Check out our brand new Local Poker Communities! Get updates and interact with poker players in your area.
Visit the United States Poker Community | Visit the California Poker Community | Read more about the Launch of P5s Local

tough decision

Reply to Thread
  1. MattMaster MattMaster is offline

    Posts: 166
    Joined: Nov 06

    Aug 22nd, 2007 (8/22/2007 11:05pm)

    Wanted some advice on how P5ers would play this hand. 2nd hour of $3r with a below average stack couple levels after the rebuy hour but with plenty of room to play. Really went into the tank on this one. Looks like this guy didn't want a call but should I call off this many chips on what could very well be a coinflip?? I put the chances of an overpair very low but still not sure if this call was +EV. Thanks everyone for your input look forward to replies.

    Stage #865157114 Tourney ID 1874324 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit $150 - 2007-08-21 14:24:51 (ET)
    Table: 10 (Real Money) Seat #8 is the dealer
    Seat 1 - RNBEAN ($7920 in chips)
    Seat 2 - ABELBROTHERS ($7000 in chips)
    Seat 3 - XDUMB ($905 in chips)
    Seat 4 - PJT55 ($19580 in chips)
    Seat 5 - ICE560920 ($6860 in chips)
    Seat 6 - F_U_T_K ($19230 in chips)
    Seat 7 - MATTMASTER ($6685 in chips)
    Seat 8 - CRAZYLAZY ($10330 in chips)
    Seat 9 - PUPPERDOO ($12500 in chips)
    PUPPERDOO - Posts small blind $75
    RNBEAN - Posts big blind $150
    *** POCKET CARDS ***
    Dealt to MATTMASTER [Js Jd]
    ABELBROTHERS - Calls $150
    XDUMB - Folds
    PJT55 - Folds
    ICE560920 - Calls $150
    F_U_T_K - Folds
    MATTMASTER - Raises $600 to $600
    CRAZYLAZY - Folds
    PUPPERDOO - All-In(Raise) $12425 to $12500
    RNBEAN - Folds
    ABELBROTHERS - Folds
    ICE560920 - Folds
    MATTMASTER - ?????
  2. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is offline

    Greenville, MS
    United States

    Posts: 1,999
    Joined: May 07

    Aug 23rd, 2007 (8/23/2007 12:53am) in reply to MattMaster

    Why is this a tough decision?
    You don't say what you've seen this player do recently or since he came to your table. If you weren't paying attention, then why should we try an help you?

    (a) You are in a coin flip;
    (b) Your [Js Jd]is way behind;
    (c) You are playing for your tournament life.

    FOLD. Unless you want to GAMBOOL.
  3. MattMaster MattMaster is offline

    Posts: 166
    Joined: Nov 06

    Aug 23rd, 2007 (8/23/2007 10:27am) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    sorry, memory a little fuzzy this tourney was a couple days ago, but I think that i had just moved to a new table and had no read on the player. can you really be sure though that I am in a coinflip?? and if you were sure, you can't really say that my JJ is behind. obviously 2 overcards are very likely, but can u include even 88+ in his range? The villain was in the small blind, so could this just be his way of saying- I'm out of position and don't want to take a flop so I'll just push and pray? Thanks for your response though this hand has really been bugging me
    Thread Starter
  4. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is offline

    Greenville, MS
    United States

    Posts: 1,999
    Joined: May 07

    Aug 23rd, 2007 (8/23/2007 11:10am) in reply to MattMaster

    Okay, at least you give us something to go with. Your thought process. If you put the opponents range any [A,x] or a pair of [77]-[AA] then you could be in 65:45

    Hold'em Simulation
    <span>388,693,008 trials (Exhaustive)</span>
    <table border="1" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><th>Hand</th><th>Pot equity</th><th>Wins</th><th>Ties</th></tr><tr><td>JsJd</td><td>65.30%</td><td>252,147,068</td><td>3,362,956</td></tr><tr><td>A*,77-AA</td><td>34.70%</td><td>133,182,984</td><td>3,362,956</td></tr></tbody></table>
    Since he's accumulated a significant number of chips, we need to think he's been doing something right. I think his range is tighter, but I don't know by how much. [J,J] is a pretty good hand, but you are reacting to his bet. The only part I don't like about this situation is CALLING all-in. You must showdown the best hand.
  5. thebawler thebawler is offline

    Posts: 329
    Joined: Jan 07

    Aug 23rd, 2007 (8/23/2007 12:10pm) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    How can you possible put this guy on Ax?????????? a more realistic range is like AQs+ 99+

    Hand 0: 50.184% 49.22% 00.96% 53095090 1040504.00 { JhJs }
    Hand 1: 49.816% 48.85% 00.96% 52699054 1040504.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

    I dont like a call here unless you know that this guy is just trying to donk off some chips......if you fold youll still have around 40BB left you can wait for a better spot IMO.
  6. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is offline

    Greenville, MS
    United States

    Posts: 1,999
    Joined: May 07

    Aug 23rd, 2007 (8/23/2007 2:08pm) in reply to thebawler

    The bettor has not been observed. That means his range is still pretty large. The bettor could be raising to bully the table. It's not probable, but it's a consideration.
    The analysis still works to show it should be a fold.

    Odds of winning with [J,J] is 3:2 on an unknown player is a best case senario. Even at 50:49, it's still a gamble.
  7. MattMaster MattMaster is offline

    Posts: 166
    Joined: Nov 06

    Aug 23rd, 2007 (8/23/2007 6:44pm) in reply to thebawler

    I agree that Ax is not anywhere near being in his range, and bawler I think the range you've described is much more accurate. Plus I agreee that a 6k stack (which I would have after a fold) is plenty to work w/ at 75/150. Wouldn't exactly say that I had a read on him but something in my gut was telling me call. Will post the rest of the hand soon if you are all interested.
    Thread Starter
Reply to Thread

Similar Threads