I think I push here every time, but not positive. Any thoughts?

pokerstars Game #8792449909: Tournament #44734154, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit
- Level V (75/150) - 2007/03/07 - 22:32:10 (ET)
Table '44734154 2' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: mang14 (1045 in chips)
Seat 3: IrishLuck31 (2450 in chips)
Seat 5: betsonduces (2655 in chips)
Seat 7: dparker313 (2265 in chips)
Seat 8: BOSANAC07 (8560 in chips)
mang14: posts small blind 75
IrishLuck31: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dparker313 [Ad Kd]
betsonduces: raises 450 to 600
dparker313: raises 1665 to 2265 and is all-in

i am looking for someone to run numbers on this. 4 paid, and the stack sizes need to be taken into account. personally i push, but the utg raise comes from a TAG player, so i am looking for actual numbers. i don't think it is a definite push, i'd like to see what some other players i have to say. thanks for the input.

Nothing wrong here.

thank you guys. as to lil flu saying my posts "always are easy decisions", you'll notice that over first glance they are, but down the line winning players like jennifear take them further. that is what i am looking for. some of these decisions are not cut and dry, and i am trying to learn what is correct mathematically. thanks again. btw, lil flu i do respect your input, i just don't agree that all these posts are totally lopsided.

Maybe this is just me- but I figure betsonduces is pot committed so he is likely to call a push. So why not just call, see if you hit the flop, and if not you are still in third place and one double up from 2nd place.

Tournament Payout Distribution
<SPAN class=payoutOrdinal>1st:</SPAN><INPUT value=0.4 name=pp1> <SPAN class=payoutOrdinal>2nd:</SPAN><INPUT value=0.3 name=pp2> <SPAN class=payoutOrdinal>3rd:</SPAN><INPUT value=0.2 name=pp3> <SPAN class=payoutOrdinal>4th:</SPAN><INPUT value=0.1 name=pp4> <SPAN class=payoutOrdinal>5th:</SPAN><INPUT value=0.0 name=pp5>
Player Name
Chips
ICM Equity

<INPUT class=playerInput value="Player 1" name=playername1><INPUT class=chipsInput value=1045 name=chips1><SPAN class=icmEquity>0.1006</SPAN>
<SPAN class=extraColumn>1st: 0.062</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>2nd: 0.094</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>3rd: 0.135</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>4th: 0.207</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>5th: 0.502</SPAN>
<INPUT class=playerInput value="Player 2" name=playername2><INPUT class=chipsInput value=2450 name=chips2><SPAN class=icmEquity>0.1923</SPAN>
<SPAN class=extraColumn>1st: 0.144</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>2nd: 0.205</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>3rd: 0.241</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>4th: 0.247</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>5th: 0.162</SPAN>
<INPUT class=playerInput value="Player 3" name=playername3><INPUT class=chipsInput value=2655 name=chips3><SPAN class=icmEquity>0.2014</SPAN>
<SPAN class=extraColumn>1st: 0.156</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>2nd: 0.220</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>3rd: 0.247</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>4th: 0.235</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>5th: 0.142</SPAN>
<INPUT class=playerInput value="Player 4" name=playername4><INPUT class=chipsInput value=2265 name=chips4><SPAN class=icmEquity>0.1834</SPAN>
<SPAN class=extraColumn>1st: 0.133</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>2nd: 0.192</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>3rd: 0.234</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>4th: 0.257</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>5th: 0.183</SPAN>
<INPUT class=playerInput value="Player 5" name=playername5><INPUT class=chipsInput value=8560 name=chips5><SPAN class=icmEquity>0.3223

If you lose the allin your equity is 0. If you win you more than double up giving you an equity of:

Player Name
Chips
ICM Equity

<INPUT class=playerInput value="Player 1" name=playername1><INPUT class=chipsInput value=895 name=chips1><SPAN class=icmEquity>0.1218</SPAN>
<SPAN class=extraColumn>1st: 0.053</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>2nd: 0.083</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>3rd: 0.163</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>4th: 0.432</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>5th: 0.269</SPAN>
<INPUT class=playerInput value="Player 2" name=playername2><INPUT class=chipsInput value=2450 name=chips2><SPAN class=icmEquity>0.2160</SPAN>
<SPAN class=extraColumn>1st: 0.144</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>2nd: 0.212</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>3rd: 0.359</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>4th: 0.228</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>5th: 0.057</SPAN>
<INPUT class=playerInput value="Player 3" name=playername3><INPUT class=chipsInput value=390 name=chips3><SPAN class=icmEquity>0.0561</SPAN>
<SPAN class=extraColumn>1st: 0.023</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>2nd: 0.037</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>3rd: 0.074</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>4th: 0.209</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>5th: 0.657</SPAN>
<INPUT class=playerInput value="Player 4" name=playername4><INPUT class=chipsInput value=4745 name=chips4><SPAN class=icmEquity>0.2784</SPAN>
<SPAN class=extraColumn>1st: 0.280</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>2nd: 0.349</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>3rd: 0.260</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>4th: 0.097</SPAN><SPAN class=extraColumn>5th: 0.014</SPAN>
<INPUT class=playerInput value="Player 5" name=playername5><INPUT class=chipsInput value=8485 name=chips5><SPAN class=icmEquity>0.3278

Now you have to figure out how often you will need to win for it to be +EV</SPAN>

You have an increas in EV of .0950

0*(x-1) + .2784*x = .1834

x = 65.88%

Assuming he will call all of your pushes, you will need to win more than 66% of the time for it to be +EV

He would have to have a pretty large range for AK to be at 66% favorite.

It is barely +EV against a random hand

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 67.050% 66.22% 00.83% 1544785 19287.00 { AdKd }

Hand 1: 32.950% 32.12% 00.83% 749325 19287.00 { random }
Against any pair, any 2 broadway cards and any Ace it is -EV

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 64.993% 62.49% 02.50% 1458375 58284.00 { AdKd }

Hand 1: 35.007% 32.51% 02.50% 758646 58284.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

</SPAN>

So that begs the question:

How often will a TAG fold in this situation? Or, how often does he need to fold with his range to make it +EV?

If you put him on a range of AJo+ AJs+ and 88+ you are:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 54.813% 48.11% 06.70% 1021010 142299.50 { AdKd }

Hand 1: 45.187% 38.48% 06.70% 816724 142299.50 { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }

You will need him to fold a little more than 20% of the time.

dparker, here's my take, and it's very close to jhill's.

You push here because if he calls, its a very close call for you, but if he folds, you picked up a nice pot, and in this case, you definitely have fold equity. You are putting him to a tough decision. Even in a low-limit SNG, his call is not a given by any stretch of the imagination. He may fold here as often as 60% of the time, depending on your read.

One possible thing to look out for:

His 4x raise causes suspicion. If he had previously raised 3-3.5x with a hand like AQ or AJ or A10, I think you need to fold here, because the likelihood he is carrying TT-QQ around is too great.

With the hand in a vacuum not knowing the above:

PUSH!

Side note:

Who gives a crap if all of your decisions ARE easy? If you don't know the answer, ask the question, and I'm glad you have the balls to do so, regardless of the simplicity of the decision. Fact is, most aren't born great, we have to learn to get good at this game. I sure learned. Four and a half years ago, I was playing playchips. Let's encourage players to ask any kind of question, regardless of the difficulty level.

you pushed, he called, you bubbled?

it is for players like jennifear that i post these types of scenarios, so thank you. by the way, since joining p5's and asking "these ridiculously easy" questions, my roi has gone up a ton and i'm making a really nice profit. so i'll continue to do so, and if some think the posts are a waste of time, don't waste your time responding. :) thanks again guys, and GL

What a dumb response lol ;)

Much wuv Bombo

TY for the nice things u said :)