Haven't been on here forever. This is one of the most unique MTT spots I just got in, so weird wanna know the math and what you think. I know in STT there are correct spots to fold AA, but is this another spot where you fold a monster.

$5/2R1A Top 135 money. Bubble play hand-for-hand. When hand started literally one more elimination till the money. I was like bottom 3 in chips before hand started. Midway in my hand someone bust at another table. Still reads 136 in lobby with smallest stack being 0. So if I fold I cash for sure. My immediate right opens 2.5x vs my less than 5x so obv I'm all in if I choose. I don't know if I lose this hand if I finish 136 or not because of starting chips.

So this is somewhat of a technicality question as well as pure math equity question. Any ICM-ers out there? Don't ask how I got that low in chips, because its not pretty and its not what I am wondering.

pokerstars Game #47593061653: Tournament #323010977, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XX (700/1400) - 2010/08/02 0:07:27 ET
Table '323010977 23' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: buitbeat (14897 in chips)
Seat 2: chawins (13661 in chips)
Seat 3: Croustille (48016 in chips)
Seat 4: MJstud (17300 in chips)
Seat 5: pitbulz (25463 in chips)
Seat 6: meDiOCREiAM (6784 in chips)
Seat 7: fatnines (87284 in chips)
Seat 8: bubbleoutcas (133675 in chips)
Seat 9: JoshuaVok3 (23689 in chips)
buitbeat: posts the ante 175
chawins: posts the ante 175
Croustille: posts the ante 175
MJstud: posts the ante 175
pitbulz: posts the ante 175
meDiOCREiAM: posts the ante 175
fatnines: posts the ante 175
bubbleoutcas: posts the ante 175
JoshuaVok3: posts the ante 175
bubbleoutcas: posts small blind 700
JoshuaVok3: posts big blind 1400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to meDiOCREiAM [Kh Ac]
buitbeat: folds
chawins: folds
Croustille: folds
MJstud: folds
pitbulz: raises 2100 to 3500
meDiOCREiAM said, "i really dont know what to do"
.........................

Thanks

is this real?

[ ] Unique
[ ] Really
[ ] Weird
[x] situation

If you're considering a fold to minimum cash rather than taking a great spot to more than double up and actually have a chance at winning more money, you should probably quit poker.... or search for my screen names and come play.

The only reason it's a unique situation is that you are scared money. If you're rolled properly for the tournament you're in, you should windmill-slam snap high five your monitor and ship it in. If you're afraid that you might bubble even though it's a tremendously +ev spot, you should probably step down in lower buyins until you aren't afraid to make the right decision and would rather fold to profit like 3 dollars instead of playing, correctly, to win.

Never. Ever. Fold.

 

Originally Posted by zander

If you're considering a fold to minimum cash rather than taking a great spot to more than double up and actually have a chance at winning more money, you should probably quit poker.... or search for my screen names and come play.

The only reason it's a unique situation is that you are scared money. If you're rolled properly for the tournament you're in, you should windmill-slam snap high five your monitor and ship it in. If you're afraid that you might bubble even though it's a tremendously +ev spot, you should probably step down in lower buyins until you aren't afraid to make the right decision and would rather fold to profit like 3 dollars instead of playing, correctly, to win.

Never. Ever. Fold.

+1 million ... you are playing for first place correct? who gives a shit on the mincash you fold this on the reg that's the best ur gonna hope for is the mincash epidemic

OMG obv its never a fold! +1 million here too. I think rivverkiller is the only one who sees what I mean, by playing with the idea possibly pure math be closer than snap calling. Its not a question of correct play, bankroll management, tourney strategy, or scared money cuz everyone should know that.

Folding is wrong, play with good bankroll, always go for top spots since its weighted and win not min cash, no scared money if good bankroll.

Just wondering equity and what does software do there for pure curiosity, because its really never application. Rereading my original post it sounds really retarded I see that now.

The only reason AA can be a fold in a satellite is because of the payment structure, i.e. there is only =1st or nothing. I highly doubt whether ICM would make this a fold, and even it did, you still shouldnt.

A mincash is worth $23.58 and you have ~2/3rds of a starting stack (we'll call a starting stack 10k if you got in for $20.50).

It's way closer than everyone is making it out to be. Let's put it this way -- if you had 4,000 chips I'm positive it's a fold. You bust 35-40% of the time here. Cashing becomes much more important as your stack gets shorter.

If you are never factoring in the value of a mincash, you are bleeding money. I make folds every week when close to the $ that are influenced by the value of a mincash.

yah it is interesting but you shouldn't be playing to min-cash a double up and a blind steal later and you got a workable stack again.
if you had like 1 bb or less I think people would be saying differently.

^^^

yeah idk sure he's not a lock if he doubles but honestly when are you ever a lock when you get to the final 100 or so people.
just play your game best you can and hope you get there.