro players. I can only say we fought as hard as we could for something better and this is the best we could get, "take it or leave it" is what we have been told by the politicians. Because the PPA thinks that it has to consider the long run most important, it has supported this bill. So have Stars and FTP. This is not a happy choice, it is a very difficult choice, but we hope it is the most +EV choice.

That's long enough for now. I will try and get back to answer questions as I can.

Good luck to all,

Skallagrim
(PPA Board Member)

 

Originally Posted by Weeeen

Hey Skallagrim,

What is the reasoning behind the 15 month blackout period?

punishment. no im not joking. after reading for the past 5 hours all over the internet punishment is the only real reason.

id get behind a 6 month blackout to get everything set up but 15 months is retarded.

 

Originally Posted by Cmoney3

punishment. no im not joking. after reading for the past 5 hours all over the internet punishment is the only real reason.

id get behind a 6 month blackout to get everything set up but 15 months is retarded.

He is basically right, but I am limited in telling just who insisted on this punishment at this time. I won't be silent forever, but I don't want to say anything before the hand is over and the dealing has stopped.

Of course it would be possible to have a shorter time. We fought for NO MORE than 30/60 days. Instead we got 30 days before play has to stop. Sorry.

Skallagrim

 

Originally Posted by supra1988t

Ugh, this is fucked. No international play is probably the biggest issue, not to mention the tax burden that will be put on the sites will trickle down to us players.

Lack of International play, at least for the first 3 years, is a big issue, I agree. But it also a complex issue. International trade agreements and jurisdiction and all that. All hope that will be settled eventually, and the bill allows for it to happen. But again it forces us to wait far longer than may actually be necessary.

Getting our opponents to agree to stuff was awfully difficult. Without that agreement this bill does not get passed.

No one is claiming this is a negotiating victory. This is a tough compromise to get something done. If we don't get something done now, it is going to be very difficult to get anything done over the next 2 - 4 years. There are a lot of new Congress folk coming to DC; it is going to take a while to get something new going, if we can get something going in this Congress at all.

Skallagrim

 

Originally Posted by Skallagrim

He is basically right, but I am limited in telling just who insisted on this punishment at this time. I won't be silent forever, but I don't want to say anything before the hand is over and the dealing has stopped.

Of course it would be possible to have a shorter time. We fought for NO MORE than 30/60 days. Instead we got 30 days before play has to stop. Sorry.

Skallagrim

So why are we supporting this bill?

 

Originally Posted by Goldenad

Its a long term solution to legalizing poker and creating a huge US market. The status quo as it stands kinda sucks and in the future it may get more and more difficult to get money on/off sites if the DOJ continues to crack down on payment processors.

Of course the issue with this bill (although it might not matter now since all signs point to it failing) is the 15 month blackout which affects the tens of thousands of
Americans who make a living/secondary income playing online poker

Why are we allowing someone to PUNISH us for making a living? I understand in the long-term this is good for us... but literally hitting us across the knuckles solves nothing.

 

Originally Posted by Weeeen

Why are we allowing someone to PUNISH us for making a living? I understand in the long-term this is good for us... but literally hitting us across the knuckles solves nothing.

I dont really see it as punishing per se. Ok scratch that, obviously its punishing players who do this for a living, but i dont think they were saying 'how do we fuck over the average poker player.'

If stars/ftp were allowed to continue serving US customers for the next 15 months then they would be at a huge advantage when US casinos could finally open up sites in 15 months. this 15 month period is supposedly to allow all the regulations, licensing etc to be put in place. for casual players who want to start playing online poker, theyd probably just go with stars/ftp if it were suddenly legalized and made extremely easy to deposit. once harrahs opens up their site a year away from now would there be a huge surge of players who are already on stars/ftp to suddenly join harrahs? that seems unlikely although we'd never know. this is why the 15 months blackout period is in the bill, so that US casinos have a fair chance at market share down the line. harry reid's campaign just had a ton of money thrown at him by the casinos in vegas to make sure he won. hes going to be looking out for them first and foremost, thus the blackout

 

Originally Posted by The Lab Rat

Anyone have an approximate % chance of this bill going through?

its not looking good atm

So........online poker might be legal in 15 months or so, but states might opt out, countries might not get licenses. Are we in for a world war for online poker rights?

anyone care?

 

Originally Posted by Goldenad

I disagree with this wholeheartedly. the ppa has been trying pretty hard to get rid of the blackout because its obviously terrible for pros. i dont know why you think theyre supporting business interests or what proof you have of that.

in terms of foreign players, the bill would allow foreign players to join in 3 years IF the secretary of commerce or some other bigwig (cant remember who exactly) says its ok. obviously it would be great if we could have a bunch of euros etc playing with us but you should recognize that if poker is legalized through this bill and it becomes really easy to deposit/withdraw (like the old days) then there will be a tonnnnnn of new american players who have no idea wtf theyre doing a la live pros and just regular joes who never really understood or cared how to get money online but now see commercials for harrahs.com and think 'omg you know what i want to play some online poker tonight'

to say that no online poker player should or would support this bill is a pretty big blanket statement. in the short term its terrible for all of us p5ers who really enjoy playing and rely on it for all/some of our income. 3 years down the line having poker legalized would be really huge for us. having said that, there are some people (myself included) who are more concerned with how theyre going to make money over the next 15 months than way down the line. i'm in grad school and 15 months from now i will have much less time to play, especially if ive gotten a real job by then, so clearly its in my best interest that this bill fails and i can continue to grind. it all comes down to needs

I agree something does need to be done at some point, but not at this expense. They do paint the possibility of a rosy future for online poker, but it is entirely too uncertain to trade for missing years of action.