[BscHons]

dragken = 31/14 54hs AGG FREQ. 33% 43hs - so opening/calling a fairly wide ranges pre, but not your average 30/9 station.

This post examines both turn and river play. Turn play is disclosed, river play is not.

I donk the flop to build a pot on a dry board. I call off the guy with 7bbs if he shoves. Dragken limped pre, so I think his range when he raises is rarely a set (I feel like he is raising 66/88s), sometimes a two pair, top pair weak kicker, and flush draws with overs and re-draws (JTs, JQs). Not too many FDs he would raise here, we have the nut draw and he would likely raise KQs pre.

If we look at his bet sizing, it's quite a small raise - he really doesn't want me to fold - which makes me think more that he actually has a big hand here, though I don't if he would play FDs and TP differently. My guess is that he would raise them bigger.

When we hit on the turn, I checked back not to scare off his weaker holdings and to induce some action from him. Thinking about it, betting here is also ok, he'll raise worse if he hit, and he might come along with with 2nd pair. Thoughts here?

Dragken then checks, which either means he hit and doesn't want to scare me off, or he's now put off betting himself. My guess is that if he had hit on the turn, he's would be putting in some kind of value bet. Thoughts on turn play?

The river pairs the board.

I feel like check/raising is turning our hand into a bluff, as given the villains line, I don't expect us to get called by worse too often.
I don't mind check/calling - sometimes he will just fold to a river lead, and if we check, maybe he thinks J8 is good or turns his hand into a bluff.
IF we do lead and get shoved over, can we fold?


pokerstars Hand #82616715396: Tournament #577808342, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (50/100) - 2012/06/29 16:12:25 WET [2012/06/29 11:12:25 ET]
Table '577808342 29' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: dragken (6076 in chips)
Seat 2: vissass (683 in chips)
Seat 3: pele x8 (440 in chips)
Seat 4: karkos 0 (8362 in chips)
Seat 5: Hankmuth (4070 in chips)
Seat 6: Mércurial (7132 in chips)
Seat 7: 8VPV8 (3270 in chips)
Seat 8: sgt-dude75 (5058 in chips)
Seat 9: LII72 (2889 in chips)
dragken: posts the ante 10
vissass: posts the ante 10
pele x8: posts the ante 10
karkos 0: posts the ante 10
Hankmuth: posts the ante 10
Mércurial: posts the ante 10
8VPV8: posts the ante 10
sgt-dude75: posts the ante 10
LII72: posts the ante 10
Hankmuth: posts small blind 50
Mércurial: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mércurial [9h Ah]
8VPV8: folds
sgt-dude75: folds
LII72: folds
dragken: calls 100
vissass: calls 100
pele x8: folds
karkos 0: folds
Hankmuth: calls 50
Mércurial: checks
*** FLOP *** [2h 6h 8d]
Hankmuth: checks
Mércurial: bets 245
dragken: raises 355 to 600
vissass: calls 573 and is all-in
Hankmuth: folds
Mércurial: calls 355
*** TURN *** [2h 6h 8d] [Th]
Mércurial: checks
dragken: checks
*** RIVER *** [2h 6h 8d Th] [6d]
Mércurial...

[bazingaking]

Raise and call the shove. I don't think we're beat that often, this would be a major laydown to fold the nut flush. He could have limped with a big pair hoping for a raise pre-flop, and now just has AA or KK etc. and has two pair, which we beat. He could have KhQh, second nut flush, which we beat. He could have 8A etc. He could have 79 for a straight, which we beat. He could have 78 or 67 with pair and straight draw on the flop, and now only has trips or two pair, all of which we beat.

As shown, he can shove over our raise with all manners of hands, especially in a 5$ tourney, not just 66 or 88 or 22 or TT. Hands like 68 or T6 are possible, but unlikely hands to limp in with. I mean seriously, you are giving the guy way too much credit for having a hand. I would raise and be happy to call a shove because I think that for the majority of the time we are ahead. Edited By: bazingaking Jun 30th, 2012 at 10:46 AM
Reason: typo

[BscHons]

 

Originally Posted by bazingaking

Raise and call the shove. I don't think we're beat that often, this would be a major laydown to fold the nut flush. He could have limped with a big pair hoping for a raise pre-flop, and now just has AA or KK etc. and has two pair, which we beat. He could have KhQh, second nut flush, which we beat. He could have 8A etc. He could have 79 for a straight, which we beat. He could have 78 or 67 with pair and straight draw on the flop, and now only has trips or two pair, all of which we beat.

As shown, he can shove over our raise with all manners of hands, especially in a 5$ tourney, not just 66 or 88 or 22 or TT. Hands like 68 or T6 are possible, but unlikely hands to limp in with. I mean seriously, you are giving the guy way too much credit for having a hand. I would raise and be happy to call a shove because I think that for the majority of the time we are ahead.

Sure - what I didn't mention above is that this is a fishy player in a $5 tourney, and sometimes they just do ridonkulous things. Saying that, if he had any of the hands you mention above, I don't feel he would play them as you describe.

79 is betting the turn so often with 3 hearts down. Sometimes he checks back his turned flush, and he's not going to stack off with 78, A8. Also, I don't feel this player is ever limping AA/KK/TT from LP. Sometimes I see a 30/3 do this from EP to induce some action, or if they simply never raise pre anyway, but he's not that type of player. I suppose a very small % he does something stupid with a 67. Edited By: BscHons Jun 30th, 2012 at 11:05 AM

[BscHons]

I made an error in my earlier post - he can't limp JTs pre and have a flush, the Th is on the board. Thinking then, what FDs does he potentially limp with pre and raise with on the flop...

I think he's raising the following pre QJs/KTs/KJs, so rule them out of his flop raising range.

I think he could limp the following pre, K8s/K5s/K7s/78s/45s, and raise them on the flop.

[bazingaking]

He's limping from middle position btw. Anyhow, there are loads of possibilities of his pre-flop limping range with flush draws, not just what you stated, I can't really be bothered to outline them all, but: A2,A3,A4,A5 etc. (you see players fall in love with aces all the time), gapped suited connectors, J9, 79 etc. I mean there's really quite a few.

As for his line on the flop, I think he can easily, bearing in mind 5$ fish, raise with loads of flush draws which he thinks are good, straight draws etc, building a pot. He would also raise with his AA or KK type of hands or 8A etc. to try and make flush draws pay. I know the sizing is very small, but many players just have a leak in the fact that they don't size their re-raises well to make draws not have the right odds to call.

Checking the turn could be a slowplay if he hits the flush, as some players oddly decide when they hit the hand they have to check for 'deception' or he could be scared of the flush draws with his 8A or KK hands.

Anyhow my opinion is that your are over thinking the problem to try and make a hero fold, but most of the time betting the river will get you value from worse hands. It is really steep to fold to a shove, because then you are putting his shoving range of only: 22,66,88,TT or 68, T6, 62. Out of that range, 66-TT would probably have raised pre-flop - they're not the big hands you limp hoping for someone to raise your limp (ie. AA, KK). And 62, T6 are very weak hands to even open limp with. I mean that kind of means you are saying that he either has 22 or 68 which is way too tight a range. Even if in this case he did actually have the nuts, I think that most of the time you should think you are ahead and be playing for value.

I see the arguments for the check-call, but personally I think you will just lose value when he checks behind hands which would have made a crying call to your raise. Edited By: bazingaking Jun 30th, 2012 at 01:18 PM

[BscHons]

 

Originally Posted by bazingaking

He's limping from middle position btw. Anyhow, there are loads of possibilities of his pre-flop limping range with flush draws, not just what you stated, I can't really be bothered to outline them all, but: A2,A3,A4,A5 etc. (you see players fall in love with aces all the time), gapped suited connectors, J9, 79 etc. I mean there's really quite a few.

As for his line on the flop, I think he can easily, bearing in mind 5$ fish, raise with loads of flush draws which he thinks are good, straight draws etc, building a pot. He would also raise with his AA or KK type of hands or 8A etc. to try and make flush draws pay. I know the sizing is very small, but many players just have a leak in the fact that they don't size their re-raises well to make draws not have the right odds to call.

Checking the turn could be a slowplay if he hits the flush, as some players oddly decide when they hit the hand they have to check for 'deception' or he could be scared of the flush draws with his 8A or KK hands.

Anyhow my opinion is that your are over thinking the problem to try and make a hero fold, but most of the time betting the river will get you value from worse hands. It is really steep to fold to a shove, because then you are putting his shoving range of only: 22,66,88,TT or 68, T6, 62. Out of that range, 66-TT would probably have raised pre-flop - they're not the big hands you limp hoping for someone to raise your limp (ie. AA, KK). And 62, T6 are very weak hands to even open limp with. I mean that kind of means you are saying that he either has 22 or 68 which is way too tight a range. Even if in this case he did actually have the nuts, I think that most of the time you should think you are ahead and be playing for value.

I see the arguments for the check-call, but personally I think you will just lose value when he checks behind hands which would have made a crying call to your raise.

You're right he is in MP. Sure he can limp all the hands you mention, but he's not raising any Ax 9x FDs on the flop (we have A9s). I agree that he could well raise weaker draws than us on the flop, and true I did over think the relevance of his small raise on the flop. The fact is we just can't know what this means, so I'm with you there.

Again, as I mentioned he could check back when he hits on the turn, though not really his 79o (less likely for two reasons, we have a 9, and I think he is always betting his straight on this turn)

I went back and looked at the villains play. He opened 87s from EP pre-ante, so he's for sure opening decent connectors in LP. He also flatted to an EP open pre with KK ,then shoved over a 3bet. I guess this makes it a little more likely that he also limps with these hands pre tp induce, so I won't rule this out.

To be honest, there's some hindsight bias in my first post. I actually x/r the river, and he turned up with 22s. I wondered afterwards whether I could get away from my hand in this spot, so inevitably I was looking for signs of strength when I reviewed the hand. I always get result orientated in big pots!

Thinking about it, one nice line on the river is to lead small in the hope that he pounces on our weakness or calls us with something weak that he would have otherwise folded to a big lead. Obv. if he has a flush/FH the money goes in anyway, so my thinking he is to try to get maximum value from his weak holdings and bluffs, so actually x/r is also a reasonable option. I take back what I said earlier - he can call with worse when we x/r.

When we get it in on the river, I feel like his range is made up of weaker flushes, full houses, and a selection of completely random hands that are very hard to predict (67/AA/KK/T8). Like you say, these $5 fish do stuff that we can never give them credit for, and this should be a consideration.

Thanks for your input - I will try an be more objective and in future! Edited By: BscHons Jun 30th, 2012 at 01:44 PM

[bazingaking]

Np, I think you just hit the top part of his range there, as I said in earlier post the top part of his range (22 or 68) won't happen that frequently. Cooler, but better luck next time.

[IMLegend Is Bighaley21, Bighaley21 account is reactivated]

NEVER checking this river. Youre spewing so much value if you do. Bet 1100-1300 and call a shove against this type of player. If youre beat then thats a cooler. Edited By: IMLegend Jun 30th, 2012 at 05:58 PM

[Bball23]

I'd probably bet/fold to be honest. Just don't see any hands he checks the turn and shoves the river with that you beat. With a straight I think he may check the turn but doubt he is ever shoving river.

[elimherr]

bet/fold river hes rarely if ever re-raising with worse.

then again its a $5 timbey so you never know but i would bet / decide on river player dependent if its a winning reg bet/fold if its some complete dolt probably not folding. Edited By: elimherr Jun 30th, 2012 at 07:25 PM

[EyeKnows]

 

Originally Posted by elimherr

bet/fold river hes rarely if ever re-raising with worse.

this is not correct.

throwing away value not betting the river. bet/call, move on.