Full Tilt Poker Game #29612161870: $45,000 KO Guarantee (226606007), Table 30 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 02:29:53 ET - 2011/04/04
Seat 1: DTrain27x (49,324)
Seat 2: TheBulldog3 (41,917)
Seat 3: maxflisp (49,150)
Seat 4: blony_tair (71,126)
Seat 5: GPIMENTA (86,640)
DTrain27x antes 125
TheBulldog3 antes 125
maxflisp antes 125
blony_tair antes 125
GPIMENTA antes 125
maxflisp posts the small blind of 500
blony_tair posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TheBulldog3 [X X]
GPIMENTA folds
DTrain27x has 15 seconds left to act
DTrain27x has requested TIME
DTrain27x raises to 2,000
TheBulldog3 has 15 seconds left to act
ikickyoudoom sits down
TheBulldog3 raises to 5,265
maxflisp folds
blony_tair has 15 seconds left to act
blony_tair raises to 11,111
DTrain27x folds

This is from fairly deep in the $26 45k KO 6 max. blony_tair and I haven't had any significant hands but DTrain27x has been opening alot, and I've been pretty active lately and already 3bet him once this orbit (he folded). I didn't OPR blony_tair but he has a MFTOPS win so I assume he is competent.

My gut feeling in this spot is that villain has a fairly wide range with it being 6 max and an active c/o open followed by a 3bet from an active button. I think this is a really perfect spot for him to be 4betting, and I expect him to recognize this. I also expect him to be fairly light because I am perceived to be a random, so he isn't going to be overly worried about me 5betting with air here (and prob thinks I will fold some pretty strong hands) so his bluff should be successful a much higher % of the time than if I weren't a random.

So if we assume he is 4betting a wide range (please discuss if this assumption is likely flawed), what types of hands do we want to be 5bet shoving. Ax type hands are likely to be ahead of his hand, but unlikely to be called by worse, and connectors obv aren't going to be ahead ever but will likely have more equity when called.

What should our value and bluff ranges look like in this spot? I find these types of spots difficult when I have a marginal hand that is going to be ahead a good amount of the time, but virtually never ahead when called. So it seems like folding is bad, but jamming is basically a bluff, but stacks are too short to flat and/or our hand isn't going to flop well.

Thanks for any input, I think spots like this give me alot of trouble in general whether it is facing a 3bet or a 4bet or whatever, so it seems interesting to me.

 

Originally Posted by mcandrews3rd

guessing hes callin with 1010+ aq+ mayb jst ak

given that our value range is like qq+ ak mayb jj too

but bluff range any pair, 22-99 will all play the same against his calling range, suited connectors, prob folding broadway and ax cos your gona be crushed wen called imo

as it is im jst folding without my value range, only if i knew the guy liked to cold 4 bet a fair bit would i be bluffing here

Thanks, I think this makes alot of sense. I jammed Ax and he snapped with AJo, which makes me tend to think that he did have a fairly wide 4b range there, but the more I thought about it after the more I really didn't like my play.

i would jam complete airbiscuits here, the only reason i would be the least bit worried is bc it is such and obv 5b spot given the dynamics you said, but i still think his C4 range is wide enough to make an airbiscuit shove profitable compaired to his C4/C range

EDIT: just saw you did (which i love) and saw he had AJo and snapped you off, sick soul read by him, next time have 87dd and get there

I love the play, can't believe AJ called it off. On point, the change in equity isn't all that great between Ax type hands suited connectors/one gappers. Ax is going to play better against pairs while suited connectors will play better against Ax type hands.

Here shoves A2-A9:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.684% 69.58% 02.10% 13153707744 397318134.00 { 88+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 28.316% 26.21% 02.10% 4955492148 397318134.00 { A9s-A2s, A9o-A2o }

Hero shoves 65s-T9s & 64s-T8s:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.372% 67.10% 00.28% 4710375844 19431822.00 { 88+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 32.628% 32.35% 00.28% 2271206912 19431822.00 { T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+ }

Hero shoves 65s-T9s & 64s-T8s & 65o-T9o:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.221% 68.95% 00.27% 12080481640 47309142.00 { 88+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 30.779% 30.51% 00.27% 5345194604 47309142.00 { T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o }

Equity difference is only a 2-4% percent between Ax type hands and suited connectors/one gappers and offsuit connectors. Since we're 5-bet bluffing and hoping to take the pot down preflop, I don't think the small equity difference really matters. I'm equally comfortable 5bet bluffing with any of the above hands.

Edit: please let me thoughts on ranges. Wanted to exclude any broadway hands since those don't play well against any pairs or Ax hands.

Edit 2: Felt like running the full numbers. At this point in the hand you have 36,652 behind you and 19,501 (625 antes + 500 sb + 2000 dtrain + 5265 you + 11111 blony) in the pot. If you 5bet and win, your net gain will be 19,501 + 30,806 call from blony.

If called, cEV is the following:
Range 1: EV = -12,029
Range 2: EV = -8,279
Range 3: EV = -9,887

Assume villain folds X% of the time. For this a 5bet to be EV neutral villain needs to fold the following X% of the time:
Range 1: 61.8%
Range 2: 70.1%
Range 3: 66.3%

My statement earlier that the extra 2-4% equity doesn't matter isn't really true. Villain needs to fold a lot less often against the suited connector/one gapper range than against the Ax range.

 

Originally Posted by MarkFSU1

means he knows ur a spazz incapable of folding when obv crushed and looks like he was right

Didn't have any history with him or at this table for him to have that impression or I wouldn't have made the play. Thanks for the advice though, it was helpful.

Everyone else, thanks for taking the time to respond and help me out.

 

Originally Posted by MarkFSU1

youre just way overthinking this and its an easy fold even before you 3b. you have a garbage hand with no value, and theres going to be a ton better spots and situations to exploit then to start leveling yourself into punting of 40bb effective stacks with no history, gl tho

Thanks for going into more detail. Understand your point about punting off the 40bb stack, but curious why you say the initial 3b here is bad vs a player who has been active and r/f pre? What spots would we be looking to exploit as opposed to trying to pick up some chips here? I thought that 6 handed vs this opponent this was a pretty profitable spot, but you've obv had much more success than me so interested in your thoughts on this.

 

Originally Posted by herbstreet24

I think what mark is trying to say is that AX is really not a 3 betting hand in this spot, and def not a 5 bet 40bb shipping hand. As others have pointed, much better to do it with a hand like 910s. I also dont like tyson's math above because he is throwing like suited 3 gappers in there, which are also not great 3 betting hand and 5 bet jamming hands. Suited connectors play much better however. Against what I perceive his likely calling range 77+ A10s+ A10o+... 910s is 34%... while A6o for example is 26%... that is actually a huge disparity, which means villain has to fold a ton less for the play to be profitable...

I think the overall theme is to be aware of what types of hands u decide to 3 bet with, and what type of "air" u decide to 5 bet jam with, because all air is not created equal. Avoiding trouble situations like this one should help u avoid getting way too many chips in dominated in the future.

Makes sense. Thanks herbstreet

Sry I only glanced over ur numbers, but I did notice in the 2nd analysis even adding the 2 gappers we still run almost 33%, so much better than the 28ish % w/ Ax. I think its okay to 3 bet Ax here I guess, but Im always 3b/f to that 4 bet w/ Ax against essentially a min 4 bet from the BB with almost no reads... Given the fact we are so vulnerable to this type of play and we find ourselves in almost nowheresville with Ax, best to just flip that one in the muck w/ 40bbs imo and looks for spots where the dynamics are more in our favor..

lol i love poker in 2011

nh blony, nh you ul

(if his 4b/calling range is wide enough to include AJo, you shouldn't be 5betting Ax but I'm guessing you figured that out by now. that doesn't mean the 5bet was 'bad' in a vacuum, just that you misunderstood the dynamic)