<pre><tt><tt>PokerStars Game #13268809771: Tournament #67323357, $25+$2 Hold'em No Limit -
Level X (400/800) - 2007/11/16 - 00:26:47 (ET)
Table '67323357 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: PythalesLFB (1867 in chips)
Seat 3: NutPopper (7665 in chips)
Seat 6: Chrono526 (3968 in chips)
PythalesLFB: posts the ante 50
NutPopper: posts the ante 50
Chrono526: posts the ante 50
Chrono526: posts small blind 400
PythalesLFB: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Chrono526 [9d Ac]
NutPopper: raises 6400 to 7200
----------------------------------------------------

this guy is a very good thinking player, so I know that he is going to be
pushing ATC in this spot. Knowing that do I make the call despite the BB being
very short. I know he has less than 3 BBs but, it's not as if he's all-in in the
BB or anything. If I call I'm about 60% against two random cards. Worth the risk
at this point. Tell me what you think.
</tt></tt></pre>

i fold

Call hands: 44+,A4o+,A2s+,K9o+,K6s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs (26.4%) if hes shoving any 2

There's nothing "very tough" about this hand at all. I hope you made the correct decision and called. At first glance I figured you must be four-handed because you were pondering what to do with A9 here. Then I thought, oh it must be a 6-man SNG where only the top two spots pay. Then I realized I was wrong on both counts. Now I know why my ROI is so high. There must be a few players out there who fold A9 to me in this spot. So I take my advice back. Go ahead and fold. By folding, you give yourself an excellent chance to finish second.

FWIW, I call his push with A9 here even if there were still four players left. Then I put him in the same predicament the very next hand. It's always fun to see how a bully reacts to taking a punch or two.

Are you serious? How does he have a positive ROI if he would make a decision like that? Shoving small cards into someone who is calling no matter what is pretty serious spew.

<TABLE class=sortTable id=t1 borderColor=black border=1><THEAD> <TR class=sortTable><TH class=sortTableasc>Username</TH><TH class=sortTable>Games Played</TH><TH class=sortTable width=45>Av. Profit</TH><TH class=sortTable width=45>Av. Stake</TH><TH class=sortTable width=45>Av. ROI</TH><TH class=sortTable width=50>Total Profit</TH><TH class=sortTable>Form</TH></TR></THEAD> <TBODY id=tablerows><TR class=sortTable id=NutPopper#pokerstars&null><TD class=sortTable align=middle>NutPopper </TD><TD class=sortTable align=middle>17,108</TD><TD class=sortTable title="The Av. Profit is the Average Profit Per Game after rake has been subtracted." align=right>$1.17 </TD><TD class=sortTable title="The Av. Stake is the average tournament buy-in amount." align=right>$20 </TD><TD class=sortTable title="The Av. ROI is the Average of each game's Return On Investment. It is the average of each (Payout-(Stake+Rake))/(Stake+Rake). This is not the same as total ROI which is (Total Payouts-(Total Rake+Total Stakes))/(Total Stakes+Total Rake)." align=middle>7%</TD><TD class=sortTable title="The Total Profit is the net profit for this player (and includes rake)." align=right>$20,036 </TD><TD class=sortTable title="W = Win. P = Payout. L = Loss." align=middle>LLPLLLLL</TD><TD class=sortTable>x</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

If you are indeed correct about Nutpopper's range, though, A9o is most definitely a call!

6.6% seems awfully low for an optimal calling range when you're talking about risking 2nd place money to get third...

Shoving small cards here is definitely very very bad in NutPopper's spot. If you do so, you are actually in a three-way dogfight most of the time when the BB calls and doubles through you. The whole point of getting your chips in the middle a great majority of the time is to take advantage of fold equity. Here, Nutpopper has none.

lol that seems like very strange statistics to me that you are that close break even heh

"you are ahead against any intelligent player's shoving range"

ahead isnt all that matters here. if you call, shorty folds ands youre probably slightly ahead, but still looking at getting 3rd about 40% of the time. if you win, you become the big stack, but i personally think thats why this is not an ATC shove from nutpopper. if you fold, bb is almost certainly calling, and if nutpopper loses, it' s a brand new game. he has nothing invested, why would he risk that happening with 93??? it's almost certain that somone is calling him here and he wouldnt want to lose a pot to either of you. he'll still have a pretty loose range, but i cant imagine it being any two.

"and you are certainly ahead against the BB"

bold assertion for having no information...

i fold it.

this is a call for me. you've already made the money, moving up into 2nd doesnt mean that much, especially if the shortstack calls and wins. so you might as well call with your ace high as youre ahead of his range or will suckout enough times to make this the best play in this scenario.

as far as shoving any 2. I will shove all but the very worst hands, because most of the time, shorty will fold junk in a lame attempt to limp into 2nd. with blinds of 400/800 and 7000 chips. if you dont shove every hand, i believe this is more of a chip spew than to shove any 2

Shoving most hands in NutPopper's spot is not good. Your assertion that most of the time shorty folds is not even remotely correct. In the event that Chrono folds, shorty will never fold 23o here to NutPopper's shove. He will call 100% of the time.

that makes sense, thank you.

unless shorty is a complete moron who knowns nothing about end game for sit n gos. i think you give too much credit to players who probably know nothing about sit n go strategy. given all the dead money already in the pot, I think shoving is even money at worst usually

thanks for the post.
clearly this is a situation where there are lots of different opinions.
also clearly an important decision point in these sngs.

I must admit to not be a star at ICM but to me its just a mathematical model to account for profit of folding in these situations.
I have to say that no math involved i feel no need to get into this pot since BB will call. He may even call if you do and now you are three way with A9o.
Folding gives you good chance to walk into second with enuf chips to fight. BBs chips going to Nutpopper is no big shakes here IMHO. You are out the SB and antes- agian no big deal.

further I hate to be the monkey in the middle....

thanks for the post

brian

if one assumes that NutPopper is a good player w/ICM knowledge/application, then i come up with this

a) NutPopper is shoving 41% of hands ( 33+,A2+,K4o+,K2s+,Q8o+,Q5s+,J9o+,J7s+,T8s+) if he knows that the BB is calling with any two.

b) Given that NutPopper is shoving 41% of hands, from the SB we need a VERY tight range to call here b/c of a) above. This range according to SnGPT is 5% (99+,AQo+,AJs+)

c) given a) above, if you call with A9o, you are losing $1.79 on average.

one thing about your (OP) post you may want to consider is your belief that you "know he is going to be pushing ATC in this spot". if he is truly a good SnG player, then he is NOT pushing any two in this spot and should be restricting himself to the ranges above to maximize $EV.

assuming NutPopper is playing close to optimum, this is a fold.