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Tough spot (I think) in tilt 32k

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  1. stevie444 stevie444 is offline

    Posts: 1,531
    Joined: Jan 07

    Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 4:03pm)

    Early in the tilt 150fo, no reads on villian prior to this hand.

    Full Tilt Poker Game #3893209222: $32,000 Guarantee (28456386), Table 7 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:17:47 ET - 2007/10/18

    Seat 1: trublupoker (2,910)

    Seat 2: dl53 (3,010)

    Seat 3: stevie444 (3,060)

    Seat 4: TheKark (895)

    Seat 5: motnahp (6,115)

    Seat 6: allinstevie (2,825)

    Seat 7: The Linz (2,985)

    Seat 8: UnluckyRat (2,465)

    Seat 9: ImOnfkntilt (2,735)

    The Linz posts the small blind of 15

    UnluckyRat posts the big blind of 30

    The button is in seat #6

    *** HOLE CARDS ***

    Dealt to stevie444 [As Kc]

    ImOnfkntilt folds

    trublupoker calls 30

    dl53 folds

    stevie444 raises to 120

    TheKark folds

    motnahp folds

    allinstevie folds

    The Linz folds

    UnluckyRat has 15 seconds left to act

    UnluckyRat calls 90

    trublupoker calls 90

    *** FLOP *** [Ac 7h 8s]

    UnluckyRat checks

    trublupoker checks

    stevie444 bets 240

    UnluckyRat calls 240

    trublupoker folds

    *** TURN *** [Ac 7h 8s] [Th]

    UnluckyRat bets 855

    stevie444 ???

    I really didnt know what to do here when he potted the turn. I often see people make this bet to commit themselves to the pot with a decent draw like Ax of hearts or a 9T i think fits. Then again it kinda looks like he was slowplaying the flop with a hand like 77,88,A8 or something and got scared by the turn card and decided to get it in right there. AT maybe fits as well, does he ever do this with AQ/AJ?

    Anyways, stick it in with AK here or dump it and look for a better spot?

    Insight appreciated
    91 12
  2. dolce dolce is offline

    Las Vegas, NV
    United States

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    Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 4:09pm) in reply to stevie444

    I pitch this 95% of the time even if you might be ahead; you're only beating AQ AJ and T9, really, but I think more often than not he shows up with a set or 2 pair here
  3. charder charder is offline

    Annapolis, MD
    United States

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    Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 4:11pm) in reply to dolce

    shove.
     
  4. triggathree triggathree is offline

    San Diego, CA
    United States

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    Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 4:12pm) in reply to stevie444

    I'd shove vs. most opponents there.

    Looks like a9 or some sort of nine there

    could also be aq/aj though unlikely 2 pair and set also possible

    Bet just looks so weak, I think I'd have to shove unless hes shown that he pots out on turn after check calling flop with a strong hand before.
     
  5. railbot railbot is offline

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    United States

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    Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 4:12pm) in reply to charder

    Im a freeroller so maybe my guess doesn't count,
    but i think he had a pair 7 or 8 and a with a 9 and the 10 on the turn handed him a str8 darw as well

    maybe 7-9 suited? or 8-9 suited? maybe then the turn handed him some more outs thinking he had the best draw he jams the pot?

    hoping to double on the river?
  6. cdbr3799 cdbr3799 is offline

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    United States

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    Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 4:18pm) in reply to triggathree

    I think a pair/draw hand would be looking to check raise all in or get a free card, rather than lead out here. I think this is usually AT or a set against anyone who isn't an idiot.
     
  7. donkkkkk donkkkkk is offline

    Canada

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    Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 4:22pm) in reply to stevie444

    I'd shove most of the time on this bet. I think its more of a definsive bet hoping you don't actually have the A. If he did have 2 pair or a straight, he probably would have check raised u all in..IMO
  8. triggathree triggathree is offline

    San Diego, CA
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    Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 4:23pm) in reply to cdbr3799

    I don't think anyone with a clue would play a hand like this

    check/call flop and pot turn.

    clear sign of donk unless there is some serious 25 leveling going on.
     
  9. Tsupa Tsupa is offline

    Mustang, OK
    United States

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    Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 4:28pm) in reply to stevie444

    I would say he probably has AT and doesn't want to give you a free shot at hitting a straight or heart flush against him.

    or

    He has Ahxh and is betting his draw + top pair

    or

    He has Ax9x and is betting his draw + top pair

    That being said.

    I fold most of the time and push the rest of the time
  10. stevie444 stevie444 is offline

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    Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 8:54pm) in reply to cdbr3799

    cdbr - do you not see this being someone commiting themselves with a draw very often? I have seen randoms do this a ton lately - often on the flop but sometimes not and its usually a pot bet for a large part of their stack oop, maybe its just me tho.
    91 12
    Thread Starter
  11. apestyles apestyles is offline Moderator

    Vancouver
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    Oct 19th, 2007 (10/19/2007 11:45pm) in reply to stevie444

    flat call> shove... Flat call at least gives him chance to bluff again, if he calls ur shove ur beat 80-90 percent. *edit - maybe not if he plans on calling w/ a draw

    I'm not sure if flat call > fold

    edit: meh, I'm not sure anymore. Although youre not often getting called by worse when you shove there are alot of bad rivers as mcleod says. This is one of those few spots where turning a hand that has a ton of value into kind of a bluff makes the most sense.
     282 12 

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  12. dams dams is offline

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    Oct 19th, 2007 (10/19/2007 11:52pm) in reply to railbot

    Your guess does count, but you need to join PokerXFactor stat.
  13. Suitedace87 Suitedace87 is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2007 (10/20/2007 12:06am) in reply to stevie444

    i'd rather make a small mistake against an unknown who is perfectly capable of doing this with a hand that has you dominated or that you have dominated as apposed to making a large mistake for my tourny life

    with that being said db his gfy ass and if he is an obv losing player then it may make it +ev to jam the pot here but if he has an avg db go back to small mistake poker

    hope this helps but i obv suck at life gl
  14. Andy McLEOD Andy McLEOD is offline

    Adelaide
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    Oct 20th, 2007 (10/20/2007 12:14am) in reply to stevie444

    i shove especially against the monkeys on full tilt.

    i prefer shoving to calling because there's a lot of scary rivers that you're going to struggle to call ... eg, river is a 9 (or 7 or J) he pushes his AQhh, gg you... or river is a heart, he pushes A9, etc. much prefer to get the money in now against a likely turned draw like A9s or just AQ. Muck against a good player.
    1
  15. apestyles apestyles is offline Moderator

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    Oct 20th, 2007 (10/20/2007 12:38am) in reply to Andy McLEOD

    if i flat call turn im never folding river...
     282 12 
  16. Andy McLEOD Andy McLEOD is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2007 (10/20/2007 1:25am) in reply to apestyles

    calling 2k more on such rivers as hearts, 9s, 7s and Js has to be a huge spew
    1
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