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Tough spot.. what to do here?

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  1. 5iveofakind 5iveofakind is offline

    Cupertino, CA
    United States

    Posts: 15
    Joined: Nov 06

    Oct 6th, 2007 (10/6/2007 12:48am)

    "Tough spot" in the Stars Nightly 100k I guess.. down to just under 200 players left, top 90 gets paid. Table's been fairly tight. I've been playing tight and I assume I have a fairly tight image as well.

    pokerstars Game #12461702950: Tournament #62496930, $150+$12 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2007/10/05 - 23:18:20 (ET)
    Table '62496930 41' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
    Seat 2: jdollas (10388 in chips)
    Seat 3: sideshowgil (25797 in chips)
    Seat 4: I The King I (15158 in chips)
    Seat 5: rcrane082985 (15240 in chips)
    Seat 6: TheClap00 (26979 in chips)
    Seat 7: jofusv2 (27479 in chips)
    Seat 8: 5iveofaKind (10009 in chips)
    Seat 9: nugget1968 (19569 in chips)
    jdollas: posts the ante 20
    sideshowgil: posts the ante 20
    I The King I: posts the ante 20
    rcrane082985: posts the ante 20
    TheClap00: posts the ante 20
    jofusv2: posts the ante 20
    5iveofaKind: posts the ante 20
    nugget1968: posts the ante 20
    jofusv2: posts small blind 200
    5iveofaKind: posts big blind 400
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to 5iveofaKind [8h Jh]
    nugget1968: folds
    BabyRyan31 is connected
    jdollas: folds
    sideshowgil: folds
    I The King I: calls 400
    rcrane082985: calls 400
    TheClap00: folds
    jofusv2: folds
    5iveofaKind: checks
    *** FLOP *** [Ts 7h 9d]
    5iveofaKind: checks
    I The King I: checks
    rcrane082985: checks
    *** TURN *** [Ts 7h 9d] [Kh]
    5iveofaKind: bets 800
    I The King I: calls 800
    rcrane082985: calls 800
    *** RIVER *** [Ts 7h 9d Kh] [Qh]
    5iveofaKind: bets 2000
    I The King I: calls 2000
    rcrane082985: raises 12020 to 14020 and is all-in

    ???

    I The King I hesitated for a bit before calling, probably has a straight. rcrane didn't take that much thinking before shoving all-in. He hasn't been out of line and seems like a decent player. I think I'm probably beat here but can I still lay it down? Is it possible that he's pushing in w/ AJ or a smaller flush here? If I call and I'm right, I'm at 23.5k, around top 15 in chips. If I'm wrong, I'm out. I have the option to lay it down and still have 6.8k chips left to play. Getting about 2.47:1 odds to call here (not sure if it matters that much here since my decision is for my whole tourney life) but basically if I feel like my hand is good here at least 28.8% of the time (1 out of 3.47 times), I think I should make the call. What to do??
     
  2. Dokuro Dokuro is offline

    Canada

    Posts: 254
    Joined: Sep 06

    Oct 6th, 2007 (10/6/2007 5:49am) in reply to 5iveofakind

    Fold. Three people in the pot, the flop was checked then the heart showed up. You bet 2/3 of the pot, they all called. Total of pot is $3400 something (don't want to do math atm). You bet $2000, King calls, rcrane pushes.

    You're beaten, you can leave the hand and pick a better spot.
  3. shady1128 shady1128 is offline

    Buffalo, NY
    United States

    Posts: 602
    Joined: Aug 07

    Oct 6th, 2007 (10/6/2007 8:13am) in reply to Dokuro

    He's got the second nuts. Although it did get checked around on the flop that doesn't necessarily mean they both had to have flush draws and if one of them did it didn't mean they had to have the nut flush draw. It is tough, but I call here.
  4. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is offline

    Greenville, MS
    United States

    Posts: 1,999
    Joined: May 07

    Oct 6th, 2007 (10/6/2007 8:35am) in reply to 5iveofakind

    Dealt to 5iveofaKind(10009) [8h Jh]<<<Short stack & you have (9589 behind)
    *** FLOP *** [Ts 7h 9d]
    Pot = 1560
    Checked around. They limped. Why give them a freeroll to beat you. If a scare card comes out, you have no information where you stand.
    I don't understand why you don't take a shot at the pot with the NUTZ on the flop.

    *** TURN *** [Ts 7h 9d] [Kh]
    Now one of those scare cards hits the board, but if they have the top str8 you have a re-draw to the flush. You bet pretty anemic & the opposition calls along. You're OOP, why do you want to slow play.

    *** RIVER *** [Ts 7h 9d Kh] [Qh]

    I think you're hand is good more than 28%. This is still chip accumulation stage. If you fold, you're down to 6800 chips with the blinds rising shortly. You're basically down to 10bb, almost in push/fold with 9 hands to play. Maybe you get one more pass through the blinds if you don't pick up a pot soon. You'll have to pick up two double ups to get back in action. If you double up after folding, you'll still be the short stack. I think this is a tough decision, but one you need to call.

    You 1/2 pot turn & 1/2 pot river, looks like you're betting scared & ready to fold.
  5. 5iveofakind 5iveofakind is offline

    Cupertino, CA
    United States

    Posts: 15
    Joined: Nov 06

    Oct 6th, 2007 (10/6/2007 10:16am) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    "Checked around. They limped. Why give them a freeroll to beat you. If a scare card comes out, you have no information where you stand.
    I don't understand why you don't take a shot at the pot with the NUTZ on the flop."

    I assume I am way ahead in the hand so I am not worried about giving a free card and I am willing to slowplay to disguise my strength of my hand. I don't see how checking on that board is going to give someone a shot at beating me. Worst case scenario someone has KQ/QJ or something and hits the higher straight than so be it. Argument for leading out there I guess would be to build the pot with the nuts there but with that board I think it's relatively safe to slowplay. I think I would more likely to bet it if there was say a flush draw on there. Don't get me wrong, I checked to get some info and re-evaluate what I want to do given the action behind me. Obv, I at least plan on check/calling or check/raising there. I think if one guy bet and one call, I might go w/ the check raise there and go heads-up but if one guy bets and the other folds, I can be more willing to check/call with the intent to check raise the turn or something like that.

    "You 1/2 pot turn & 1/2 pot river, looks like you're betting scared & ready to fold."

    You're kind of right.. it could be either one of those defensive bets or a value-bet for the straight or something and it kind of was. That could make an argument for why calling would be a viable option here.

    I think if I thought it out harder I probably would lay it down as I can't figure what I can beat with his reshove. His hand almost has to be near nuts w/ that dangerous board. I think even w/ AJ or a mid to low flush he would just smooth call. I think flopping the nuts w/ the expectation to make something out of the hand and then even having it improve made me kind of unwilling to let it go but I just wanted to know how "bad" or if the call was reasonable there. My guess would be the former, oh well.. here's the full HH if you're interested:

    pokerstars Game #12461702950: Tournament #62496930, $150+$12 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2007/10/05 - 23:18:20 (ET)
    Table '62496930 41' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
    Seat 2: jdollas (10388 in chips)
    Seat 3: sideshowgil (25797 in chips)
    Seat 4: I The King I (15158 in chips)
    Seat 5: rcrane082985 (15240 in chips)
    Seat 6: TheClap00 (26979 in chips)
    Seat 7: jofusv2 (27479 in chips)
    Seat 8: 5iveofaKind (10009 in chips)
    Seat 9: nugget1968 (19569 in chips)
    jdollas: posts the ante 20
    sideshowgil: posts the ante 20
    I The King I: posts the ante 20
    rcrane082985: posts the ante 20
    TheClap00: posts the ante 20
    jofusv2: posts the ante 20
    5iveofaKind: posts the ante 20
    nugget1968: posts the ante 20
    jofusv2: posts small blind 200
    5iveofaKind: posts big blind 400
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to 5iveofaKind [8h Jh]
    nugget1968: folds
    BabyRyan31 is connected
    jdollas: folds
    sideshowgil: folds
    I The King I: calls 400
    rcrane082985: calls 400
    TheClap00: folds
    jofusv2: folds
    5iveofaKind: checks
    *** FLOP *** [Ts 7h 9d]
    5iveofaKind: checks
    I The King I: checks
    rcrane082985: checks
    *** TURN *** [Ts 7h 9d] [Kh]
    5iveofaKind: bets 800
    I The King I: calls 800
    rcrane082985: calls 800
    *** RIVER *** [Ts 7h 9d Kh] [Qh]
    5iveofaKind: bets 2000
    I The King I: calls 2000
    rcrane082985: raises 12020 to 14020 and is all-in
    5iveofaKind: calls 6789 and is all-in
    I The King I: folds
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    rcrane082985: shows [Ah 5h] (a flush, Ace high)
    5iveofaKind: shows [8h Jh] (a flush, King high)
    rcrane082985 collected 23538 from pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 23538 | Rake 0
    Board [Ts 7h 9d Kh Qh]
    Seat 2: jdollas folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 3: sideshowgil folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 4: I The King I folded on the River
    Seat 5: rcrane082985 showed [Ah 5h] and won (23538) with a flush, Ace high
    Seat 6: TheClap00 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 7: jofusv2 (small blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 8: 5iveofaKind (big blind) showed [8h Jh] and lost with a flush, King high
    Seat 9: nugget1968 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
     
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