Villain is a random (hasn't gotta way out of line, but hasn't been super nitty either).
Do you like snap-flatting the riv or going for a small value raise (my line has looked weak up to the river, draws on flop and turn bricked out, etc)? Or am I just going to be value-towning myself too often to make r/f'ing better than flatting?
Full Tilt Poker Game #13441947045: The Fifty-Fifty (98235274), Table 27 - 1200/2400 Ante 300 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:04:19 ET - 2009/07/17
Seat 1: JMaster130 (40,040)
Seat 2: theshanetrain (68,347)
Seat 3: rkellyisback (69,346)
Seat 4: kalterrell (68,923)
Seat 5: ONE T1ME DEALER (30,280)
Seat 6: cren62 (84,413)
Seat 7: GJS16 (19,155)
Seat 8: TIMETOSHINE33 (71,578)
Seat 9: davwsop07 (87,069)
JMaster130 antes 300
theshanetrain antes 300
rkellyisback antes 300
kalterrell antes 300
ONE T1ME DEALER antes 300
cren62 antes 300
GJS16 antes 300
TIMETOSHINE33 antes 300
davwsop07 antes 300
GJS16 posts the small blind of 1,200
TIMETOSHINE33 posts the big blind of 2,400
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to theshanetrain [Qs 9s]
theshanetrain has 15 seconds left to act
theshanetrain raises to 5,399
ONE T1ME DEALER folds
TIMETOSHINE33 calls 2,999
*** FLOP *** [Jc 3s 9d]
*** TURN *** [Jc 3s 9d] [6s]
TIMETOSHINE33 bets 4,800
theshanetrain calls 4,800
*** RIVER *** [Jc 3s 9d 6s] [Jd]
TIMETOSHINE33 bets 7,200
What do you think you'll get called by that you beat if you raise?
I flat here.
just flat this here, maybe min raise if you had A9 but still like others said what do u expect him to call you with that your beating?
Did he show up with lik A6 or 88 here?
I'm not saying raising the riv is std or anything close to that. It's really thin, and I usually just happily snap off his river bet assuming I'm usually good. But I think a decent case can be made for raising...
Like I said, I think my line until the riv should look weak and/or shouldn't make much sense to a lot of randoms imo. The turn brings hella draws (combined with any draw I may have had on the flop that I decided to check behind with) and I just flat his small-ish bet. The river obv doesn't complete anything, and he bets small again (like 1/3 pot), which could be a block bet (with a better or worse hand than mine), a v-bet, or air. To me it looked like he liked the turn and was throwing out a blocker, and then wasn't sure about the river so he threw out another. That said, a lot of weak players implement some weird/poor bet sizes with their entire range (anything from air to the nuts), so that doesn't really help my case for raising the river.
As I said before, value-owning myself is a real possibility, but his line looks like either a weak made hand or total air the vast majority of the time. If he has air then whatever, he's not calling my raise so it's 99% irrelevant (the other 1% is when he spazzes out with a worse hand/air). And if he 3-bets the riv I obv fold.
What can he call me with that I beat? That obv depends on how stationy the guy is (which I wasn't too sure about at the time, so it'd obv help my case for raising the riv more if I knew he'd spew hard with all kinds of crap). It also depends on his image of me (didn't mention this in OP, and def should have, but I had been pretty active at this table). He may call w/ connectors/suited connectors that he decided to defend with (i.e. T9, 98s, 97s), he also may call with pocket pairs worse under my 9. But again, it doesn't matter if he folds worse... it's the times he calls with worse (even if it's only 25% of the time, 10% of the time, whatever) that make a small river raise profitable. Note: I also think villain will fold better hands than mine some % of the time as well, which is obv fine by me, though not the real reason for raising.
I don't think he has Jx or some weirdly played overpair to the jack, so I'm most afraid of better 9s and TT. Compare that range to the range of hands that I beat that he might call with, and I think I'm ahead more often than not (not wayyyy more often obv, but that's why it's a thin raise).
Btw, I ended up raising like 2.3x his river bet and he folded after a couple seconds.
the value is raaaaazor thin if that. I don't see him calling with much here that you don't lose to, and the fact he snap folded to a min raise is proof of that
it's really really really really really tough for anyone to say how good of a raise this is without knowing the table dynamics or read on the villain. on the surface it looks like a really bad raise, but a lot of times when you raise super small on the river bad players will just snap you off with whatever they bet with, and a ton of the time your 2nd pair will be good here.
with that being said...i originally thought the raise was bad...then thought it raped...now i can't really decide. i would def only make this raise against bad players tho
insta flat, i would go so far as to say raising would be pretty bad here without a real feel for the opponent.
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