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What are the odds

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  1. CUlater CUlater is offline

    Monroe, LA
    United States

    Posts: 30
    Joined: Mar 05

    Mar 9th, 2005 (3/9/2005 1:51pm)

    I was in a sit n go on UB a couple of weeks ago. It was very early in the game when I get 79 of hearts in the big blind. Nobody raised so I checked. The flop came down all rags but two hearts. I bet the pot for about 50 and got one caller. On the turn the Ace of hearts comes. I bet pretty strong hoping this guy didn't have a higher flush draw. He calls. The river is an Ace. I bet heavy and he raises. I give him credit for a big Ace, thus trips. Since the flop was rags, maybe he thought I was trying to steal and then caught runner runner for trips and bet. I go all in and he calls. He has a boat- slowplayed trips off the flop and caught runner runner Aces for a boat! I know this may not be too original, but I was wondering what the odds were to catch runner runner Aces for a boat?

    Thanks,
    CUlater
  2. Dumb Walrus Dumb Walrus is offline

    S Lake Tahoe, CA
    United States

    Posts: 16,512
    Joined: Jan 05

    Mar 9th, 2005 (3/9/2005 2:13pm) in reply to CUlater

    umm well 28 x 28 = 784... so 1 in 784 times it will go runner runner A-A.
  3. BigGunX BigGunX is offline Mr OT Party

    Williamsburg, VA
    United States

    Posts: 21,287
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    Mar 9th, 2005 (3/9/2005 2:39pm) in reply to Dumb Walrus

    Considering he had one of the aces, isn't it actually 3/45 X 2/44, which would be 1/330?

    Also, if you get raised in that situation, why would you go all in? If the board had paired on the river, especially with aces, I would be satisfied to take my chances with calling his raise, especially in a tournament situation. Just a thought.
     
  4. CUlater CUlater is offline

    Monroe, LA
    United States

    Posts: 30
    Joined: Mar 05

    Mar 9th, 2005 (3/9/2005 2:46pm) in reply to BigGunX

    Great point. This was a cheap sit n go and I put him on trip Aces since he hung around after a rag board and what appeared to be a steal on my part. I totally agree about the board and his re-raise in a big tournament situation. Thanks.
    Thread Starter
  5. jsbyun jsbyun is offline

    Pleasanton, CA
    United States

    Posts: 1,849
    Joined: Feb 05

    Mar 9th, 2005 (3/9/2005 3:40pm) in reply to CUlater

    BTW, those aren't the odds of you losing the hand. Only the odds of running aces because there are a lot more ways for you to lose.
  6. skatter skatter is offline

    Posts: 56
    Joined: Mar 05

    Mar 9th, 2005 (3/9/2005 6:07pm) in reply to BigGunX

    He didn't say he had one of the aces, he said he slow played trips off the flop. So there were 4 aces remaining..

    45:4 = 11:1
    44:3 = 15:1

    Since both situations had to happen (runner runner), multiple 11*15 together to get 165:1, or a 0.6% chance of him hiting runner runner aces.. pretty unlucky. The odds of him hitting a full boat are a lot better than that, those are just the odds of AA coming on the turn and river.
  7. BigGunX BigGunX is offline Mr OT Party

    Williamsburg, VA
    United States

    Posts: 21,287
    Joined: Feb 05

    Mar 9th, 2005 (3/9/2005 7:51pm) in reply to skatter

    You're right, my bad. I read his post wrong. I thought he said the guy hit aces full.
     
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