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Weird ICM spot in nhg 3 handed

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  1. AApoker AApoker is offline

    San Jose, CA
    United States

    Posts: 138
    Joined: Dec 06

    Apr 10th, 2010 (4/10/2010 4:54am)

    I had gotten very lucky a few hands earlier where the two guys had about 800k chips each but they played a huge pot and the bruce wizayne guy doubled sending him to a commanding chip lead. The leoeguy doubled off me when I called his 2 bb shove with K8 he had 57s and doubled. He is now at 5bbs when this hand comes up. It seems very much like we are locked up for 2nd place, and most likely will finish 2nd in this tourney if we go into HU with an 8:1 chip deficit. I do consider myself proficient at heads up but if we are handicapping those odds seem hard to overcome.

    Clearly if he wasn't so short -- 3 bet calling followed by shoving seem like the best options, however in this spot there is a huge ICM consideration. What's our play and why?

    Opponents opening range here is probably ATC, am not quite sure what I would put his calling range at.

    Payouts are 19k, 14k and 10.5k in case anyone can do an ICM calc.

    pokerstars Game #42446748469: Tournament #305011045, $150+$12 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXII (4000/8000) - 2010/04/10 0:06:15 PT [2010/04/10 3:06:15 ET]
    Table '305011045 19' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
    Seat 3: thenutzzzz12 (236418 in chips)
    Seat 5: leoe29 (43440 in chips)
    Seat 6: BruceWizayne (1796142 in chips)
    thenutzzzz12: posts the ante 800
    leoe29: posts the ante 800
    BruceWizayne: posts the ante 800
    thenutzzzz12: posts small blind 4000
    leoe29: posts big blind 8000
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to thenutzzzz12 [Td Ts]
    BruceWizayne: raises 8000 to 16000
    thenutzzzz12: ??
     
  2. mapunk mapunk is offline

    Encinitas, CA
    United States

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    Apr 10th, 2010 (4/10/2010 5:09am) in reply to AApoker

    3b/call for sure. He could be 4bet here so light b/c of the pay jumps, and T's are just way too sexy here to fold b/c of that.
     
  3. AApoker AApoker is offline

    San Jose, CA
    United States

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    Apr 10th, 2010 (4/10/2010 5:19am) in reply to AApoker

    Well the other point is even, if I do 3 bet I am often gonna get 4 bet by Ax hands, which case I gotta fade the over and even if I do win I'm still a 3:1 chip underdog to the CL.
     
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  4. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

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    Apr 10th, 2010 (4/10/2010 5:41am) in reply to AApoker

    Shoving beats 3-bet/call because we would rather have some chance to win the pot uncontested than face Ax with TT and win only 70% of the time. The chips we risk are worth more than three times the chips we stand to gain.
  5. ManchVegasPwn ManchVegasPwn is offline

    Manchester, NH
    United States

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    Apr 10th, 2010 (4/10/2010 8:29am) in reply to AApoker

    i prob just jam it in instead of 3bet/call... he might flat and put u in a awkward spot post flop... I dont see how you can fold this.. if the 45k stack doubles up (especially if its thru you) hes gonna have about 100k to your 200k, and at that point anything can happen really... with 30k out there, and 180k behind to start the hand, a shove prob yields the best results... This hand would play out a lot different probably, if you were sititng on 40+BB's.
     1
  6. iPlayTourneys iPlayTourneys is online now

    Brazil

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    Apr 10th, 2010 (4/10/2010 10:08am) in reply to Jennifear

     
    Originally Posted by Jennifear View Post

    Shoving beats 3-bet/call because we would rather have some chance to win the pot uncontested than face Ax with TT and win only 70% of the time. The chips we risk are worth more than three times the chips we stand to gain.

    If we decide to play at all, we need to shove. Not giving him any chance to apply pressure to us in any way.

    What is his calling range when we shove? 99+, AQ+ ?? I'm pretty sure he'll muck KQs type of hands because of domination.
    ^^ This range is ~ 5%. I think villain will open like 80% of his range here, at least. maybe even 100%.. If he raises 80% of the time here, he'll show up with 99+,AQ+ here ~ 6,25% of the time.

    If he calls, we have 44,25% equity against his calling range.

    If we (and the BB) fold we, our stack is worth: $14113,56

    If we shove and he folds, our stack will be worth: $14176,60
    If we shove and he calls, we win, our stack will be worth: $14938,95
    If we shove and he calls, we loose, we win: $10500

    So our $EV of a shove would be:
    93,75% * 14176,60 + 6,28% * (44,25% * 14938,95 + 45,75% * 10500) = $14007,38

    If we fold our stack is worth: $14.113,56
    If we shove our stack is worth: $14.007.38

    Shoving looses us $106,18 a time.

    If you are not scared money and don't mind busting once in a while for ~$10K instead of $14K then I would definitely shove here. Even though it would be slightly -$EV. The chance to get a decent stack when we get HU with a decent chance to TID, is sometimes worth more then the slight $ value we loose here by shoving.
    161 
  7. iPlayTourneys iPlayTourneys is online now

    Brazil

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    Apr 10th, 2010 (4/10/2010 10:12am) in reply to ManchVegasPwn

     
    Originally Posted by ManchVegasPwn View Post


    i prob just jam it in instead of 3bet/call... he might flat and put u in a awkward spot post flop... I dont see how you can fold this.. if the 45k stack doubles up (especially if its thru you) hes gonna have about 100k to your 200k, and at that point anything can happen really... with 30k out there, and 180k behind to start the hand, a shove prob yields the best results... This hand would play out a lot different probably, if you were sititng on 40+BB's.

    If we sit on 40BBs we can cry hard and just fold our TT here if the BTN is even decent good and understand ICM. an openshove wouldn't be +EV for us and a 3bet we can almost 100% expect a 4bet shove which we can't call profitably. Just a crappy spot.

    Even here with ~30BBs I hate my life shoving it all-in, and like I said before, it's slightly -$EV but I would still shove because of the chance to increase our stack size to TID when we would double.
    161 
  8. AApoker AApoker is offline

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    Apr 10th, 2010 (4/10/2010 4:24pm) in reply to iPlayTourneys

    So, in order of preference we like shoving -- folding -- flatting -- 3-bet calling?
     
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  9. iPlayTourneys iPlayTourneys is online now

    Brazil

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    Apr 10th, 2010 (4/10/2010 5:02pm) in reply to AApoker

     
    Originally Posted by AApoker View Post

    So, in order of preference we like shoving -- folding -- 3-bet calling -- flatting?

    FYP
    161 
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