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turbo sng bubble play ?

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  1. ryanmack91 ryanmack91 is offline

    Fredericton
    Canada

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 3:35pm)

    i understand that this should be an easy fold but i was wondering how exactly -ev it is given icm and potential to win almost double the money that folding to second would yeild

    here is the hand and i feel he is pushing any 2 i realize that alot of people will say only call with aa kk etc but i think that it is too tight seeing how this is a 6max turbo only 2 places play and it is basically 66 and 33 % of the prizepool

    pokerstars Game #10515389643: Tournament #53268224, $36+$3 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2007/06/19 - 15:01:20 (ET)
    Table '53268224 1' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
    Seat 1: ryanmack91 (2826 in chips)
    Seat 2: markpal (1134 in chips)
    Seat 6: CHOCOTITO (5040 in chips)
    ryanmack91: posts the ante 25
    markpal: posts the ante 25
    CHOCOTITO: posts the ante 25
    CHOCOTITO: posts small blind 200
    ryanmack91: posts big blind 400
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to ryanmack91 [xx]
    markpal: folds
    CHOCOTITO: raises 4615 to 5015 and is all-in
    ryanmack91:?????????/

    later i will post what i did after some opinions thx
     
  2. d2themfi d2themfi is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 3:51pm) in reply to ryanmack91

    I dont have the capabilities to calculate this because it is a 6max game, and mu sng program only does 9max. But I would guess if he is pushing any two you can call here with at least QQ+. Im not positive about that but I think that is actually a little conservative. If the blinds were smaller it might be only kk+ but I would guess qq+. And absolutely not AK!!! Biggest mistake I see people make is calling with AK here
     
  3. TheWacoKidd TheWacoKidd is offline haters gonna hate

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 4:02pm) in reply to d2themfi

    I call AK AQ 99^, without running any math
     1
  4. ill flu ill flu is online now

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 4:04pm) in reply to TheWacoKidd

    I like the 99+ AK/AQ is prob v close
  5. d2themfi d2themfi is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 4:05pm) in reply to TheWacoKidd

    I would be literally shocked if AQ is a call here. It is on the bubble, you need a huge edge here to call. I would also be really surprised if AK was a call, and moderately surprised if 99 and tt were calls here
     
  6. pariah pariah is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 4:12pm) in reply to ryanmack91

    99+ if he's pushing 100% of hands
    TT+ if he's pushing 75%
    JJ+ if he's pushing 65%
    QQ+ if he's pushing 45%
    KK+ if he's only pushing top 20%

    AK & AQ are both folds.
  7. TheWacoKidd TheWacoKidd is offline haters gonna hate

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 4:12pm) in reply to d2themfi

    and you also have a -$17 avg profit per sng while mine is +$38 (and that is with a large % of mine being friendly micros with OTers)
     1
  8. d2themfi d2themfi is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 4:16pm) in reply to TheWacoKidd

    So i guess i cant be right. Also check my Full Tilt Stats b4 u judge waco.

    I hit a terrible run of cards on stars which is why my sample size is really small there and my roi is terrible.

    You can also check my mtt results on stars or Full tilt to see Im a winning polayer, or I can send you my Pokert racker stats for cash games to alos show you Im a winning player.

    I really dont appreciate you attacking me just cause I disagree with you.

    i thought this was poker "discussion", not Poker "dont disagree with me or Ill attack you"
     
  9. d2themfi d2themfi is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 4:26pm) in reply to pariah

    So wait I guess I was completely wrong when i said AK and Aq here are folds..... O wait a second, hmmm
     
  10. TheWacoKidd TheWacoKidd is offline haters gonna hate

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 4:31pm) in reply to d2themfi

    was not attacking you at all, just stating some facts... I play to win I dont fear the bubble... I may fold AQ there tho but I doubt it

    PS - I am really goot at sngs
     1
  11. warden warden is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 4:34pm) in reply to d2themfi

    i'd like to see the calculation since sng power tools doesnt have the 6-max structure on stars listed
     2
  12. pariah pariah is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 4:39pm) in reply to warden

    Yah I'm off, I'm going to have to re-do this. I calculated this using partypoker's 6-max structure which also only pays 2 but I realized PP doesn't use antes at 200/400 so that'll change it a bit. As posted, it should be fairly close though.
  13. warden warden is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 4:42pm) in reply to pariah

    also realize that party pays 40% to 2nd and 60% to 1st, while stars is 35% and 65%

    that would increase the calling range of ryanmack obv
     2
  14. d2themfi d2themfi is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 4:43pm) in reply to TheWacoKidd

    well maybe get all the facts before you state them next time:)

    Also, the "I play to win" comment is really a terrible strategy in sng's expectation wise. I mean I checked ur stats and you are a winning player at sngs but ur sample size is small(just like both of mine), so making calls like these might be hurting you long term and you just haven't felt it expectation wise yet. Also maybe its already hurting you in expectation, but because other aspects of ur SNG game are so good, u are still a winning player.

    Just some thoughts

    Also maybe im completely wrong and this is a call
     
  15. pariah pariah is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 4:46pm) in reply to warden

    Try running it in SNG Wizard. I just got the trial and they have an option for stars 6-max (pay 2: 65/35) but I'm doing something wrong because it says if SB is shoving 100% I can call with 39.7% of hands which includes monsters like K4o & K2s. So I dunno what I'm doing wrong.
  16. Prfsr_Cain Prfsr_Cain is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 5:47pm) in reply to TheWacoKidd

    I think we're too math dependent. Nothing wrong with running the numbers, but if you solely depend on them, then you're not playing poker.

    "It takes a good player to use ICM, and a great player to throw it out." Or whatever.

    I think Waco's range is too loose, but the KK+ is too tight. I say TT+ and AK is good. If you win this, you are in gr8 shape to take over the table. ICM doesn't factor skill. Even if you don't win, your opponents will now fear you on the bubble in upcoming SNGs. Even at the $3 level that I play at, players remember shit like that.

    But I'm just a micro donk. What do I know?

    edit: misread the stacks. So neglect my previous 1st place guarantee
  17. Ariganello Ariganello is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 5:52pm) in reply to TheWacoKidd

    I would have to semi agree with waco. I rather call with a pair than AK AQ. lets say he is shoving everyhand knowing you cant call. If you call with AQ and up again 84 your not that far ahead. If you make this same call with 99 TT your are a huge fav. I think it depends on how aggressive he is. I fold AQ but call with 99^
  18. d2themfi d2themfi is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 5:53pm) in reply to Prfsr_Cain

    First of all if you win this hand, ur not even in the money yet, and yet you said it guarantees you 1st place, Im sorry but ur edge in poker with shallow stacks is not that big, so it def does not guarantee you 1st. Also, this is really a just a matter of establishing the shovers range and mathematically finding out what the correct calling range is. So the "poker" part of it is finding the players range, the rest is just math. Turbo Sngs are more of a mathematical game then they are "poker".
     
  19. Prfsr_Cain Prfsr_Cain is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 6:04pm) in reply to d2themfi

    I agree that turbos have a lot of math, but it's not completely 100% mathematical. If you win, you now have a psychological edge, even though the chips are even. I'm sorry, but Waco w/chips > you w/the same amount of chips. That's where the "it's not all about math" comes into play. A short stack is a short stack no matter who you are. But a medium/big stack.......skill does come into play. Sometimes risks need to be taken.
  20. warden warden is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 6:07pm) in reply to ryanmack91

    AQo+ 99+ is definitely a call if he's shoving ATC and here's why.

    if you fold, you're left with 2401. the short stack will have 1109 and the big stack will have 5490. at that point, the equity of your stack is $71.84.

    if you call w/ AQo+ and 99+, you win 71.81% of the time, tie 0.58% of the time, and lose the rest.

    The times where you call and win, your stack becomes 5677. The short stack still has 1109 and the former big stack has 2214. If this happens, the equity of your stack is $110.82.

    The times you call and chop, your stack becomes 2839, the short stack still has 1109, and the big stack has 5052. If this happens, the equity of your stack is $78.16.

    So your overall equity when you call is 0.7181 * $110.82 + 0.0058 * $78.16. That's $79.58 + $0.45, which is $80.03. That's an edge of $8.19, so you have to call.

    edit: i did fail to take into account that while the call may be profitable w/ this range, it might be MORE profitable if it were tighter. in this particular case, that means that you prob should fold AQo. That said, if you call w/ Waco's range, it's still profitable, it would just be more so if you folded AQo.

    ugh
     2
  21. warden warden is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 6:18pm) in reply to warden

    bambam edit so its' gone
     2
  22. pariah pariah is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 6:33pm) in reply to warden

    If we need 65%, isn't it more like 77+,AQs+,AK? AQo & AJs are really borderline.
  23. warden warden is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 6:34pm) in reply to pariah

    lool nvm i see the error of my ways
     2
  24. amlove amlove is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 7:12pm) in reply to warden

    I think we need to win the hand aprox 70% of the time to be profitable, which means 99+ is a call if hes shoving any 2 cards and AKs is still a fold if he is shoving any 2
  25. warden warden is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 7:14pm) in reply to amlove

    but we don't, and i showed the math on why we don't.
     2
  26. jalman1 jalman1 is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 7:16pm) in reply to warden

    My head hurts
    107 3
  27. amlove amlove is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 7:25pm) in reply to jalman1

    oops, your right, I took the equity of the stacks before the hand instead of after he steals so thats why I got 70%.
  28. TheWacoKidd TheWacoKidd is offline haters gonna hate

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 7:33pm) in reply to amlove

    i pwn sgns w/o using math... see my original response for proper calling range :)

    <3 dpottz
     1
  29. d2themfi d2themfi is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 8:28pm) in reply to Prfsr_Cain

    what ur not considering is effective stack sizes. If you have 8k in chips but the others have 4k in chips, then you are all playing with 4k in chips
     
  30. d2themfi d2themfi is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2007 (6/19/2007 8:31pm) in reply to warden

    I stand corrected
     
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