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Villains range on river? (100nl)

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  1. kokonotz kokonotz is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 556
    Joined: Nov 06

    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 12:12am)

    Villain is VPIP - 37%, PFR - 7%, 3 Bet - 8 %, Donk bet flop - 33%, Agression Factor - 3.3 over 50 hands or so. Has been sitting with ~$60 all the time i've been there.

    I have only been at the table for one orbit, not gotten out of line or shown anything down.

    Seat 3 is the button
    Seat 1: xxxx ( $98.50 USD )
    Seat 2: Hero ( $99.00 USD )
    Seat 3: xxxx ( $99.50 USD )
    Seat 4: xxxx ( $97.06 USD )
    Seat 5: xxxx ( $38.54 USD )
    Seat 6: Villain (BB) ( $60.53 USD )
    xxxx posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
    Villain posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
    ** Dealing down cards **
    Dealt to Hero [ 9c 7c ]
    xxxx folds
    Hero raises [$3.50 USD]
    xxxx folds
    xxxx folds
    Villain calls [$2.50 USD]
    ** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, As, 2h ] (Pot = $7.50)
    Villain bets [$1.00 USD]
    Hero raises [$5.00 USD]
    Villain calls [$4.00 USD]
    ** Dealing Turn ** [ Kh ] (Pot = $17.50)
    Villain bets [$5.00 USD]
    Hero raises [$10.00 USD]
    Villain calls [$5.00 USD]
    ** Dealing River ** [ 3c ] (Pot = $37.50)
    Villain checks

    Hero ????

    What range does villain have on river? Is my play horrible? Is shoving profitable?
  2. Adam013085 Adam013085 is offline

    IL
    United States

    Posts: 616
    Joined: May 08

    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 1:17am) in reply to kokonotz

    hes got 1/3 of his stack in and if he thinks hes good on the turn that 3 didnt do anything for your hand probably.
  3. Etrain99 Etrain99 is offline

    Canton, MA
    United States

    Posts: 3,280
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    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 1:27am) in reply to kokonotz

    lol at this hand .. i mean honestly i read it somewhat quick but from what i gathered it really just looks like your trying to show that you arent just an "abc" player to the forums because this play doesnt make any sense especially since youve only been at this table for 1 orbit .. i just dont get what you are trying to do at this table as soon as you sit down with this hand and this spot

    and im confused u said u had been at the table for 1 orbit yet u state villians stats are over 50 hands .. im confused
  4. kokonotz kokonotz is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 556
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    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 1:38am) in reply to Etrain99

    I have 50 hands on him because i had played with him before apparently (but i can't remember them, hence no reads).

    My cards are pretty much irrelevant as i'd take this line with a good amount of my range, and i think the play is fairly "abc" & makes a lot of sense....but....that is entirely dependent on my perception of the range of hands he'd play like this; i'm mostly interested in what people think fishy villains have when they take these kind of lines.
    Thread Starter
  5. nezbit nezbit is offline

    Lacey, WA
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    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 1:53am) in reply to kokonotz

    check on river means he isnt super strong that is ruled out. he bet 2 other times and you raised, if he was strong he would just lead again and hope u raised so he could reraise.

    check obv means he is mediocre and doesnt want to get raised or missed his flushdraw.

    I see people do this all the time with flushdraws or a weak ace.

    i think shoving looks more supspect to weak aces who might call. only hands you fold with ur shove are flushdraws. I think half pot folds flushdraws as well. its risk reward here. i dont like shoving. just bet like $22-26, me more likely to fold a weak ace against that bet than he would an all in imo.

    but back to the question: range? flushdraw or weak ace
  6. dannyg1989 dannyg1989 is offline

    Bingley
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    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 5:25am) in reply to kokonotz

    yes your play is horrible lol fold pre. i can understand your raise size on the flop...but the turn....hes never ever ever ever ever ever gonna fold to a min raise there, ever!

    as said above i reckon either a missed flush/straight draw or a weak ace. he could have hit a higher two pair on the river with A3.

    in this spot it probs fire like $25 and have my fingers crossed he doesnt shove back! i think the flush/straight draws will make up the majority of his range here.

    also have you altered the hand history? coz you have 6 stacks at the top of the HH but only 5 actions pf...or was seat 4 or 5 sittin out?
  7. jcpeace jcpeace is offline

    Kansas City, MO
    United States

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    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 5:34am) in reply to kokonotz

    I wager a $25 green chip on the river
  8. marc1313 marc1313 is offline

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    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 5:37am) in reply to kokonotz

    - pre is fine

    - flop is fine

    - turn is beyond terrible. no way he's ever folding to a minraise there

    - river= just give it up. he has an ace, and he's not folding it.
  9. kokonotz kokonotz is offline

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    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 6:33am) in reply to kokonotz

    I should have emphasized stack sizes perhaps; my turn min-raise (and his call) makes the pot $37.50, villain has $42.03 behind by the river.

    I'm not trying to make him fold on the turn, just take a line that i think villain will feel is super-strong (i'm assuming that villain will not realize that any made hand < fullhouse would raise more to appropriately charge a flush draw, and that A4-AQ are all the same hand now) and give me maximum fold equity on the river.
    Thread Starter
  10. dannyg1989 dannyg1989 is offline

    Bingley
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    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 6:36am) in reply to kokonotz

     
    Originally Posted by kokonotz View Post

    I should have emphasized stack sizes perhaps; my turn min-raise (and his call) makes the pot $37.50, villain has $42.03 behind by the river.

    I'm not trying to make him fold on the turn, just take a line that i think villain will feel is super-strong (i'm assuming that villain will not realize that any made hand < fullhouse would raise more to appropriately charge a flush draw, and that A4-AQ are all the same hand now) and give me maximum fold equity on the river.

    lookin at the stats your provided and the way he played this hand i highly doubt he will be thinkin anythin about how strong your hand is...youre givin him too much credit :)
  11. kokonotz kokonotz is offline

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    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 6:49am) in reply to dannyg1989

    Yea, i'm like 95% sure he's playing his cards and not giving much thought to my actions, however i think he will feel that my turn min-raise is 'strong' (without really assigning me any range) - i think that if villain had a monster he'd min-raise the turn a good % of the time.
    Thread Starter
  12. u shove i call u shove i call is offline

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    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 7:39am) in reply to marc1313

     
    Originally Posted by marc1313 View Post

    - pre is fine

    - flop is fine

    - turn is beyond terrible. no way he's ever folding to a minraise there

    - river= just give it up. he has an ace, and he's not folding it.

    This man speaks the truth.
  13. JmL1984 JmL1984 is offline

    New Zealand

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    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 8:00am) in reply to u shove i call

     
    Originally Posted by u shove i call View Post

     
    Originally Posted by marc1313 View Post

    - pre is fine

    - flop is fine

    - turn is beyond terrible. no way he's ever folding to a minraise there

    - river= just give it up. he has an ace, and he's not folding it.

    This man speaks the truth.

    This.

    after you repopped him on the flop (to his LOL minraise) and he called your reraise of 5x than you shouldve given up. that was your cheapest/most logically time to make a move...you made your move and it didnt work out, no biggie. but don't stack off because he can't fold. just use that information for the future and cbet the crap outta him. don't stack off and just get yourself in the hole with a fish. you will have plenty of time to get that $8 back, so relax and fold IMO

    if he minraised it either means:

    A) he is just cbetting like a donk and doesnt have anything, which means he folds to your reraise.

    or

    B) has a monster and is min betting because he is a donkey and doesnt want you to fold but wants more $$$ in the pot.

    after he called your 5x reraise i think its pretty clear what option it is. 15% of the time he might have KK and you could get him to lay it down with an all in river shove, but why would you even consider that? thats beyond spewy in general. you would have to have a sick read on the guy to justify that play...and even then.
  14. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

    New York, NY
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    Dec 10th, 2009 (12/10/2009 8:59am) in reply to kokonotz

     
    Originally Posted by kokonotz View Post

    I should have emphasized stack sizes perhaps; my turn min-raise (and his call) makes the pot $37.50, villain has $42.03 behind by the river.

    I'm not trying to make him fold on the turn, just take a line that i think villain will feel is super-strong (i'm assuming that villain will not realize that any made hand < fullhouse would raise more to appropriately charge a flush draw, and that A4-AQ are all the same hand now) and give me maximum fold equity on the river.

    I lol'd. You're playing 100NL against a 37/7 player and you actually think you can set him up? Either drop it after the flop or make a real raise on the turn. In any event, it's probably not worth bluffing the turn vs. a 37/7 player who may call down with top pair/weak kicker and/or play a draw without proper pot odds. This type of player is in enough pots that you can take his money later by value betting every street with TPTK, 2 pair or a set. Unless you have a better history and have seen him fold in similar situations, let this one go on the flop.
     969 
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