Before I even start, let me just preface this by saying that I'm looking for mathematical analysis, not vague generalities like "You play to win the game." Let me also say that I was in absolute shock that my friend even sent me this hand looking for advice, because I insta-shove this 100% of the time without even thinking. Turns out some top poker minds think that I'm wrong, and I'd like a mathematical discussion of why.

Here's the spot: On the bubble of the $26 33k KO on FTP this past Sunday, 331 players remain, 324 places pay, mincash is $43 and change. 1st is $13.5k.

My friend has 9000 chips at 500/1000/125 and the whole table has him significantly covered. He is dealt AQ suited UTG+2 and asks me what to do. Before I can even finish laughing and say "obviously you shove," he tells me that he tank folded and that it's correct. He then forwards me an IM from someone very high on the MTT food chain who plays the $40k and $50k events at the Series which says "AQ suited is literally lighting money on fire." I am then told that this same high end poker think tank folds JJ and AK in this spot to guarantee money, so their range is QQ+ ONLY.

This blows my mind. I know it comes from a group of mathematical savants, but it goes counter to everything I've ever learned to suggest that the vast majority of MTTers who have been successful are extremely -ev in their MTT bubble play. They contend that we all extremely discount the value of cashing as poker is about making the most money long run, not winning, and that by folding everything but QQ+ for the next 2 or 3 hands until the bubble bursts, they are making a +ev decision that most MTTers happily ignore in a sea of "You play to win the game"-like cliches.

Are they right? I'd love for this discussion to include math, because it goes against everything intuitive and everything that most players have learned. I think they might be right if he has, say, 2bbs left, but that's a special case.

Go.

I find it extremely hard to believe that this high stakes live player would fold AQs on the bubble with under 10bbs. You are completely correct to shove here and I don't even see an arguement for any other play even if I try hard to. The bubble is the time to make +EV plays vs. other nitty players in order to accumulate, especially when you have a top starting hand and are in a position where you have to accumulate quickly or you are dead. I mean what's the alternative fold your way into a min cash and look for a better spot? TBH probaly not going to happen. It's a snap jam.

never folding aq with 9bb esp when im the first one in the pot. I am not sure you can turn this hand in to a function of mathmatics bc there are to many unknown variables.

Haha, well, that sounds like something a live-player would do. Or better yet, he would r/f AQ with a 9bb stack. Oh yes, that's something a live-player would do.

Also fwiw I'm jamming there

 

Originally Posted by Gettin Daize

ur friends friend prol loses at 40-50k live events jus sayin

for reals. id love to know a person "very high on the MTT food chain" who would advocate such awful play

FTR I agree with everyone who has posted above me. Obviously you rape bubbles to win, but their contention is that you lose more by busting when you're short than you gain in cEV by winning.

The "AQs is lighting money on fire" email and the instructions to fold JJ and AK came from ZeeJustin ftr...

 

Originally Posted by zander

FTR I agree with everyone who has posted above me. Obviously you rape bubbles to win, but their contention is that you lose more by busting when you're short than you gain in cEV by winning.

The "AQs is lighting money on fire" email and the instructions to fold JJ and AK came from ZeeJustin ftr...

Holy shit I didn't even see in the op about folding JJ and AK there's a big zero% chance these players said this

I must be a donk because I shove this 99.9% of the time. Tough to wait for a better hand when that short. I love me some live poker!!

 

Originally Posted by The Baby Bull

If you're playing a 10K buyin and the min cash is about 20K, then I can see folding to make the money. Folding in a $26 to make $43 is just goofy.

I posted this in another thread about 3r and not playing ak vs qq on bubble about not caring too much about bubbling that buy in. So technically, all your decisions should be what makes u the most money in the long run.

I'm curious, would these mathematical savants fold this hand on the CO, BTN or SB? I think position must have a lot to do with it. In a SnG I might fold ATo UTG 6 handed, but shove A8o on the BTN. I guess the reasoning is you have less players to get through and less chance of running into a stronger hand.

So what would be their late position shoving ranges? Also would they call a LP shove in the BB w/ this hand?

Sure, fold AQs on the bubble to give yourself the maximum chance to get ITM for yet another min-cash.

While I'm not wild about AQ in a lot of situations and often see players get broke overplaying the hand, I believe this high-stakes player is levelling or is a moron. Fold with 9 bbs? What a fucking fool. Hope he enjoys all the min-cashes coming his way, cos there'll be a lot more to come in his illustrious career-if his bankroll lets him get that far.

Youd be punting your EV by nitting it up on the bubbles, not the opposite.

I can certainly understand the logic that a lot of players, including myself, gamble too light on the bubble with the play to win attitude, but I cant see how folding AQs from UTG+2 is correct. I have no idea how to figure out what hands would be mathematically profitable but would definately be interested in seeing the results from this position with 9 bbs.

The debate is how an extra round of blinds makes that much of a difference in your stack as opposed to taking the gtd money...but this logic is a lil flawed b/c when u look at the big picture, acouple orbits down the road after a few allin pots and double ups; those extra chips mean A TON! Exponentially speaking, this small pot could mean much more than just a min cash down the road when "playing for the win"