so my friend and i have been arguing for the past few days regarding the below hand. his argument is pretty much that he had a horrible feeling about the hand and knew in his "gut" that he wasn't going to win.

we're not going to be results oriented here, but i think it's pretty obv what the right play is here. utg limper is horribad and although he could possibly be limping AA or KK here, i doubt that he's flatting the shortstack shove as many low stakes horribad players are insta-reshipping because their scared. given his flat, i put him on a small to mid pair and JJ obv crushes that range (regardless if he does have AA or KK it's just a cooler given stack sizes imo). we're obv not worried about the shortstack with ~8bb's as his range is incredibly wide.

clearly his limp is bad with JJ as he can't be set mining (which is what he was basically doing)

so my question, how often do you go with your gut even though the math/your poker knowledge tells you otherwise?

pokerstars Game #28514100778: Tournament #163921339, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em No
Limit - Level XXV (2500/5000) - 2009/05/22 21:23:31 PT [2009/05/23 0:23:31 ET]
Table '163921339 129' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: PoKerS191trA (209009 in chips)
Seat 2: KinkyApe (102893 in chips)
Seat 3: xxxxxxxxx (102097 in chips)
Seat 4: MO GREEN 23 (89314 in chips)
Seat 5: nrstar (64559 in chips)
Seat 6: BADHAND31 (42521 in chips)
Seat 7: Goski119 (186920 in chips)
Seat 8: flipstuff (39500 in chips)
Seat 9: bestwoman127 (160656 in chips)
PoK erS191trA: posts the ante 625
KinkyApe: posts the ante 625
xxxxxxxx: posts the ante 625
MO GREEN 23: posts the ante 625
nrstar: posts the ante 625
BADHAND31: posts the ante 625
Goski119: posts the ante 625
flipstuff: posts the ante 625
bestwoman127: posts the ante 625
flipstuff: posts small blind 2500
bestwoman127: posts big blind 5000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to xxxxxxxx [Jd Js]
PoKerS191trA: calls 5000
KinkyApe: folds
xxxxxxxx:=2 0calls 5000
MO GREEN 23: folds
nrstar: folds
BADHAND31: calls 5000
Goski119: calls 5000
flipstuff: raises 33875 to 38875 and is all-in
bestwoman127: folds
PoKerS191trA: calls 33875
xxxxxxxxx: raises 62597 to 101472 and is all-in
BADHAND31: folds
Goski119: folds
PoKerS191trA: calls 62597
*** FLOP *** [8c 7s 5h]
*** TURN *** [8c 7s 5h] [Kd]
beavis3437 [observer] said, "J"
*** RIVER *** [8c 7s 5h Kd] [6h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PoKerS191trA: shows [9h 9c] (a straight, Five to Nine)
xxxxxxxx: shows [Jd Js] (a pair of Jacks)
PoKerS191trA collected 125194 from side pot
flipstuff: shows [As Ac] (a pair of Aces)
MO GREEN 23 said, "MBN"
PoKerS191trA collected 137250 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 262444 Main pot 137250. Side pot 125194. | Rake 0
Board [8c 7s 5h Kd 6h]
Seat 1: PoKerS191trA showed [9h 9c] and won (262444) with a straight, Five to
Nine
Seat 2: KinkyApe folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: xxxxxxxxx showed [Jd Js] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 4: MO GREEN 23 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: nrstar folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: BADHAND31 folded before Flop
Seat 7: Goski119 (button) folded before Flop
Seat 8: flipstuff (small blind) showed [As Ac] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 9: bestwoman127 (big blind) folded before Flop

I think the hero in this hand did both of the options you gave us.

I'm obv not crazy about the EP limp with JJ, but I can only assume he was essentially trapping with it and got exactly what he wanted when the pot got raised and called.

I'm thinking shove > fold > call.

Assign a range to your opponnent and act accordingly, there is no such thing as playing by your gut, it still boils down to math.

If your gut tells you someone has AA and AA only and you fold, you still assigned a range, did math, and acted accordingly.

The question is if your assigning ranges well or if your gut sucks at poker.

ummm didnt read whole thing but .... if you play alot and are decent then isnt playing with your "gut" a good way to play?

i have no problem with playing with your "gut", but it has to work both ways. you must be willing to play the hands you have a "good feeling about" accordingly.

oh yeah: hope you aren't wrong very often. :)

 

Originally Posted by JLizard

the power of positive thinking ftw.

EDIT: also whoever is railing you calling for a jack should know better you have to call for the ace or the 9 possibly maybe 33% of the time. I mean wtf N00b or what.

meh, was me railing, this is my friends hh... this is obv the reason he lost the pot.

 

Originally Posted by beaviszach

 

Originally Posted by JLizard

the power of positive thinking ftw.

EDIT: also whoever is railing you calling for a jack should know better you have to call for the ace or the 9 possibly maybe 33% of the time. I mean wtf N00b or what.

EDIT part 2: Ahh isee its you calling for the J I'm sure your intentions were good but there best thing there is for the player with the JJ to type NH after the flop , then GG on the turn , Thats pro style and you'll suck out WAYYY more often doing that than calling out J which I'm pretty sure the poker gods consider begging and unmanly. Unless of course your a girl then It may be correct to do so.

jlizard you rape at poker and this is the best advice you can give?

Ok you said I rape at poker so I'll be serious for a sec ( althought the GG on the flop and the NH on the turn I do this seriously, im not kidding for fun tho not becuz I beleive it really helps , I think poker should be fun to play) A positive attitude is a must If you think your gonna lose you probably will . Maybe thats just the way I play If I get coolered its instantly shaken off and I expect to win ALOT of the time anyway. I used to be wayyy more negative I'm not saying your friend is being this way all the time I really don't know . And ever since I started only focusing on the positive I have made shit tons more money. So I guess I mean if your gut is telling you your gonna lose more than its telling you that you are gonna win. Change that gut or just don't listen to it. Sorry I'm kind of a monkey I hope you get what I mean.