Hand #7929816-73 at Wed9pmA-013 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
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Started at 24/Aug/05 22:11:05
kold is at seat 0 with 3855.
AawwNuts is at seat 1 with 9200.
Moraine is at seat 2 with 2845.
PillPacker is at seat 3 with 6905.
Jack Straw is at seat 4 with 2350.
bmpek is at seat 5 with 6370.
twelvem is at seat 6 with 2585.
jackleggbob is at seat 7 with 2530.
TrishTheFish is at seat 8 with 1860.
rockford hawk is at seat 9 with 1735.
The button is at seat 0.
AawwNuts posts the small blind of 30.
Moraine posts the big blind of 60.
kold: -- --
AawwNuts: Ks Kc
Moraine: -- --
PillPacker: -- --
Jack Straw: -- --
bmpek: -- --
twelvem: -- --
jackleggbob: -- --
TrishTheFish: -- --
rockford hawk: -- --
PillPacker raises to 210. Jack Straw folds. bmpek
folds. twelvem folds. jackleggbob folds.
TrishTheFish folds. rockford hawk folds. kold
folds. AawwNuts re-raises to 360. Moraine folds.
PillPacker goes all-in for 6905. AawwNuts folds,
showing Ks Kc. PillPacker is returned 6545
Hand #7929816-73 Summary:
No rake is taken for this hand.
PillPacker wins 780.
see im not that good, but i would think that the math (and im not a math guy either) would be on your side to call w/ KK everytime. how often will the other guy be holding AA.
I play low limits and low buyin tourneys, so my thoughts might not be correct for this level tourney, but here they are anyway.
I doubt he had aces, and thus don't really like the laydown, though I can't argue with it.
First, I don't think he aces for two reasons. 1) Since you are the chipleader at the table, your min reraise might just be a cheap way to take control of the pot. Obviously, I have no info on how you've been playing, how he's been playing, etc. But you could make that play with low-mid pairs or AJ/AQ. He might have a hand like JJ or AQ that he doesn't want to play after the flop out of position. 2) He's second in chips. The only person he can double thru is you, so if he has aces why force you to call off 75% of your stack preflop.
Second, if I don't think he has aces, I obviously don't agree with laying down the best hand. He knows he is one of two people who can hurt your stack, and probably knows that you only make the call with aces (as you showed). But...you still have the chiplead when you fold. This early in the tourney, keeping your big stack is important. Against any ace, you're not a huge favorite and you'd have to call off most of your stack. Having and keeping a big stack throughout the tourney can be a huge advantage (i forgot what beanie called it in a post a while back, stack equity, or something).
I think this is the first time I haven't agreed with something you've posted, so I'd love to hear some feedback. Regardless, I appreciate the post. Hands like this help a lot. Thanks.
I'm really curious to hear why you folded?
I would have called, unless i knew something about him that said Aces, because i've seen too many people make similar moves with hands like AK, QQ, and JJ, and occasionally AQ or 10-10. He might not have even been that strong if he was feeling particularly frisky, but i don't know anything about how he plays.
Okay, this is hard to try and give advise to such a good player, but I'd like to hear your reply to this.
I am going to assume that it is a trny with a buyin of decent size so that I can give the guy some respect.
I understand why you folded. Why risk the whole tournament early? And this could be the type of player that extremely over bets big hands to look like he is buying the hand.
Obviously it is a decision that should depend on how aggressive this guy has been so far. Has he has raised anything weak, has he been aggressive when raised before, etc.?
I don't want to give you an answer to how I would play your cards, but how I would play his. In this situation it might be helpful to consider why he would play AA like this. I know I wouldn't play AA heads up and in position this way. But thats just me. With hands like AA, I like to have a single caller especially in position.
Next-- Why would he try to run you off this hand if he has AA? Either he is overbetting strong hands to induce a call OR he is a weak player that is simply scared to play post flop.
I put him on QQ or AK without information of his previous play, but then again you would have been putting a big stack in relatively early and for only a small pot. So once again I understand your fold.
Personally, I would call in this situation because I am still going to have an okay stack to play with if I lose (relative to blinds), but a big stack to Bully with if I win. Immediate respect from the entire table regardless.
For what its worth,
You have 150x the BB at the $60 level. I dont think I would want to risk 3/4ths of my stack here either. You clearly dont need to take this risk. If you're outplaying them so far, you got enough play in ya to keep doing it.
If the pay schedule was tilted to first place, I would be more willing to call here. The flatter it is, the less inclined I am. And the more you can outplay this table, the less I am as well. And given your stack size, thats probably the case.
I don't know AawwNutz, this one is a tough judgement call.
Any reads or info on this player?
If I were holding aces and just got reraised, I would call and be delighted to get that kind of action. The last thing I would do is go all-in. I have no way to know that you also picked up a monster of K-K and I would try to extract more chips on each street instead of making this huge raise.
It is possible that your opponent wanted you to think this way and therefore played the hand in this manner so that you wouldn't put him on aces. However, I wouldn't make that assumption with no history of playing against this person.
Without knowing anything about how my opponent plays, I call in this situation.
I don't think your reraise was big enough to get respect here, and he took advantage of what he thought was weakness. But his all-in reraise is puzzling. Does that mean weakness or just feigning weakness... hmmmmm....
Anyway, assuming pillpacker is a strong player we can put him on one of the following three hands:
AK, QQ, AA.
there is only one way to make KK, so we'll just assume this isnt a holding.
Using some rough numbers:
you are a 2:1 favorite over AK and there are 8 ways to make this hand (knowing you hold two kings)
you are a 4:1 favorite over QQ and there are 6 ways to make this hand
you are a 4:1 dog vs AA and there are 6 ways to make the hand.
so, of the 20 hands he might have using rough numbers:
10% of the time it's a stone cold bluff and we'll win about 80% of the time vs a random holding
36% of the time we're up against AK, and of those we'll win 66% of the time
27% of the time we're up against QQ, and of those we'll win 80% of the time
27% of the time we're up against AA, and of those we'll win 20% of the time
grand total: 58.8%. (8% + 23.8% + 21.6% + 5.4%)
This is a pretty marginal edge, so, in the end I'd say at this stage of the tournament with your chip position, Good lay down. (but you already knew that :)
Thanks for the scenario Awwwutz. This was similar to a question I posted a couple of weeks ago. It's hard to say whether to laydown or not without seeing how the other player plays. I know that I have laid down KK twice preflop and not regretted it both times. Both times would have put me all in, however. In each case I didn't put my opponent on aces but on A-anything else. All it takes is another ace on the board to beat the hand. I see a lot of people here saying only if you think your opponent has AA should you lay it down.
I am fairly new to poker, but recently read Super System 2. I briefly recall reading a passage in the book that says NLHE was meant to be played after the flop not before it. (Or something like this - I know I butchered it.) Since reading this my All In bets have been reduced and I think my results have improved.
There are a few factors to look at here:
After all the raising, there is 7565 in the pot. It will cost AwwNutz another 6905 to win 7565. So, he's getting odds of 1.09 to 1. That's basically an even bet... not so hot. Based on the Pot Odds alone I would fold.
Obviously when you see that AwwNutz has the second best hand in the game, hand odds like this will tell you to call any bet including an even bet. Based on Hand Odds alone I call.
How Much Time Invested In the Tourney?
If it's early in the tourney I definitely make this call because I havn't invested much time. If it's late in the tourney there is a premium on survival and picking your best spots to extract chips. That means you are always looking for the best of it. In this situation, an even bet is not getting the best of it. Let's say there is a 15% chance that the guy has Aces. Let's say that there is another 15% chance that he could be sucked out on even if he has the guy beat (especially if the guys has A/K and lands an Ace). So, that's a 30% chance that AwwNuts will lose. Again, why would you risk your respectable chip stack for an even bet??
AwwNutz has really only risked 390 in chips on this hand. That's only 4.2% of his chip stack.... that's nothing. He can easily walk away here and look for less risky ways to extract chips. From a risk/reward standpoint, I would fold.
Has he been tight and aggressive or is he a loose cannon? I suspect one of the major reasons AwwwNutz folded was because this guys table image was tight.
Overall, I fold this hand if it's late in the tourney and the opponent is tight. I call my opponent no matter what if it's early. If it's middle of the tourney I would proabably call, but would be happier if the pot odds were a little better. (1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1 would be much better).
Good laydown AwwNutz. Where'd you finish in the tourney?
Ed, is this really you... the stock trader?? If so, it's an honor to post to you!
I had an entire post written out about why he didn't have aces and then the more I think about the situation, the more I need to know about it. He may have had it. How many times the bb did this guy normally raise and how many times the bb normally drove the table out of the game? If 3.5 was about a normal raise from him then I could easily have him on less of a hand. At that point he could've been reacting to you defending your blinds and/or think you were trying to gain the advantage going to the flop, then thinking his QQ was the best hand and was willing to take the pot there without the risk of an A or K hitting. With position on you after the flop, I think he would've let you see the flop with AA after maybe getting a little more money from you pre-flop but not all-in just yet. This all assuming that his original pre-flop raise wasn't out of character at all for him or that table. If it was then I can see how you could put him on AA. Great post.
First time poster. I make no claims to be a great, or even very good, player.
I remember seeing this and thinking you laid down the winner. I thought PillPacker would make that move with a wide range of hands.
Looking at it a day later, however, I think you made a good decision. If you called and lost, either by being behind or by getting sucked out on, your tournament prospects are severly damaged. If you win, I am not sure how much it will affect your eventual outcome, as it is still pretty early in the tourney. By folding, you still are a big stack and can still play the bully or just look for good opportunities.
I know you were still going when I busted out around 26th and coupled with the fact that you couldn't win a race to save your life, attests to the good decisions you made in the tournament.
That said, I probably would still call. Like I said, I don't claim to be a great player.
Since the blinds are only 30 / 60, it's early in the tournament. Based on the chip stacks, I would say your top 5 in chip stacks.
I would guess that he was pretty tight, or just moved to your table. If he was a total nut (aggressive), I would have called. If he was tight, I would have laid it down. I would have to have a feel of the table before I could give you a definitive answer.
Smithereens (Thanks for your answer BTW)
Nothing wrong with laying down a likley winner this early in the tournament.
He has a pretty nice stack early too, which likely indicates he is overly aggressive.
Although I think it is unlikey he had AA there, he most likely had QQ, JJ or AK.
He would likely have made a smaller raise with AA in my opinion.
Based on your info I think he had JJ.
Thanks for all of the great responses guys. The funny thing with this hand is that I folded and showed it very quickly. But, I've been mulling the decision over ever since. I played awesome poker last night and finished in the money in 3 out of the 4 tourneys I entered. I never had AA on any table the whole night, but did pick up KK several times.
Like I said, when I played the hand I really insta-folded and showed my hand. At this point, 45-50 minutes in, I had totally dominated my table. I was sitting in the top 5 for the whole tourney going from 2500 to 9200. JSUP was teasing me about my rapid chip-up.
The reasons I folded:
1) There was NO reason for me to want to play a pot that big at that point. I had over 150x the BB and this guy is ready to play for over 120x BB. I would have been sweating it even if I had to call with AA because losing 7000 chips is twice as devastating as winning 7000 is beneficial.
2) He opened UTG and quickly pushed all-in after my raise. This IS a possibility for AA, but it is more probable that he had AK. BTW, I did the min raise just to clarify some strength so I could follow up on the flop and he would believe it. I did not really want to play a huge pot with the guy.
3) My table was very sweet. I had nice control with a good image against a table with at least 3 bad players. I like my chances of winning 7000 chips in better spots.
4) I really didn't care, nor try to figure out, what kind of a hand that the guy had. I was not going to play that size pot knowing that it was very likely that he had at least one A which makes me at most a 70% favorite. A 30% chance of losing great tournament position while playing very well against a VERY easy table is too valuable to risk for a few more chips.
5) I only had 360 invested in the hand. Less than 4% of my stack.
I showed the KK for advertising reasons. I think if you ever fold KK or AK pre-flop, go ahead and show it. Later on, I won a big pot from the same player on a bluff. I believe he folded a reasonable hand because of our earlier encounter.
Of course, the guy tells me that he laid down AA, but I don't necessarily believe it. I can say that there is not one single hand that I could have received in his position that would have made me push all-in the way he did.
As far as his image, to have that many chips at this point in the tourney he obviously was an aggressive player. I didn't have any information about him being a poor player. He had just been moved to the table about 10 hands prior.
I went on to finish about 12th in the tourney when my AQ ran into AK six-handed. I was in the blind and felt the AK guy was making a stab at the blinds when they were 1600/800. I pushed in my case 25k after he opened from the cutoff with 5500. Could've done better at the end, but it's bad luck for AQ to run into AK six handed.
Thanks for the explanation, Awwwnutz. You kept me in suspense all day!
With KK I'm either down to 2K or up to 17K, there are very few players that i respect enough to lay down a monster like KK. If your goal is to make the money, then laying it down is a good play, if your trying to win the tourny I dont think you can lay it down.
With your skill, chip position, and the type of table you are describing I think this a relatively easy fold. One of the most important things in a tournament situation is avoiding other big stacks when you are the big stack unless you are holding the nuts (or something close to it). Although KK is the second best starting hand in holdem, I hardly think it qualifies as the nuts in this case as there is a 30% you could lose this hand (that's assuming he <span>doesn't</span> have AA). Yea, 17,000 puts you at the top of the hill, but there is still a buttload of poker to be played. 30/60 blinds is hardly the time to be gambling when you've got the table by the throat. Good laydown in my opinion
So what it boils down to is that even if you thought you were ahead in this particular hand, it was far more important not to lose 7k chips than it was to win them and that's why you folded.
I have to disagree with you Nut01. I was ALREADY in great position to win the tournament. It didn't make sense for me to jeopardize that position when I could be in really bad shape or be a 70% favorite. Losing 7000 at this point would far greater reduce my chance of winning the tournament than winning 7000 would improve my chances.
If this hand happens with 40 people left and it only constitutes maybe 30 or 40 BB, it's an insta call. I posted this to share my ideas on tournament dynamics. I then contrasted this post with another post about a push all-in with QQ when A was on the board. Different chip stacks, different stack to blind ratios, different stage in the tourney. Two different hands played totally different.
I have a couple questions for you if you have time.
1) What do you do if say kold limps behind you and when you raise pill folds but kold goes in for 42% of your stack. Do you still fold or do you play it with the mindset that if you happen to lose you still have the chips to play your way back into it?
2) Do you remember any of the hands that helped you build your stack up so quickly? I'm curious because it seems to me the only way I'm able to build a sizeable stack early is by taking chances and hitting draws and such. Did you just get really good hands early on or hit some flops when you were in the blinds?
1) I definitely call for less than half my stack. I would still be well above average. Pill's chip stack was the reason I folded.
2) My biggest had was a 57 of diamonds that I called from the BB after one player raise to 3x BB and a late player called. The flop came with a decent draw. Original raiser bet a little weakly which was called by late player and myself. The turn brought the nut straight for me and I worked the original raiser and the late player for about 1/2 their stack each. I got a little lip from the raiser because I'm such a bad player. Another hand was calling a raise and a call with AJ of hearts from the SB. Flopped two J's and cleaned out a player. Of course, he said that only fish call with AJ. I guess 75 out of a 4000 chip stack is too important to gamble with - lol.
Thanks for replying Nutz, it really does help to recieve advice from a player of your caliber.
I think you have to laydown here. This is the one type of situation that I will laydown kings.
If he's a solid player there's no reason for him to make this move with any other hand than AA. blinds are 30/60 and he's playing for stacks preflop. Even if he did have AK or QQ it really doesn't matter, you are in very good position and there's no reason to risk see'ing if your right other than curiousity, lol
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