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(This post is a continuation of a couple hand histories from a stars Deepstack tourney that I posted in the hand advice section. You can view the HH's here: http://www.pocketfives.com/C1E172D2-...34EAEE50C.aspx
One aspect of tournament play that I've been struggling with is play on later streets with moderate hands. While flopped sets, straights, and flushes are often "armor-piercing bullets" when facing typical high cards/pocket pair opponents, I find myself getting into trouble with these hands more and more against loose and tricky players.
One scenario that I was faced with twice last night was play on 3rd, 4th, and 5th street with scary turn and river cards. In this example, I'll show a situation that I was faced with on a flopped straight and pose a couple questions on each street of the hand.
Hand 1
Level 5 in the tourney, blinds are at 75/150. I'm on the button with over 16K in chips, and I pick up:
7
5
I've been playing rather tight, only showing down two premium hands at this table that boosted my chip stack dramatically in level 4. I've limped a couple times with traffic in LP, but folded out after missing the flop.
UTG+1 limps, followed by LP1. I limp into the pot, SB folds and BB checks.
THE FLOP
The flop comes:
8
9
6
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, and LP1 bets out 450.
Problem 1: What is your action?
When I saw this board, I thought it was an absolutely awesome flop. I caught the flop I wanted, with the bonus of an open-ended draw to the nuts.
The bet from LP1 was questionable. He was a fairly TAG player, who'd shown some guts by braving out a few tough pots and building a fairly nice stack. Unfortunately, he suffered a couple bad beats during the last round and lost about 4000 chips to a couple suckouts. I had the feeling he was a little steamed, as he was getting a bit more active pre-flop, seeing a couple cheap flops and raising more in position.
The first thought I had when he bet out was maybe A9/A8/A6. I acted on this gut and, not wanting to scare off action, I smooth called, hoping for action behind me so I could get all my chips in.
This was my first analytical mistake. After taking another look, I starting thinking about a few things:
a) With an EP limp, he's probably not going to limp pre-flop with a weak ace in LP. I've seen him become more aggressive lately, and he probably would've made a move at the pot pre-flop with an un-connected ace if he was going to play it.
b) So if he's not playing a weak ace, then what is he playing? Well, a hand that he certainly would limp with pre-flop after an EP limp would be suited connectors, or a low pocket pair, not risking a re-raise from an EP limper if he raised pre-flop.
c) By just calling the bet, I've now priced in one of the two players behind me if they're on a draw higher than mine! Eventhough I know that 2 of the remaining 9 clubs give me the nuts, I'm leaving myself vulnerable to a high-club on the turn, as well as anyone with a QT or JT (drawing to 8 outs), or even QJ, T9, T8, or T6, and feel their overcards or pair + gut shot is good enough to continue.
d) Possibly the worse case scenario, I could still be facing T7 (in which case, I'm surely going broke to a re-raise.)
So what would you do here? And why?
THE TURN
After smooth-calling, the BB and UTG+1 both fold. I am now in position with one opponent, and the turn comes:
5
LP1 acts first and makes it 1350 to go into a 1575 chip pot.
Problem 2: What is your action?
This was a pretty crappy card for me. I was one card closer to eliminating a flush draw, but a hand like 7x now has me tied, and it's probably going to cost me all my chips on the river to see this hand out if he's hit anything. Again, if he's holding T7, I'm even more screwed, and a J7 now gets even more life.
I decided to min-raise to eliminate the possibility of a pure bluff. I raised to 2700, hoping he'd drop his hand. Unfortunately, he called, and I knew he was made (or just maniacal) heading to the river.
One thing I didn't consider, though, is that he may be holding 2 pair or a set! With 4 to a straight on the board, he certainly didn't feel completely comfortable. My min-raise, while it seemed good to me, is surely small enough for him to call if he's not 100% sure that I've made my straight. If he's still ahead, he's building the pot, and if he's behind, it's only costing him another 1350 of his remaining 7000+ chips to see a river with 14 possible outs if he's set (9 possible board pairs, 3 remaining 7's, and 1 card to 4-of-a-kind), and possibly even 7 possible outs if he's got 2-pair (4 cards to a full house and 3 remaining 7's).
So what do you do here? And Why?
THE RIVER
With 6975 in the pot, the river comes:
5
Acting first, LP1 bets 1650 (of his remaining 5700+ chips) into a 6975 pot.
Problem 3 - What is your action?
After playing this hand with a certain confidence, now I'm a bit rattled. That old T.J. Cloutier rule about betting a straight into a paired board popped in my head, and I was almost sure I was beat. Still there was the possibility that he only had a ragged 7 or ragged pair, and I called.
What is your action here? And Why?
SHOWDOWN
Below in white are the results of the LP1's hand.
LP1: shows [6d 6s] (a full house, Sixes full of Fives)
CONCLUSION
After going over this hand, I think I've hit a few areas where I made a questionable play by not considering all of the factors involved. However, I'm still not too sure on which play(s) would be "correct" based on a better assessment:
- What is my action if I think my opponent has a set on the flop? the turn?
- How do I play the hand if I put my opponent on a higher draw?
- Is there any way, other than pushing or calling, to play this hand on the turn?
- Is there anything I'm not considering that lets me lay this down on the river? (I know this one is iffy, not a whole lot to do here).
One thing that I did realize, however, is that I actually saved myself about 3,000 chips by not pushing into this pot on the flop, but probably could've bought it with a push on the turn. It's hard to say though, because of recent history on LP1. I surely don't think he's laying down a set on the flop, but he may have enough steam to call me down for all his chips on the turn if he thinks I'm making a move.
As always, comments and criticism is appreciated.
Thanks,
E_E -
All these answers written before looking at the answer. I will write a bried analysis at the end when I look at the results.
Problen 1
On the flop, I would raise to price out the flush draws. Remember, you have a straight flush draw, and it's only that: a draw. However, you already have a mad hand in a straight. You must protect this from flush draws. In a multi-way pot that you have, someone is likely to have a flush draw.
Problem 2
I would raise 3x what he bet. The turn was a crappy card for you, but it isn't as horrible as you think. Yes, if did he had a seven, you were now tied, but that card does not put you behind (unless he was calling with a pure gutshot, which is not likely). Furthermore, if he already had you beat, you havd two sure outs onthe river, and three other outs which will split you the pot if he had 10-7.
Problem 3
That bet screams weak. It was very small in relation to the pot. You hadn't really screamed strengh in this hand. If you had, he might have throw a low bet to lure you to reraise. Either he has a moderate hand, or he has a boat and just wants o get pair off in some way. Either way, in my mind it is a must call, even, if you are most likely beat.
Most of his bets make sense. Limping in with 66 is fine. He bet 450 into a 600 pot to chase out flush and straight draws. I don't like his bet on the turn. If someone was drawing to a straight, they just completed it. Betting out that strong is asking for trouble. Note that if you raised big, he probably would have folded. When you minraised, he probably knew for a fact that you hit your straight (you had it the whole time, but he didn't know that), but he had the implied odds to call and hope the board paired. I'm too lazy to do the math right now, but he might have had the straight pot odds to call and hope the board paired. Three fives, three eights, three nines, and a 6, for 10 outs. Ok, so I guess he didn't have straight pot odds, but he certainly had implied odds.
His bet on the river was one of two things, which we don' know without talking to him. He figured either; A) you would raise your straight into that weak bet, so he could reraise you, or B) I big bet might convince you that he had a boat and cause you to fold, so he bet smaller just to get paid off in some way.
You made one fundamental error in your analysis. You say you saved 3000 chips by not raising the flop. Well, in this one instance, yes. But what about those times that you are allowing flush draws to stay in? Overall, not raising that flop is -EV.
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