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Is there such thing as being a winning player (mtts) and losing 80 plus buyins and chalking it up to variance

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  1. cbo smooth cbo smooth is offline

    Tallahassee, FL
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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 1:36am)

    a few months ago couldnt lose, now cant win,, and i mean, cant win, been playing 5 years and feel im lightyears better than most at my stakes but cant seem to win my flips late or 60/40's, is 80ish buyin downswing normal?
  2. fly44 fly44 is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 1:43am) in reply to cbo smooth

    Yes.
    521 1
  3. zander zander is offline anomaly in his crotch

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 1:45am) in reply to cbo smooth

    For MTTS 80 buyins seems pretty normal...

    On the other hand, I just had my first 70-buyin downswing in 9-mans ($30 super turbos) which is pretty absurd... getting 3 outed 50 times in 60 allins is pretty hard given that it's almost mathematically impossible to have 50 of 60 allins consecutively come up where you are in position to fade 3 outs, let alone to actually fail to do so that many times in a row.

    Take a break, look at your hand histories, and then keep on truckin.
  4. RoyalCrusher RoyalCrusher is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 1:48am) in reply to cbo smooth

    fo sho
     1
  5. cbo smooth cbo smooth is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 1:49am) in reply to zander

     
    Originally Posted by zander View Post

    For MTTS 80 buyins seems pretty normal...

    On the other hand, I just had my first 70-buyin downswing in 9-mans ($30 super turbos) which is pretty absurd... getting 3 outed 50 times in 60 allins is pretty hard given that it's almost mathematically impossible to have 50 of 60 allins consecutively come up where you are in position to fade 3 outs, let alone to actually fail to do so that many times in a row.

    Take a break, look

    at your hand histories, and then keep on truckin.

    so you think a winning player can lose 80is buyins ,,, ok rephrase,, lets say god came to earth and played ur hands (not seeing hole cards obv) and made the right moves, do you think variance itself can make you lose 80 buyins?
    Thread Starter
  6. zander zander is offline anomaly in his crotch

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 1:53am) in reply to cbo smooth

     
    Originally Posted by cbo smooth View Post

    so you think a winning player can lose 80is buyins ,,, ok rephrase,, lets say god came to earth and played ur hands (not seeing hole cards obv) and made the right moves, do you think variance itself can make you lose 80 buyins?

    In MTTs, absolutely. I'd guess that at least 90% of the top 100 have had an 80-buyin downswing at some point, and that might be lowballing by approximately 9 percent...

    For STTs if I wasn't a winner over the first 20,000, I'd probably be worried about the 70, but i'm not losing any sleep.
  7. ripomatic ripomatic is online now

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 2:08am) in reply to zander

     
    Originally Posted by zander View Post

    For MTTS 80 buyins seems pretty normal...

    On the other hand, I just had my first 70-buyin downswing in 9-mans ($30 super turbos) which is pretty absurd... getting 3 outed 50 times in 60 allins is pretty hard given that it's almost mathematically impossible to have 50 of 60 allins consecutively come up where you are in position to fade 3 outs, let alone to actually fail to do so that many times in a row.

    Take a break, look at your hand histories, and then keep on truckin.

    3 Outerriggaments for sure.....they run waaay better than they should....
  8. Poker Orifice Poker Orifice is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 4:59am) in reply to cbo smooth

    Online I've mostly been a micro buyin private donkament grinder and I'll bitch to my cat when I get 2 & 3-outer donked in 3buyins consecutively, worst being 14 bubble or near bubble finishes on a Sunday, sitting in good shape and going out on 80/20's in most of them (that had me just reeling!!!!! .... lol). I have a problem with not winning ha ha.
    Considering making the move up a bit and putting in some volume, have been waiting for a window of oppurtunity (time-wise) and am about to get going on it. Not looking forward to mass downswings in buyins... sigh... especially seeing as I'll only be rolled for the $26donkaments. 80+buyins consecutively?..... whoa... I hope I hit a good run or two prior, so I don't end up playing in fast-moving traffic.
    I guess I'm going to have to adopt a new attitude (working on it).
  9. SCTrojans SCTrojans is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 5:08am) in reply to cbo smooth

    80 buyins is absolutely nothing
     13
  10. Duffy08 Duffy08 is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 5:14am) in reply to cbo smooth

    i've had a few but def. don't just chalk it up to variance.

    think about what you could possibly change to help ur game through a redic run
     1
  11. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 8:52am) in reply to cbo smooth

    Yes, this is a typical swing.
  12. Neek Neek is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 9:03am) in reply to Jennifear

    Absolutely normal. At least in my experience. It can be due strictly to variance. I also know that at least in my case, a 30-40 buyin downswing can turn into a 50-60 buyin downswing pretty easily due to not playing my best because it can affect how I play.
     
  13. jesterwords jesterwords is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 9:14am) in reply to Jennifear

     
    Originally Posted by Jennifear View Post

    Yes, this is a typical swing.

    agreed
  14. whitespur whitespur is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 10:18am) in reply to cbo smooth

  15. bassmaster bassmaster is offline SCAMMER - DO NOT TRADE

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    Nov 6th, 2009 (11/6/2009 11:09am) in reply to cbo smooth

    i think when you are running bad over a long time you start to play different than your optimal game. you are scared of those 2 and 3 outers and someone having the nuts vs you so your game is affected and it makes it a lot tougher to win. try taking a few days off looking at some hhs and watching some better players play. then come back with a fresh mind and playing your best and if you are still losing then you might not be that good.
  16. apestyles apestyles is offline Moderator

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    Nov 7th, 2009 (11/7/2009 11:54am) in reply to cbo smooth

    ive gone 54 mtts without cashing. Pretty sure 80 buy in downswing is normal and expected to happen occasionally.
     282 12 

    apestyles is an instructor at PocketFives Training . To get more of his advice and to watch his training videos, click here.

  17. Brain Damage Brain Damage is offline

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    Nov 7th, 2009 (11/7/2009 12:06pm) in reply to cbo smooth

    I love how 80 games is completely standard. What a stupid fking game I'm addicted to.
     
  18. Burying_Luck Burying_Luck is offline

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    Nov 7th, 2009 (11/7/2009 12:11pm) in reply to cbo smooth

     
    Originally Posted by cbo smooth View Post

    so you think a winning player can lose 80is buyins ,,, ok rephrase,, lets say god came to earth and played ur hands (not seeing hole cards obv) and made the right moves, do you think variance itself can make you lose 80 buyins?

    If 80 buy-ins is your biggest downswing in 5 years you're not running like god, you are god.
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