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tough spot early in 40k

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  1. lee118 lee118 is offline

    Charleston, SC
    United States

    Posts: 227
    Joined: Feb 07

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 1:26am)

    Well, I have no reads on this guy. I recognize his name but i am not certain if he is a solid reg or not. I am wondering what everyones thoughts are on this hand.

    Full Tilt Poker Game #24283468256: $40,000 Guarantee (187683638), Table 59 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:18:49 ET - 2010/09/28
    Seat 1: HabibMarwan1 (3,903)
    Seat 3: D1rtyR1v3r (4,785)
    Seat 4: discomonkey (3,430)
    Seat 5: lee118 (7,079)
    Seat 6: Mark Norm (8,540)
    Seat 7: gspott1975 (2,489)
    Seat 8: Chauvinator (3,893)
    Seat 9: Slick Nittany (3,385)
    discomonkey posts the small blind of 40
    lee118 posts the big blind of 80
    The button is in seat #3
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to lee118 [Qs Kh]
    Mark Norm folds
    gspott1975 folds
    Chauvinator folds
    Slick Nittany raises to 160
    HabibMarwan1 folds
    D1rtyR1v3r folds
    discomonkey has 15 seconds left to act
    discomonkey folds
    lee118 calls 80
    *** FLOP *** [5d Qh Qc]
    lee118 checks
    Slick Nittany checks
    *** TURN *** [5d Qh Qc] [9h]
    lee118 bets 240
    Slick Nittany has 15 seconds left to act
    Slick Nittany calls 240
    *** RIVER *** [5d Qh Qc 9h] [As]
    lee118 bets 480
    FourClover01 sits down
    Slick Nittany has 15 seconds left to act
    Slick Nittany raises to 2,985, and is all in
    lee118 has 15 seconds left to act
     
  2. Charlamaigne Charlamaigne is offline

    South Lake Tahoe, CA
    United States

    Posts: 563
    Joined: Jul 08

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 1:39am) in reply to lee118

    Call
  3. bef99hwk bef99hwk is offline

    Manhattan, KS
    United States

    Posts: 7,332
    Joined: Apr 07

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 1:55am) in reply to Charlamaigne

    Fold unless he's a complete idiot.
  4. Spissos Spissos is offline

    Novara
    Italy

    Posts: 163
    Joined: Jul 09

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 9:02am) in reply to bef99hwk

    fold, i don't think he's bluffing enough to make this call profitable and he's never shoving for value a worse hand unless he's crazy
  5. mindtrip954 mindtrip954 is offline

    Madison, WI
    United States

    Posts: 1,688
    Joined: Jan 06

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 10:12am) in reply to Spissos

    initially I thought fold here.. his range is pretty much air or the nuts here... there are a few draws that form on the turn (JT, and hearts) so there are logical hands that he could be bluffing with.. The only hand that we beat that isnt a complete bluff would be AKhh, where he was drawing to the hearts, hit an ace so its a semibluff in a way.. a retarded semibluff but w/e...

    After looking at it more tho its 2505 to call against 4505 in the pot... so 1.72:1 odds. If we think that 4 out of ten times he is bluffing a missed draw, a weaker Q, or shoving an Ak hand cuz hes an idiot and thinks he just got there on you, and all the draws missed if he thought you could be drawing. I dont have exp in the $75, but in the $26 i would say that it is likely that i have him beat more than 4 times in 10..

    The only real nut hands he could have here are 55,99,AQ vs likely hands that we beat JT,QT,QJ,AK,AhXh,xhxh. In a $26 I think Im calling, in a $75 im not sure...

    a tough spot for sure imo...

    as played my initial thought was 55, but not raising the turn seems really bad if he has 55 because the board pairs the 9 or the whole card he just got fucked, as well as he should be looking to get vlaue out of drawing hands if he has the FH, and if he has AQ with all of the draws out there he should be raising the turn for value as well as protecting his hand.
    Edited By: mindtrip954 Sep 29th, 2010 at 10:17 AM
  6. jinx_987 jinx_987 is offline

    New Zealand

    Posts: 66
    Joined: Sep 10

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 11:14am) in reply to mindtrip954

    I'm gonna put my money on he had AA/55 here.. heres why..
    He is in the CO and just min-raisin.. the min-raise sets alarm bells off immediately. Either an idiot or typical a min-raise is i have KK,AA i want u to play with me in this situation since its been folded round to him( maybe min-raise with 55 etc but wtf??), he doesnt wanna 3 bet and take the blinds imo he's enticing a call or re-steal from the blinds. so it Flops QQ5 and instantly theres the lil fear of you holdin a queen so he checks behind, the 9 drops which is blank you bet 3/4 pot size and he flats you,him still a bit nervous you hold the Q , or obvsly trappin you with 55.. the min-raise pre by him is just dodgy and is either 55 or AA..AQ or AK is out imo (sry previous poster) he's not min raisin pre for value with ak aq- he would have 2.5-4x pre imo. And if he has AA, then obvs the A on river is gold for him hence the all in.

    Either way its a Fold, you still have 5.5k+ and to call you would be putting him on a bluff because theres not a lot you beat aside from qj,q10- . maybe ak aq but as i said before i think you can rule that out by preflp action. $$ on 55,AA
    Edited By: jinx_987 Sep 29th, 2010 at 11:18 AM
    Reason: punctuation.
  7. CJDeman CJDeman is offline

    Sydney
    Australia

    Posts: 820
    Joined: Jul 07

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 1:30pm) in reply to jinx_987

    The way you have played the hands looks a lot like you have a Q imo. In that case, he is not expecting a fold from you on the river so he prolly has you beat. AQ, AA,55,99 all seem possible.
     
  8. The Lab Rat The Lab Rat is offline

    Costa Rica

    Posts: 2,070
    Joined: Apr 08

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 4:07pm) in reply to CJDeman

     
    Originally Posted by CJDeman View Post

    The way you have played the hands looks a lot like you have a Q imo. In that case, he is not expecting a fold from you on the river so he prolly has you beat. AQ, AA,55,99 all seem possible.

    sounds about right
    309 
  9. lawyergunsmoney lawyergunsmoney is offline

    Cincinnati, OH
    United States

    Posts: 58
    Joined: May 09

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 4:57pm) in reply to bef99hwk

     
    Originally Posted by bef99hwk View Post

    Fold unless he's a complete idiot.

    I can see villan playing AK this way. If he made his full house, would he really bet so big on river? Of course, good chance I am the complete idiot referred to above.
  10. The Lab Rat The Lab Rat is offline

    Costa Rica

    Posts: 2,070
    Joined: Apr 08

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 5:18pm) in reply to lawyergunsmoney

    Villian is a reg. He's not bad enough to ever shove ak here. He prolly has a boat putting you on a queen thinking that you'll never fold a queen on the river.
    309 
  11. bef99hwk bef99hwk is offline

    Manhattan, KS
    United States

    Posts: 7,332
    Joined: Apr 07

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 5:19pm) in reply to lawyergunsmoney

     
    Originally Posted by lawyergunsmoney View Post

    I can see villan playing AK this way. If he made his full house, would he really bet so big on river? Of course, good chance I am the complete idiot referred to above.

    No I fold for the exact reason CJDeman said...just got too lazy with my post. But you played this like a queen exactly...there's no hands lee is betting turn AND river with that is for value other than Qx or air...so there's no point in overjamming the river without a hand that beats Qx...ya dig?

    EDIT: unless the guy's an idiot and doesn't think about these things (and therefore shoves), or he knows lee enough to mindfuck with him.
    Edited By: bef99hwk Sep 29th, 2010 at 05:20 PM
  12. jinx_987 jinx_987 is offline

    New Zealand

    Posts: 66
    Joined: Sep 10

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 5:48pm) in reply to bef99hwk

    result plz..
  13. lee118 lee118 is offline

    Charleston, SC
    United States

    Posts: 227
    Joined: Feb 07

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 6:18pm) in reply to jinx_987

    my thoughts were very similar to what nearly everyone said here. I did decide to fold in this spot. His line is obviously superstrong. The main reason why I second guessed myself is if this is a solid aggro reg............ i feel he can do this with a busted draw here. I mean i am pretty certain I was beat here but I guess there is always that slight doubt
     
    Thread Starter
  14. rainmanrcp rainmanrcp is offline

    Wilmington, NC
    United States

    Posts: 1,164
    Joined: Aug 09

    Sep 29th, 2010 (9/29/2010 10:19pm) in reply to lee118

    Pretty tough spot considering there are very few hands in his range here that beat you imo. 99 and AA are never checking back this flop so I think its safe to dismiss these, 55/AQ are very possible holdings though however. I think since its unlikely he has AQ very often given our hand, I may call here (I don't like foldinglol) because I think it's a spazz out with a marginal hand more often than 5's full.

    Also, is it possible he's fake polarizing his range here with AK expecting you to have a rivered A with <AJ that just took a stab on the turn and may make a hero call on the river?
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