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weird bubble spot in a turbo SNG

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  1. sparcplug sparcplug is offline

    Ardmore, PA
    United States

    Posts: 13
    Joined: Nov 06

    Sep 11th, 2007 (9/11/2007 10:47am)

    pokerstars Game #11996125592: Tournament #60874718, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2007/09/11 - 10:43:26 (ET)
    Table '60874718 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
    Seat 1: Xameron (2380 in chips)
    Seat 3: tstep (8630 in chips)
    Seat 5: lodani69 (810 in chips)
    Seat 7: sparcplug (1680 in chips)
    Xameron: posts the ante 50
    tstep: posts the ante 50
    lodani69: posts the ante 50
    sparcplug: posts the ante 50
    lodani69: posts small blind 300
    sparcplug: posts big blind 600
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to sparcplug [9s 9d]
    Xameron: folds
    tstep: raises 600 to 1200
    lodani69: calls 460 and is all-in

    I mean is this an auto-fold, auto-call or what? sb and button are both pretty much playing atc.
  2. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

    Westland, MI
    United States

    Posts: 6,364
    Joined: Mar 06

    Sep 11th, 2007 (9/11/2007 11:20am) in reply to sparcplug

    Well, you can't call. It's a push or a fold here (though, calling, can't see anyone folding). Really, you are in third now, have a decent hand, and your getting third place unless you have the worst hand and lodani69 has the best.

    Lodani's range is just about any 2. He doesn't have much time, has to push something, the ante's are eating him alive right now. Tstep can raise with anything here.

    Plus, given either can do their actions with ATC just about, let's say they each have a 50% chance to win. If the low stack loses, you are in the money, but not in a good spot to win. If tstep loses, you are now in trouble, and it looks lieke step could have a handle on ICM, and then your folding and praying for the money.

    So, you are not guaranteed the money here by folding.

    I think this is a push. If you or tstep wins, you are guaranteed 3rd place money, and you are comfortably in second if you you win the hand.

    Push it
  3. samwise113 samwise113 is offline

    Dún Laoghaire
    Ireland

    Posts: 36
    Joined: Aug 07

    Sep 11th, 2007 (9/11/2007 12:23pm) in reply to lordxixor101

    insta-push
  4. TheMayor TheMayor is offline

    Boston, MA
    United States

    Posts: 4,699
    Joined: Jul 06

    Sep 11th, 2007 (9/11/2007 12:53pm) in reply to sparcplug

    SB is definitely not calling with ATC. He folded the last hand when he had 600 in the blind and 810 left behind, didn't he?

    If button is literally playing ATC then this is a reraise allin obv, but i doubt that he is.

    Doesn't anyone on p5's have SNGPT? Lol i can never run #'s at work but this situation is so simple to find the answer to with software.
  5. mash mash is offline

    Wroclaw
    Poland

    Posts: 137
    Joined: Jul 07

    Sep 11th, 2007 (9/11/2007 1:21pm) in reply to sparcplug

    easy push.
     
  6. sotti sotti is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 1,342
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    Sep 11th, 2007 (9/11/2007 4:26pm) in reply to sparcplug

    This is a great hand for ICM. The fact that's it's 3 way makes it very interesting and complicates matters much.

    Main pot is 2320 and you only have to call 160 into it for huge odds on the side pot
    Total main pot w/ call 2480

    Side pot is 870 with a 1:1 call for 870
    Total side pot w/ call 1740

    So your EV for possible out comes on a call are from best to worst
    You win both pots ($45.02)
    The big stack wins both pots ($27)
    You win side pot, shorty win main ($23.74)
    You lose both pots ($0)

    Oddly enough you'd rather have the big stack knock both of you out then have the SS double up. Now if you you fold the two possible out comes are.

    Big stack wins ($33.41)
    Short stack wins ($16.84)

    So now we need hand ranges...
    Big stack: random (any two cards)

    Short Stack top 75%: 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T5s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T5o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o, 65o, 54o

    You have: 99

    So with those ranges the short stack is 54/46 favorite against random so if you fold you equity is
    (33.41).4589 + (16.84).5411 = $24.44

    So if you call you get the more complex equation.
    If you win, you win both
    $45.02 * .5112

    If the Big stack wins he wins both
    $27 * .2246

    If the Short stack wins, the
    .2641 * (.7205($23.74) + .27943($0))

    so the full equation is
    ($45.02 * .5112) + ($27 * .2246) + (.2641 * (.7205($23.74) + .27943($0))) = 33.59

    33.59 > 24.44 by alot

    lets say everyone is ALOT tighter.
    Big stack only pushes top 35%
    Short stack only calls top 30%
    obv you still have 99

    the math goes to...
    ($45.02 * .4286) + ($27 * .2847) + (.2866 * ((.6045 * $23.74) + (.3955 * $0))) = 31.95

    $31.95 > 24.44

    And just because we know the short stack winning is the worst scenario for you lets says he's tight, and the big stack is random

    (45.02 * .46975) + (27 * .20773) + (.32252 * ((.72057 * 23.74) + (.27943 * 0))) = 32.27

    So you're in even better shape there.

    So after all this impenitrable math, 100% call everytime.
  7. sparcplug sparcplug is offline

    Ardmore, PA
    United States

    Posts: 13
    Joined: Nov 06

    Sep 11th, 2007 (9/11/2007 5:12pm) in reply to sotti

    I ended up doing a really really rough ICM model based on atc (button had been raising with weird, weird hands and SB had been calling with even weirder) and figured out i pretty much had to push. Just wanted to see what others thought.

    button had 76s, sb had Q2. button flopped trips, no Q came, sparc in 3rd.
    Thread Starter
  8. sotti sotti is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 1,342
    Joined: Sep 06

    Sep 11th, 2007 (9/11/2007 5:48pm) in reply to sparcplug

    third isn't a horrible situation for you, it was one of the best ICM outcomes.

    :)
  9. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
    Joined: Nov 05

    Sep 11th, 2007 (9/11/2007 8:20pm) in reply to sparcplug

    Shove, because in order for you to bubble here, the shorty has to win the hand, and you have to lose to both players. With 99 that is unlikely.
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