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Tough spot... Just gamble?? or wait for another spot??

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  1. boondock11 boondock11 is offline

    Chicago, IL
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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 3:16pm)

    I've never really been in this spot before or maybe never been in this spot in a $500 buy in. =P If its a normal $200 and below im prolly going with it 100% of the time.. just curious about your thoughts. Thanks.

    Stage #1742981385 Tourney ID 4416541 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 30 - 2009-06-28 14:51:20 (ET)
    Table: 14 (Real Money) Seat #9 is the dealer
    Seat 1 - PHAT_CAT (2,500 in chips)
    Seat 2 - DIPTHR0NG (2,740 in chips)
    Seat 4 - RUBINB (2,885 in chips)
    Seat 5 - JOHNTATLAW (2,949 in chips)
    Seat 6 - MYBALLZURFACE (3,013 in chips)
    Seat 7 - NIBBLER (2,815 in chips)
    Seat 8 - RIKISHI (2,833 in chips)
    Seat 9 - BOONDOCK1219 (4,265 in chips)
    PHAT_CAT - Posts small blind 15
    DIPTHR0NG - Posts big blind 30
    *** POCKET CARDS ***
    Dealt to BOONDOCK1219 [Jc Ac]
    RUBINB - Folds
    JOHNTATLAW - Folds
    MYBALLZURFACE - Raises 90 to 90
    NIBBLER - Folds
    RIKISHI - Folds
    BOONDOCK1219 - Calls 90
    PHAT_CAT - Calls 75
    DIPTHR0NG - Calls 60
    *** FLOP *** [Js 3c 7c]
    PHAT_CAT - Bets 210
    DIPTHR0NG - Raises 555 to 555
    MYBALLZURFACE - Folds
    BOONDOCK1219 -????
  2. Gags30 Gags30 is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 3:22pm) in reply to boondock11

    dipthrong always has a set here. unless it's live, then he has like Q4cc
    170 2 

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  3. doubledave22 doubledave22 is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 3:24pm) in reply to Gags30

    i put dip on aces tbh
     1
  4. boondock11 boondock11 is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 3:28pm) in reply to doubledave22

    i agree gags... so is this an easier fold then i think??
    Thread Starter
  5. zombesaurus zombesaurus is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 3:30pm) in reply to boondock11

    why bother to play if your not gonna go with this.. what if he just has kj or aj just like u.. or even a worse club draw. iono maybe im crazy but even kk and qq aren't that bad for u.. worse case he has a set u still have outs
  6. Gags30 Gags30 is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 3:34pm) in reply to boondock11

     
    Originally Posted by boondock11 View Post

    i agree gags... so is this an easier fold then i think??

    i was like trying to be funny when i wrote that...but it's actually true
    170 2 
  7. doubledave22 doubledave22 is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 3:35pm) in reply to zombesaurus

     
    Originally Posted by zombesaurus View Post

    why bother to play if your not gonna go with this.. what if he just has kj or aj just like u.. or even a worse club draw. iono maybe im crazy but even kk and qq aren't that bad for u.. worse case he has a set u still have outs

    i hardly ever do this but
    [ ] dip has AJ, KJ, and naked flush draws here
    he either has a set J7s maybeee or combo draw (which is what u actually are ahead of). u actually do have pretty good equity vs combo draws and sets so its probably fine either way
     1
  8. zombesaurus zombesaurus is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 3:47pm) in reply to doubledave22

    there aren't really any likely combo draws on this board, unless there combo gutshots, hes more likely to show up with a J than u are probaly trying to admit. i see no reason to think he couldn't assume a flush draw from his opponent or like a qj suited and put in a re raise to try to induce a fold from these type of hands hes up against a j7 here a small percentage of the time and a set a certain percentage of the time, but still seems ok
  9. boondock11 boondock11 is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 3:57pm) in reply to Gags30

     
    Originally Posted by Gags30 View Post

     
    Originally Posted by boondock11 View Post

    i agree gags... so is this an easier fold then i think??

    i was like trying to be funny when i wrote that...but it's actually true

    lol, i was actually confused when u said he was tight... but lose or not def a good chance he has a set. I guess it just depends on how often he does have a set. If not I have more outs obv. Might be early enough to take a gambke and build a stack. One of those situations where every one has a diff answer based on BR, if they are willoing to throw away a $500 buy in on a draw ect...
    Thread Starter
  10. doubledave22 doubledave22 is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 3:58pm) in reply to zombesaurus

     
    Originally Posted by zombesaurus View Post

    there aren't really any likely combo draws on this board, unless there combo gutshots, hes more likely to show up with a J than u are probaly trying to admit. i see no reason to think he couldn't assume a flush draw from his opponent or like a qj suited and put in a re raise to try to induce a fold from these type of hands hes up against a j7 here a small percentage of the time and a set a certain percentage of the time, but still seems ok

    omg no man ur just way off and i hope i dont come off sounding like a dick. Its dip like hes clearly not gonna have JQ here trying to get "j7" to fold. He can have alott of combo draws and its definitely in his range. 45cc, 56cc, 89cc, 9Tcc 46cc, 8Tcc. Youll see him show up with those infinitely more often than a dry jack which hes just never going to have. He has sets or the combo draws i labeled above. AJcc is even equity vs those assuming hes not raise folding those which i seriously doubt he ever is. It really doesnt matter if u take this spot or not but vs a tough field im way more inclined to take the gamble since they will give u less spots to chip up.
     1
  11. 8ntmuch 8ntmuch is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 4:19pm) in reply to doubledave22

    I'm not really a fan of AJ, but I think we have to go with it here. As mentioned above I think we are ahead of a lot of his range.
  12. 88XIN88 88XIN88 is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 4:20pm) in reply to boondock11

    This hand is too standard.

    Shove this all day everyday.
     
  13. doubledave22 doubledave22 is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 5:09pm) in reply to 88XIN88

    ur beating dips range assuming hes raise calling all of the above: 77,33,Tc9c,Tc8c,9c8c,6c5c,6c4c,5c4c which meh he may not since ur shove may look like exactly what u have. So ur basically breakeven vs him maybe long run and u gotta factor in phatcat who called a raise and is leading into like 4 people. Probably is fine either way seriously like it doesnt matter if u shove or fold.
     1
  14. goofy2485 goofy2485 is offline This thread sucks.

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 5:13pm) in reply to doubledave22

    Weird how nobody has mentioned KQcc in his range yet?

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  15. doubledave22 doubledave22 is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 5:34pm) in reply to goofy2485

     
    Originally Posted by goofy2485 View Post

    Weird how nobody has mentioned KQcc in his range yet?

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    ok i added it and it adds a little equity i still have reached the same conclusion that it seriously is super marginal and if u wanna gamble go for it but ur not gonna rape heaps doing it
     1
  16. 4Aces1King1 4Aces1King1 is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 5:45pm) in reply to boondock11

    Well, what did he have?
  17. boondock11 boondock11 is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 5:51pm) in reply to 4Aces1King1

    he had a set of threes... also to add more talk to the table... I got it in and the turn was an Ace.. how bad is flatting dips reraise and if u put him on a set and just flat then u must fold top 2 right?? I did have plenty of chips to flat there ect... i like the responses so far, def determined like DD22 said thats its a toss up to how it "should" be played.
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  18. doubledave22 doubledave22 is offline

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    Jun 28th, 2009 (6/28/2009 6:12pm) in reply to boondock11

     
    Originally Posted by boondock11 View Post

    he had a set of threes... also to add more talk to the table... I got it in and the turn was an Ace.. how bad is flatting dips reraise and if u put him on a set and just flat then u must fold top 2 right?? I did have plenty of chips to flat there ect... i like the responses so far, def determined like DD22 said thats its a toss up to how it "should" be played.

    do not flat i repeat do not flat. i cant even begin to describe how bad it is. It may be a tossup how to play it and since theres no definitive way u can def take the default and err on the side of aggression. math just says it doesnt matter if u shove or fold they are like very close. In the simplest way of describing it, you mathematically double half the time and bust the other half which is exaclty the same on average as just folding since u have like nothing at all invested. The best argument for shoving i can think of is that u can use those chips later to abuse/absorb beats so the chips u gain when u double may be worth >3000 which would make it more of a shove than a fold.
     1
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