Ugh. Getting about 2:1 to call. This is messy. They're ranges here are sooo wide that its hard to understand what your up against. I mean you could be facing 4 over and needing to dodge 12 outs, they could be sharing outs, and conceivably they could have underpairs. Very hard problem imo.

Sorry I was no help but I'd love to hear what others think.

My gut tells me that you would need to be very lucky to rake both pots but proly are a favorite to win one.

I don't think calling or folding is bad. I think calling might be a little better here because you have the chance win a really nice sized pot while only risking about a quarter of your stack. And the liklihood of u losing both is somewhat small when compared to the price ur gettign to call.

I thnk this also depends on how your table is. YOu have a nice stack to steal with. ARe you able to run the tbl over and still blinds and antes at will? If so maybe you wanna fold and keep the tbl intact a lil while longer and keep stealing?

Great post. My head prolly would have exploded and as a result i would have timed out.

Damnit my edit was deleted so I'll try again. The 3bb shove really doesn't matter because we still win chips if we beat utg range. And judging by past players, they shove Axs utg so call and play with 20bbs if you lose.

I call.

 

Originally Posted by Frank1The1Tank

 

Originally Posted by IAmLegend

snap shove

So what is your range for calling if this spot w/ 88 is a "snap shove"

well, i think we really need some sort of read on utg to give an appropriate range. if this is me shoving utg, i get it in against myself with 44+,A9+,KQ and maybe even KJ, lol...if this is a random tight/dumb $24 player, i get it in here with 88+AJs+AQo+...sometimes i fold AJ depending on a read or my stack size

with no read, 88 is probably the lightest i'm getting it in here....88+AQ+ can't be too bad of a range though. if you win the side pot, you're freerolling for the main pot.

 

Originally Posted by IAmLegend

 

Originally Posted by Frank1The1Tank

 

Originally Posted by IAmLegend

snap shove

So what is your range for calling if this spot w/ 88 is a "snap shove"

probably 77+ AT+ KQ

also im not calling im shoving

It's not a "shove" since you're last to act and the two players are already all in. It's simply calling or folding, since nobody else has to act.

 

Originally Posted by IAmLegend

obviously didnt see you were in the big blind

so do the obvious in your head and realize that me saying shove=call

I did the obvious when I quoted you the first time. You then corrected me again, which is why I had to again correct you. Relax big guy.

 

Originally Posted by Que1620

I originally thought this was going be a call, but after fiiddling around with pokerstove, I think you can confidently fold your hand here.

I thought about trying to explain it with percentages and ranges, but I am not very good at communicating like that. Basically, this is going to be just barely a +ev call, just barely, and thats if you assume their hand ranges are pretty wide. So if you even wanted to consider making this call, I think you need significant info telling you UTG is atleast an aggressive shortstack player, or loose/aggressive player in general. Even if you knew that, I wouldn't be opposed to just mucking this hand and saving 1/3rd of your stack which you can use in much more clear situations (which you will have no problem finding in these $26 donkaments).

what would you believe to be pretty wide?

better yet just give a shoving range for utg

 

Originally Posted by Que1620

I think it depends greatly on your type of player.

If he is an experienced winning player, who plays an aggressive shortstack:

66+ A9s+ ATo+ KQo KQs

If hes a less experienced player, you might actually find that this deep in tournaments that shove from UTG is a really tight range, easily 77+ AQo+.

Thing is, if you throw in the shortstack with a really wide range 22+. A2s+ A7o+ any two broadway (excluding JT QT), which I think is reasonable considering his dire chip situation.

take your 88 up against the first utg range I gave you get about 33% equity. If you take that wide range, along with the tighter utg range I gave you have about 29% equity.

there is absolutely no way that any inexperienced tight player folds AJ or AT from utg with that stack...probably not KQ either

fwiw i think this is more accurate:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.008% 35.47% 01.53% 23070803 997429.33 { 66+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 32.806% 31.20% 01.60% 20291544 1043749.83 { 55+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 30.186% 29.11% 01.08% 18932315 699531.33 { 88 }

that's for the main pot, which we're basically calling 28k to win 76k...and then for the side pot it's 88 vs the utg range, which is:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.817% 54.13% 00.69% 583939488 7402728.00 { 66+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 45.183% 44.50% 00.69% 480006576 7402728.00 { 88 }

idk...it's really close. you're basically flipping vs. this range for the side pot, which if you win, you're then freerolling the main which we're again basically flipping...

if anyone is folding 88 here they've gotta be getting in 99...i don't hate a fold here...but fwiw i get it, it's a pretty good spot with your stack to flip for an enormous pot

 

Originally Posted by Gags30

 

Originally Posted by Que1620

there is absolutely no way that any inexperienced tight player folds AJ or AT from utg with that stack...probably not KQ either

You are probably right in most cases, so lets fix that range to...

77+, ATo+, A9s+, KQo, KQs

But just so you know, there are players who are playing that tight, especially at this stage in a tournament. Yesterday I played the final table of a $50 MTT on FTP, and there was a player who had 80k at 3k/6k when the final table started. He proceeded to not play a hand until he had 14k left at 4k/8k.

I think my main point though is, no matter how you adjust the ranges, its still only gonna be slightly +ev for the entire pot, and if you manage to only win the sidepot, you will only profit on the 20k. The field deep in these tournaments is often very weak, and spending a 1/3rd of your stack in this spot, as unclear as it is, seems unnecessary in accomplishing your goal.

 

Originally Posted by Que1620

 

Originally Posted by Gags30

 

Originally Posted by Que1620

there is absolutely no way that any inexperienced tight player folds AJ or AT from utg with that stack...probably not KQ either

You are probably right in most cases, so lets fix that range to...

77+, ATo+, A9s+, KQo, KQs

But just so you know, there are players who are playing that tight, especially at this stage in a tournament. Yesterday I played the final table of a $50 MTT on FTP, and there was a player who had 80k at 3k/6k when the final table started. He proceeded to not play a hand until he had 14k left at 4k/8k.

I think my main point though is, no matter how you adjust the ranges, its still only gonna be slightly +ev for the entire pot, and if you manage to only win the sidepot, you will only profit on the 20k. The field deep in these tournaments is often very weak, and spending a 1/3rd of your stack in this spot, as unclear as it is, seems unnecessary in accomplishing your goal.

if you really think utg is shoving as wide as A9s, then there is no doubt that you get 88 in here. overall, it may be slightly +ev to win the whole pot, but even times that you don't win the hwole pot, yo'ull take down the side and basically break even...idk, i just can't see this being a fold, especially on ftp where antes are big and having a lot of chips is such an advantage