The results are at the bottom but only because it was such a sick way of how it happend.

Alright here is what makes the hand so sick, Pangaman is already in the BB with a 830 stack so........830-600-50 = 180 in chips once the hands are dealt for the BB.

PokerStars Game #18137512656: Tournament #92073054, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2008/06/14 - 17:51:48 (ET)
Table '92073054 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: College53 (3935 in chips)
Seat 5: gihdahbaface (2360 in chips)
Seat 6: Pangaman (830 in chips) - this is not me this is the SB
Seat 7: DeLosAndes (6375 in chips)
College53: posts the ante 50
gihdahbaface: posts the ante 50
Pangaman: posts the ante 50
DeLosAndes: posts the ante 50
gihdahbaface: posts small blind 300
Pangaman: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gihdahbaface [Kd As]
DeLosAndes: raises 5725 to 6325 and is all-in
College53: folds
gihdahbaface: ???????????????

K, now, its obvious and a very standard play that CL (delosandes) is shoving ATC. The set up is too perfect for him with the SS in the BB obviously. And it folds around to me laughing because of the fact that I am in such a sick spot.

Usually when I play, I do 4 tables on my small and shitty mac screen. Well I already went busto in all 3 due to some unlucky flips. So this was my last one. Obv you want to cash here but when you go 0 for 3, for me at least, folding my way into 3rd place is just like going 0 for 4 since 3rd is only a measly $4.30 profit. So lets say I call here and double up, I have a good shot at taking this down and winning my other 3 buyins back and probably finishing the 4 table session at even or barely a profit.

So the question is to all you sng players. Do you fold here for the money or do you call going for 1st?



Here are the results and this was the sickest hand ever on an sng bubble. dont read if you havent seen the set up!


Dealt to gihdahbaface [Kd As]
DeLosAndes: raises 5725 to 6325 and is all-in
College53: folds
gihdahbaface: calls 2010 and is all-in (so I call)
Pangaman: folds

gihdahbaface: shows [Kd As] (two pair, Kings and Eights)
DeLosAndes: shows [Ac 8c] (three of a kind, Eights)

NICE, I GOT HIM SMOKED!

*** FLOP *** [4h 8s 6d] dfgdgjwegkljv -DAMNIT!!!
*** TURN *** [4h 8s 6d] [Ks] ZOMG I CANT BELIEVE I HIT
*** RIVER *** [4h 8s 6d Ks] [8h] sssssssiiiiiiiiiccccccccckkkkkk
*** SHOW DOWN ***

He wins I lose obv because I run bad. haha.

hope yall enjoyed reading this. GL and thanks for the replies.

I insta-fold here.

Edit: Misread HH. Thought you were 2nd in chips. Call and lose but for future reference what you do in other sng's has no bearing on the current situation. Thinking like that is -EV.

this isnt a sick spot. you call. you have 2 choices. you fold, and blind out because the 2300 guy knows youre never gonna play a hand. or you call and at least give yourself a chance with what is obviously the best hand here.

if both 3rd and 4th and both folding to the bubble, how is it every profitable for 4th to squeeze?

edit

ok, I now notice youre the guy with 2300. I still call. one victory will make up for 3 losses. whats another loss when all that you gain from finishing 3rd is like 1/2 a buy in?

I guess it depends. If you want to make the "correct" play that earns the most $$ profit then you should probably just fold. If you want to win and don't care about giving up some $$ equity to chase the chip equity, go ahead as long as you understand the consequences.

In other words, when you make this call you'll win chips over the long term, but you'll lose money. So I guess it comes down to your motivation for playing? Do you play for maximum profit, or do you play for the thrill of winning?

I'm sure Jen will explain this way better than me, but anyways:

Your chips have a monetary value. They are worth some money. If you win, your chip's value will increase........But never as much as their value decreases in case you lose the hand.
If you double up, you don't have a 1st place finish guaranteed, which would justify the call. Only thing you'd have guaranteed is 3rd place, which is exactly what you have now, unless you make a mistake.

One thing I always find intersting in this kind of situations, is people talking about " playing to win". I guess there's people out there playing to "lose" huh?

As a general rule, in a SNG bubble situation, if CL shoves, and there's a super-short stack, 2nd and 3rd stacks at the table can only play ACES, IMO.

Sorry to hijack but this is kinda the same deal and I figured we'd just kill two threads with one stone so to speak.

I'm guessing given Seat 9 is soooo short I should be folding this even in a blind v blind situation in which I have shover covered?

Full Tilt Poker Game #6825973529: Tier One $8+$0.70 (Turbo) (51880424), Table 1 - 300/600 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:31:44 ET - 2008/06/14
Seat 1: dlcmic (4,400)
Seat 3: digitalprop (2,420)
Seat 4: SnakeJake117 (1,160)
Seat 5: Jaded Jude (13,770)
Seat 6: gametime0924 (1,930)
Seat 8: Baby_Bugsy (2,570)
Seat 9: SaschaSB (750)
gametime0924 posts the small blind of 300
Baby_Bugsy posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Baby_Bugsy [8c Ac]
SaschaSB folds
dlcmic folds
digitalprop folds
SnakeJake117 has 15 seconds left to act
SnakeJake117 folds
Jaded Jude folds
gametime0924 raises to 1,930, and is all in
Baby_Bugsy calls 1,330
gametime0924 shows [Kh Qh]
Baby_Bugsy shows [8c Ac]
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ah 7c]
*** TURN *** [Jc Ah 7c] [4d]
*** RIVER *** [Jc Ah 7c 4d] [Ts]
gametime0924 shows a straight, Ace high
Baby_Bugsy shows a pair of Aces
gametime0924 wins the pot (3,860) with a straight, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3,860 | Rake 0
Board: [Jc Ah 7c 4d Ts]
Seat 1: dlcmic didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: digitalprop didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: SnakeJake117 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Jaded Jude (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: gametime0924 (small blind) showed [Kh Qh] and won (3,860) with a straight, Ace high
Seat 8: Baby_Bugsy (big blind) showed [8c Ac] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 9: SaschaSB didn't bet (folded)

gtfo frictionless

 

Originally Posted by andressoprano

FOLD, and it's not even close

.....sigh.....way wrong

According to SNG Wizard, there's no pushing range you can put him on that would make this a call. It does get close if he's pushing any two, but still slightly -$EV.

Edit:
Made a mistake. Had you on the button. If he's shoving about 30% or more of his hands you can call, which he should be, but it still is fairly close and if cashing does mean a lot to you, you can fold. You would lose equity in the long run though

Okay, wow this is a hell of a spot. Most of the time from 3rd place, you can fold AKo to the chipleader's shove, but in this case, it's a call. I'll prove it.

First of all, it is not, by any means completely standard for DeLosAndes to shove any two here. The reason the chipleader shoves any two so often on the bubble is because he can get folds. In this case, he has no fold equity, so shoving any two would be spew.

With the shortstack in the BB, he can shove about the top 50% of hands.

So let's focus on our decision, going under the assumption that the BB will fold if we call.

If we fold, one of these two things happens:
<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Chips</TH><TH>Prob 1st</TH><TH>Prob 2nd</TH><TH>Prob 3rd</TH><TH>Equity</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Hero
</TD><TD>2010</TD><TD>0.1489</TD><TD>0.2522</TD><TD>0.5989</TD><TD>$14.57</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Fat stack wins
</TD><TD>7605</TD><TD>0.5633</TD><TD>0.3262</TD><TD>0.1105</TD><TD>$21.69</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Shorty loses
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0.0000</TD><TD>0.0000</TD><TD>0.0000</TD><TD>$0.00</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>college53
</TD><TD>3885</TD><TD>0.2878</TD><TD>0.4216</TD><TD>0.2906</TD><TD>$17.74</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
or
<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Chips</TH><TH>Prob 1st</TH><TH>Prob 2nd</TH><TH>Prob 3rd</TH><TH>Equity</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Hero
</TD><TD>2010</TD><TD>0.1489</TD><TD>0.1908</TD><TD>0.2727</TD><TD>$10.06</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Fat stack loses
</TD><TD>5545</TD><TD>0.4107</TD><TD>0.3118</TD><TD>0.1953</TD><TD>$18.25</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Shorty wins
</TD><TD>2060</TD><TD>0.1526</TD><TD>0.1947</TD><TD>0.2763</TD><TD>$10.26</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>college53
</TD><TD>3885</TD><TD>0.2878</TD><TD>0.3028</TD><TD>0.2557</TD><TD>$15.44</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Since the caller is calling 100%, scenario 1 is a little more likely, so our average equity, if we fold, will be about $12.50.

If we call and lose, we drop to $0 because we are out.

If we call and win:

<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Chips</TH><TH>Prob 1st</TH><TH>Prob 2nd</TH><TH>Prob 3rd</TH><TH>Equity</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Hero
</TD><TD>5420</TD><TD>0.4015</TD><TD>0.3376</TD><TD>0.2452</TD><TD>$18.96</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Former big stack
</TD><TD>4015</TD><TD>0.2974</TD><TD>0.3237</TD><TD>0.3513</TD><TD>$17.07</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Shorty
</TD><TD>180</TD><TD>0.0133</TD><TD>0.0200</TD><TD>0.0394</TD><TD>$1.11</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>college58
</TD><TD>3885</TD><TD>0.2878</TD><TD>0.3187</TD><TD>0.3642</TD><TD>$16.87</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

So we risk $12.50 to win $6.46.

$12.50/$18.96 is 65.9%, so in order to mathematically profit, we must win 65.9% of the time against whatever the shover is shoving.

If he is shoving what he should be, 49% of all hands, our calling range is TT+, AKs, making AKo a very close fold.

If he is shoving 100%, our calling range 77, AQs+, and AKo is still a very close fold.

So the math says to baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarely fold.

Forget the math, and forget ICM, THIS IS A CALL........and here's why:

Although ICM is by far the best way to analyze SNGs, it has limitations, and here are the limitations of ICM that favor calling:

ICM does not account for where the blinds are, and who is next to eat the BB.

ICM calculators underestimate the leverage of a dominating stack who knows what they are doing.

Metagame considerations

This is how this affects this specific situation:

- If we fold and the shorty wins, the ICM calculator puts our equity at $10.06. The truth of the matter is that as a co-shortstack, we will be abused to hell by college and DeLos, so our true equity is lower than that.

- If we call, the BB should only call with AK or JJ or better:
<TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TH width=40>PU</TH><TH width=40>CA</TH><TH width=40>OC</TH><TH>Range</TH></TR><TR><TD>CO</TD><TD><TD><TD>49.0%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q3s+ Q8o+ J5s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 85s+ 75s+ 64s+ 54s <<what the cutoff should shove if all players are perfect</TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BU</TD><TD><TD>1.4%, QQ+ </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>0.5%, AA </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>0.5%, AA </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD>2.6%, TT+ AKs <<what you should call if all players are perfect</TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>3.0%, JJ+ AKs AKo <<what the BB should overcall with if you call. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS GOING TO PLAY THIS SITUATION THIS TIGHT UNLESS HE IS A TRUE EXPERT</TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>100.0%, Any two</TD></TR><TR><TD>BU</TD><TD><TD><TD>32.7%, 22+ Ax+ K5s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J7s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 87s 76s </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD>1.4%, QQ+ </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>1.7%, QQ+ AKs </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>100.0%, Any two</TD></TR><TR><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD><TD>100.0%, Any two</TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>100.0%, Any two</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
We can reasonably assume that a lot of people in the BB's spot will think that they are priced in and will call, or will at the very least call with a lot more hands than JJ or AK. In the event that he calls more often, that is very good for us. We bubble a lot less often because if the big stack beats us both, we still get 3rd, which is $10.80, and not a disaster!

- If we call and win, our equity, per ICM, is $18.96, but that fails to take one important factor into account. With the stacks at 5420, 4015, 3885, 180, we have a very dominating position and the ability to just crush the bubble and abuse the other players! So our true equity would be greater than $18.96 for sure, and possibly as high as $20-21! therefore, we stand to gain more than the math suggests.

Since our risk is less than ICM suggests, and our reward is greater than ICM suggests, that turns this mathematically close fold into a very tough, good CALL.

Very nice post Jenn.

- If we call and win, our equity, per ICM, is $18.96, but that fails to take one important factor into account. With the stacks at 5420, 4015, 3885, 180, we have a very dominating position and the ability to just crush the bubble and abuse the other players! So our true equity would be greater than $18.96 for sure, and possibly as high as $20-21! therefore, we stand to gain more than the math suggests.

Since our risk is less than ICM suggests, and our reward is greater than ICM suggests, that turns this mathematically close fold into a very tough, good CALL
This is way Jen is the best poker analizer around. After reading some of her posts I feel like I haven't played a poker hand correctly in my entire life.