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What are the odds? Runner-runner 1 outers for the bad beat!

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  1. hightz hightz is offline

    Saint Louis, MO
    United States

    Posts: 37
    Joined: Jun 06

    Aug 29th, 2008 (8/29/2008 8:28pm)

    My boy hit the bad beat jackpot for $105k a few night ago at Lumiere Place casino here in St. Louis. The hand was:

    My buddy has 22, other guy has AA. He raises preflop, guy with aces smooth calls from the button. Flop is 7 2 A, goes check-check. Turn is a 2, bet, call. River is an A, bet, raise, all-in, call. Runner-runner 1 outers for the $211k jackpot ($105k for loser, $60kish for winner, $5k each for table).

    Can someone smarter than me calculate the odds of this happening (after the set over set flop)? Just curious. Thx!

    BTW one guy at the table got up right before the start of the hand to take a piss... now thats a bad beat! lololol
  2. computerb computerb is offline

    Nashville, TN
    United States

    Posts: 10,169
    Joined: Mar 06

    Aug 29th, 2008 (8/29/2008 8:32pm) in reply to hightz

    50/50. It either happens or it doesn't.
  3. dank773 dank773 is offline

    Chicago, IL
    United States

    Posts: 2,432
    Joined: Jul 05

    Aug 29th, 2008 (8/29/2008 8:33pm) in reply to computerb

    989 to 1
  4. An Actuary An Actuary is offline

    Dallas, TX
    United States

    Posts: 393
    Joined: Jun 06

    Aug 29th, 2008 (8/29/2008 8:48pm) in reply to dank773

    After the flop.... 2 x (1/45) * (1/44) is the probability of two one outers coming

    That's 1 in 990 which equals 989 to 1 as mentioned above
  5. xxbossmanxx xxbossmanxx is offline Plays poker like a X-Boxxx

    Detroit, MI
    United States

    Posts: 3,963
    Joined: Sep 07

    Aug 29th, 2008 (8/29/2008 10:00pm) in reply to hightz

    The guy who got up made the hand happen. If he is in it there would be diff hands, he missed nuthin
  6. Adam013085 Adam013085 is offline

    IL
    United States

    Posts: 616
    Joined: May 08

    Aug 30th, 2008 (8/30/2008 12:43am) in reply to xxbossmanxx

    just a sidenote but thats a nice casino. I have been there 2 times and is the only casino I can have a winning session in lol. thats pretty sweet to hear for your buddy. I did not even know they had a bad beat jackpot at that casino.
  7. Movetime99 Movetime99 is offline

    Henderson, NV
    United States

    Posts: 3,531
    Joined: May 06

    Aug 30th, 2008 (8/30/2008 2:39am) in reply to hightz

    that is a fuckton of money for bb jackpot
  8. hightz hightz is offline

    Saint Louis, MO
    United States

    Posts: 37
    Joined: Jun 06

    Aug 30th, 2008 (8/30/2008 3:23pm) in reply to Adam013085

    Thx, interesting... I thought it would be higher.
    Thread Starter
  9. JRoth15 JRoth15 is offline

    Springfield, IL
    United States

    Posts: 18,276
    Joined: Jul 06

    Aug 30th, 2008 (8/30/2008 4:01pm) in reply to Movetime99

    they don't have crooked dealers like in Northern IN...
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