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tough spot (3/6 NL)

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  1. sixhigh sixhigh is offline

    Middletown, CT
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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 1:37am)

    pokerstars Game #11659590363: Hold'em No Limit ($3/$6) - 2007/08/24 - 01:22:34 (ET)
    Table 'Viipuri' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
    Seat 1: crapface82 ($609 in chips)
    Seat 2: gl79 ($585 in chips)
    Seat 3: sixhigh6 ($1603 in chips)
    Seat 4: DooMeRFD ($615 in chips)
    Seat 5: Any2Cards ($82.65 in chips)
    Seat 6: thegoodson ($442.10 in chips)
    Seat 7: INTREPID FOX ($486 in chips)
    Seat 8: skydancing8 ($652.15 in chips)
    Seat 9: blocktrader9 ($369.95 in chips)
    sixhigh6: posts small blind $3
    DooMeRFD: posts big blind $6
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to sixhigh6 [2s As]
    Any2Cards: calls $6
    thegoodson: folds
    INTREPID FOX: folds
    skydancing8: calls $6
    blocktrader9: folds
    crapface82: folds
    gl79: folds
    sixhigh6: calls $3
    DooMeRFD: checks
    *** FLOP *** [4s 5d 3d]
    sixhigh6: bets $18
    DooMeRFD: raises $30 to $48
    Any2Cards: folds
    skydancing8: folds
    sixhigh6: raises $108 to $156
    DooMeRFD: raises $168 to $324
    Sixhigh6 ???

    stats are 10/8/4 (through a couple hundred hands). He seems to know what he's doing.

    Can I possibly be ahead?
     
  2. kdogpenny1 kdogpenny1 is offline

    Aliso Viejo, CA
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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 1:41am) in reply to sixhigh

    He sounds super tight, so he has a huge pair or a set, either way you have the best hand against him. 10/8/4 isnt calling raises with 76, so you have to be ahead, the only other hand maybe is 66 but thats less likely
  3. Damage1 Damage1 is offline

    Pittsburgh, PA
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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 1:42am) in reply to kdogpenny1

    he was bb in a checked pot, could have any 2. 62 and 76 are both strong possibilities, as well as a set. i dont think a 10/8/4 would go crazy w/ 2 pair here, but i could be wrong.
  4. ratsauce89 ratsauce89 is offline

    San Lucas
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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 1:42am) in reply to kdogpenny1

    can you read hand histories?
    641 
  5. nowapowa nowapowa is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 1:46am) in reply to sixhigh

    <object codebase="http://fpdownload.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=7,0,0,0" id="trainingApp3" align="middle" height="420" width="560"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="sameDomain"><param name="movie" value="http://www.pokerxfactor.com/swf/trainingApp3.swf?xmlHandID=79034&fn=85_2007082 4_014616&hn=0&mh=0&sc=1"><param name="quality" value="high"><param name="bgcolor" value="#cccccc"><embed src="http://www.pokerxfactor.com/swf/trainingApp3.swf?xmlHandID=79034&fn=85_2007082 4_014616&hn=0&mh=0&sc=1" quality="high" bgcolor="#cccccc" name="trainingApp3" allowscriptaccess="sameDomain" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" align="middle" height="420" width="560"></object>
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  6. Juanda 87 Juanda 87 is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 1:47am) in reply to ratsauce89

    Tough decision, it's very likely he plays a set like this, b/c there is obviously straight and flush draw possibilties for him to worry about. He could have 76 it's in his range, So is a lot of suited diamond hands, but it's not likely he has a flush draw here. It seems rare a TAG player would push a flush on you so hard here.

    You can't beat 76, but you're ahead of any set, and with the texture of the board, i'd say that's what he has. I mean, if you both flopped a straight, sometimes you gotta pay it off, you're ahead enough times to do so here.
  7. Daut44 Daut44 is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 1:52am) in reply to nowapowa

    come on now, easiest fold ever
    if he has 67/62 youre drawing dead.
    if he has a set you are a slight favorite
    he doesnt have anything else cause hes a nit
    what is so tough about this decision?
     
  8. Juanda 87 Juanda 87 is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 1:54am) in reply to Daut44

    Daut - I just think he has a set far more often then any other hand, you honestly telling me if he shows you a set, you're folding?

    "if he has 67/62 youre drawing dead"

    Huh, look at the HH, you're not drawing dead vs anything he has here, OP has a runner runner straight flush draw, and if he has 62, it could come a 6 on the turn to split. But, you're equity isn't huge here that's for sure.
  9. ShooterJ ShooterJ is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 1:56am) in reply to Juanda 87

    he's not folding to a shown set. He's folding because of his equity against villains entire range
  10. Daut44 Daut44 is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 1:56am) in reply to Juanda 87

    lol at him playing a set like this.
    this is 67/62 like 80% and a set maybe 20%
    i think your equity against his hand range is <20%
     
  11. kokonotz kokonotz is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 1:57am) in reply to sixhigh

    CR vids and many lost $$s tell me not to go broke in an unraised pot without the nuts, especially vs. someone with those kind of stats.
  12. Juanda 87 Juanda 87 is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 1:57am) in reply to Daut44

    Daut, I understand you're a mathematician, and I guess his numbers are pretty TAG, and you're right the equity is poor vs his range (looks at pokerstove %'s), I guess this is a fold, but hardly "easy" for me.
  13. DoubleUp28 DoubleUp28 is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 2:28am) in reply to kokonotz

    hell of a spot here. at first glance i said push and go broke. but like you said he seems very tight and wouldnt make this play with anything but 6,7-6,2 or possibly a set. You only have $150 invested into the pot so far and as hard as it is id say to get away with his table prowess.
  14. computerb computerb is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 4:11am) in reply to DoubleUp28

    The couple of books I read and my own experience says that you shouldn't go broke with the idiot end of that straight in an unraised pot. If you're gonna use your tracking software, why don't you trust it?
  15. stevek173 stevek173 is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 4:22am) in reply to sixhigh

    Result?
  16. mr. menlo mr. menlo is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 4:29am) in reply to sixhigh

    all out
  17. Schlik20 Schlik20 is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 4:36am) in reply to mr. menlo

    fold, you dont have enough behind
  18. BP8499 BP8499 is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 4:45am) in reply to Schlik20

    OMG why is every saying limping UTG and calling raises and butchering this hand it was an unraised pot the nit saw the flop from the BB and he has the nuts as usual in an unraised pot...no set he has 67...obv
  19. ricestud ricestud is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 4:47am) in reply to BP8499

    not believing anyone EVAR is the only way to play full handed NL tables.
     
  20. Juanda 87 Juanda 87 is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 4:47am) in reply to Schlik20

    Ya, even being really optimistic about his range, I can't even get it to be better than 30% EV vs his range, Daut and Menlo are correct, as usual.

    This thread was a good educational post, I was pretty sure it was a call, but taking a few key things into perspective like his %'s and his range, i'm happy to say I understand it's a fold now :)
  21. sixhigh sixhigh is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 9:28am) in reply to Juanda 87

    I folded - he didn't show.
     
    Thread Starter
  22. sixhigh sixhigh is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 9:33am) in reply to computerb

    Because you can get in a lot of trouble blindly following stats that are comprised of playing 250 hands together.
     
    Thread Starter
  23. Largadon Largadon is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 10:14am) in reply to sixhigh

    Just wondering, is a big draw (A6dd) entirely out of his range?
  24. alay9 alay9 is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 12:04pm) in reply to Largadon

    This seems like a much more clear cut situation than most people seem to be making it. Daut was pretty spot on with his analysis, considering the villain's stats. This is also a 9-handed ring game and a limped pot and the villain is in the BB! If Sixhigh had any confidence in being able to outplay this table in the long run, this is a definite fold, which is what he did. He bet out, which may or may not have shown strength and the Villain might've raised to isolate the pot as he was first to act after Sixhigh, but after Sixhigh then reraised when it came back to him, it was extremely clear to the Villain that Sixhigh had a very strong hand (maybe even the nuts as Sixhigh was in the SB). If Villain had a set (which I think is 20% at best here) he would've either flat called the reraise and reevaluated on the turn or folded (more likely).
  25. VINNY VT VINNY VT is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 12:18pm) in reply to sixhigh

    plz fold...76
  26. pageh656 pageh656 is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 12:29pm) in reply to alay9

    "If Sixhigh had any confidence in being able to outplay this table in the long run, this is a definite fold, which is what he did. "

    and thats where you lost all credibility
     
  27. pariah pariah is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 12:30pm) in reply to sixhigh

    Most of you are mis-reading his stats. He's in the BB, so his VPIP is almost irrelevant. His PFR% simply means he's probably not raising 22-88 here. Most of you overlooked his AF though, which at full ring is pretty high. So saying he NEVER does this with Ad6d may not be accurate. I still think it's a clear fold based on the action (not his stats) but it's pretty inaccurate to characterize this guy as a nit.
  28. stayhighlowe stayhighlowe is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 12:31pm) in reply to VINNY VT

    For me in this spot i would have to pay off he only hase one full buy-in and u can still beat too many hands here esp like a 2x draw, or set
  29. alay9 alay9 is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 2:15pm) in reply to pariah

    Please Page tell me why my credibility is shot because of that comment. He can clearly get his chips in in a better spot and he seems to be aware of this. He is clearly doing well at that table and has no need to go broke when a huge portion of the time he is behind and the times that he's not, his opponent is still drawing at 6-12 outs (including split pots) with 2 cards to come.
  30. Sluggle Sluggle is offline

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    Aug 24th, 2007 (8/24/2007 2:39pm) in reply to sixhigh

    I'm wondering that if he flopped 6-7 there, or even 2-6, does he really make that raise to the sb leading out for 2/3 of the pot, since the majority of the time the sb folds here? If he had 6-7 isn't it more likely he will smooth call and see what the other 2 limpers, including a first position limper will do?

    I guess you'd have to think of the few hands you have played with him-- is he the type to slowplay or is will he protect and bet the hands he hit hard, how does he play his hands in multi-way pots, is he tricky, etc... probably not enough information to figure that, but I would say he has 4-6d here. Just the way he played it super aggressive in that it seems he wants to get a fold out of you, but the draw is big enough for him to go all the way. Of course, it's still very likely he has 2-6 moreso than 6-7 and just wants to get his hand in on the flop without any scare cards coming.

    I'd say this is a fold the majority of the time, but you don't instafold it without thinking.
     
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