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What are the odds of flopping a good hand (or good draw) with a suited connector?

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  1. uber noob uber noob is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 9:25am)

    I was just thinking about the value of suited connectors and how often will it hit the flop (or hit a good draw) ?

    Im thinking of the flop only and thinking about : flopping straights, flopping a flush, Flopping trips, Flopping Full House, Flopping Pair/Straight Draw, Pair/ Flush draw. 2 pair or Top Pair, Open Ended Straight Draw.....

    So how often would you say you flop ONE of these?
  2. TriGonzo TriGonzo is offline

    Miami, FL
    United States

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 10:46am) in reply to uber noob

    flopping straight: 1.306%
    flopping flush: 0.842%
    flopping trips: 1.347%
    flopping full house: 0.092%
    flopping open ended draw: 10.449%
    flopping flush draw: 10.944%
    flopping two pair: 2.02%
  3. RandyLerch RandyLerch is offline

    Tampa, FL
    United States

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 11:10am) in reply to TriGonzo

    so you flop a made hand about 5% and a draw about 20% and then 75% you flop .................
  4. WillisNYC WillisNYC is offline

    North Brunswick, NJ
    United States

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 11:15am) in reply to TriGonzo

    TriGonzo, you beat me to it! ON pokermentors I just posted an article that listed these numbers and more. ANY beginning student of the game should get these types of numbers hardwired into their brains so they know what chance they have of having a 'hand' post flop with different types of starting hands.

    http://www.pokermentors.com/

    Look for the strategy article called 'The Basics'

    In essence, Lerch is correct, 5.5% of the time you flop a made hand and 22% of the time you flop a draw, the other 73% of the time you flop nothing or a runner runner type draw.
  5. uber noob uber noob is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 11:18am) in reply to uber noob

    What about Pair + Flush Draw and Pair + Gutshot or Pair + Open Ender ?
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  6. Azone Azone is offline

    Paradise Valley, AZ
    United States

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 11:21am) in reply to WillisNYC

    Playing at MGM NL cash game yesterday and hit AKs 2x and when I bet out $12 (blinds were $1/$2), each time I got called the other players who called me said, I am sorry for what is about to happen.

    Both times they had TJ and first time I was beat with a str8 on the turn, and the other hand a set of Tens when a pair came on the flop (along with a K).

    Although I lost big on these, the guy who had caught the str8 and taken about $80 from me, then tried to draw out on about 5 other hands with me and I won them all!
  7. uber noob uber noob is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 11:24am) in reply to Azone

    REALLY?

    I have a belly button!
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  8. niptuck niptuck is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 11:35am) in reply to uber noob

    add 'em all up and you got about 27% chance, right?
  9. BettinBenny BettinBenny is offline

    Hinton, IA
    United States

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 11:35am) in reply to uber noob

    Uber,

    Odds of flopping a flush with two suited cards ~ 11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48 = 990/117600, or 1/119

    Odds of flopping a flush draw and a pair with two suited cards ~ 11/50 * 10/49 * 6/48 = 660/117600, or 1/178

    Odds of flopping a straight with two connectors ~ 64*6*4/117600 = 1536/117600, or 1/77

    Odds of flopping a straight draw and a pair with two connectors ~ (8*8 + 8*12 + 8*16)/2550 * 6/48 = 1728/117600, or 1/68

    Odds of flopping 4-of-a-kind or 3-of-a-kind or two pair when holding a non-pair ~ 50/50 * 6/49 * 5/48 = 1500/117600, or 1/78

    Odds of flopping a boat when holding a non-pair ~ 6/50 * 5/49 * 4/48 = 120/117600, or 1/980

    We've already counted odds of an open ended straight draw in the "straight draw with a pair" scenario, and there have been other double countings as well, but the number you are looking for is somewhere on the order of (990 + 660 + 1536 + 1728 + 1500 + 120)/117600 = 6534/117600, or 1/18, roughly a 5.5% chance.

    Edit: If you want to count flopping 4 card flushes and open ended straight draws with no pair, you up your perntage to about 27%.
  10. uber noob uber noob is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 11:42am) in reply to BettinBenny

    TYVM for the numbers I appreciate it!
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  11. Smyythe Smyythe is offline

    Victoria
    Canada

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 12:51pm) in reply to uber noob

    Don't forget that depending on the preflop action you can be flopping the dummy end of the straight, trips with a bad kicker, a flush that gets counterfeited on the turn etc. Suited connectors are dangerous if you're not good at getting away from seemingly strong holdings facing heavy action.

    Just something to consider outside of the percentages.
  12. uber noob uber noob is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 1:00pm) in reply to Smyythe

    Good Point and for sure will keep that in mind. Just seems like everyone knows that they are versatile but this puts it in a math perspective so when you are seeing good flops with hands like this. I was just wondering if I am getting lucky or if these actually hit a good amount of the time.
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