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Tough spot...massive overbet

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  1. UNHClown UNHClown is offline

    Northborough, MA
    United States

    Posts: 95
    Joined: Mar 06

    Mar 28th, 2007 (3/28/2007 8:45pm)

    Ok...middle of a 4.40 and AQo utg. I've been running somewhat well and have only shown down strength. BB seems solid but nothing special...when this happens. What do you do? Note this is for CL with about 40 left.

    pokerstars Game #9137957602: Tournament #46432482, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2007/03/28 - 20:21:45 (ET)
    Table '46432482 9' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
    Seat 1: UNHClown (9673 in chips)
    Seat 2: CerebusJam (5470 in chips)
    Seat 3: nodiscount2 (4685 in chips)
    Seat 4: PA BigCheese (3910 in chips)
    Seat 5: Wekwekwek (6865 in chips)
    Seat 6: redbur (4713 in chips)
    Seat 7: Papaw13301 (4505 in chips)
    Seat 8: chipmcc (2210 in chips)
    Seat 9: J.Gushy (7595 in chips)
    chipmcc: posts small blind 100
    J.Gushy: posts big blind 200
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to UNHClown [Qd Ac]
    UNHClown: raises 400 to 600
    CerebusJam: folds
    nodiscount2: folds
    PA BigCheese: folds
    Wekwekwek: folds
    redbur: folds
    Papaw13301: folds
    chipmcc: folds
    J.Gushy: calls 400
    *** FLOP *** [Ah Js 7d]
    J.Gushy: checks
    UNHClown: bets 800
    J.Gushy: raises 6195 to 6995 and is all-in

    will post results and my thoughts after a few replies.
  2. redsox443 redsox443 is offline

    Norton, MA
    United States

    Posts: 109
    Joined: Jan 06

    Mar 28th, 2007 (3/28/2007 8:58pm) in reply to UNHClown

    I would fold, becuase the only thing you can beat is AT or lower, and I do not think he would make this kind of bet with that hand or worse. Seems like he might have AK or two pair.
  3. the_schmenx the_schmenx is offline

    Burgh
    Netherlands

    Posts: 5,194
    Joined: Jan 05

    Mar 28th, 2007 (3/28/2007 9:55pm) in reply to UNHClown

    My guess would be he's got AJ.

    1. He flat called pre and he probably would have raised with JJ AK AQ.

    2. I would guess most players at that level would cold call the 77 on the flop or make a small raise.

    3. There are no draws on the board so a checkraise with a draw is not part of the equation.

    You have plenty of chips and I would lean towards folding in almost every instance.
  4. d1am0ndc d1am0ndc is offline

    Posts: 2,568
    Joined: Dec 06

    Mar 29th, 2007 (3/29/2007 12:42am) in reply to the_schmenx

    I would've folded AQo UTG before the flop.
  5. Bejamin1 Bejamin1 is offline

    Ottawa
    Canada

    Posts: 5
    Joined: Mar 07

    Mar 29th, 2007 (3/29/2007 12:58am) in reply to UNHClown

    This is an obvious fold unless you have some obvious read about villain playing out of line. You raised UTG and if villain is solid like you said then he knows what your range is here. Flatting with AJ doesn't make much sense for him IMO, but it is a 4.40 so we'll assume its as much a possibility as him flatting with AK/JJ/77.

    The reality is villain isn't pushing here with anything AQ beats. At the very best you will occasionally split this pot. Folding is 100% the right play without a godly individual read which points in a different direction.

    He knows full well that an Ace is a likely holding for you and he's not bluffing in this spot with anything that doesn't beat AQ because he'd have to know he'd only be getting called by hands that beat him.
  6. babybu22 babybu22 is offline

    United States

    Posts: 79
    Joined: May 06

    Mar 29th, 2007 (3/29/2007 1:15am) in reply to Bejamin1

    its either A7 or J7, if he has AJ he would flat call and try to milk IMO. THe CL that you mention, you still have another 5-6 blind levels before the money so it seems to me that this is a solid fold unless the BB had been playing half retarded

    bb22
     
  7. d2themfi d2themfi is offline

    United States

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    Mar 29th, 2007 (3/29/2007 4:45am) in reply to UNHClown

    If this were a cash game I think this is very read dependent on the type of player you have. But this is a tourney so your analysis must change. First this is a 4 dpollar touney so the level of play is not going to be great for the most part. Therefore I think this is a relly big hand or nada. And when I sya nada i mean like a pocket pair that didnt hit or KQ for a gutshot or similar hand. Or it could be aa, jj, 77, aj, or a7, or maybe ak. Now even whitout figuring out if your ahead or behind you have to ask yourself what your standing in the tourney is and how big of an edge you have on your table and the rest of the table. If you are the worst player at the table or close to it i think calling starts to look a little better. But given that you have a very healthy stacka nd will still have over 40 bb if you fold I think this makes it a clear fold in this tourney situation. With people making huge raises like this without a top hand(presumably) you should have a bigger edge in the future when your hand is stronger.

    I will be interested to know if you called and if so what was shown down...
     
  8. UNHClown UNHClown is offline

    Northborough, MA
    United States

    Posts: 95
    Joined: Mar 06

    Mar 29th, 2007 (3/29/2007 12:56pm) in reply to d1am0ndc

    then you don't play too many 4.40s...
    Thread Starter
  9. UNHClown UNHClown is offline

    Northborough, MA
    United States

    Posts: 95
    Joined: Mar 06

    Mar 29th, 2007 (3/29/2007 1:05pm) in reply to d2themfi

    I prolly should have stated in the OP that my timebank was gone so I had 15 secs to make my decision. I put him on AK (but figured repop pre since he'd be OOP) AT A9. I figure he's raising small with 2 pair and cold calling with a set for a raise on the turn. Also considering this is a 4.40 I like to gamble for a large stack to bully once the bubble comes. So I decided to call. He flipped AK and I was at 2k.

    I had made two laydowns earlier in probably tougher spots than this but for some reason I just couldn't do it here. Thanks for the replies guys.
    Thread Starter
  10. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

    Westland, MI
    United States

    Posts: 6,364
    Joined: Mar 06

    Mar 29th, 2007 (3/29/2007 1:59pm) in reply to UNHClown

    I'm curious, was this player at the table when you made the other big laydowns? I've noticed, once I make 2 laydowns after raises at the same table, the table likes to pick on you. You'll get popped like this everytime you make a bet.

    AK was definitely in his range here. I could just see any ace calling from the BB, and this raise being any Ax hand. So, you hate to make the call here, but I can see why you did it.

    As a rule, probably better to lay it down, but you'll win occasionally calling here.
  11. splashthapot splashthapot is offline

    Escanaba, MI
    United States

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    Mar 29th, 2007 (3/29/2007 5:09pm) in reply to UNHClown

    I dont play these but i think id call, everytime i watch my friends play these i see atrocious plays...guess it depends on if you think hes decent or not. Saw the results and i think hes gonna have ak more so than aj or a7...good call just not in this particular hand!
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