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What's the best move?

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  1. dugums dugums is offline

    Posts: 25
    Joined: Nov 05

    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 9:38am)

    First off, this is a $200.00 heads up NLHE match with someone I consider a very good player. We have played each other alot over the past months and know each others games really well. This is not a game that I think of as a big source of income, I more play it because it is a challenge. Most of our hands play out like a game of chicken, so it's really important to trust yourself in this game. That being said, I ran into a hand that was really interesting to me last night.

    I change gears alot when I play but, in general, I play extremely loose and aggressive. This is even more true heads up (obv.) My opponent plays mostly TAG, but is capable of any move at any time. For the past 20 hands or so, I had taken over and just rolled over him by reraising every preflop and continuation bet I could. He showed alot of patience and let me take about a third of his chips. On the hand just before the one I am going to describe, he made a tremendous read (and was probably a little sick of me) by passively calling me down all the way to the river with a Q high to beat my busted straight draw. That was a really important hand for him because he actually ended up ahead in chips after that hand. Now, here's how it goes:

    Me: 1400 chips
    Him: 1600 chips
    Blinds 15/30
    I'm on the button with 67 and limp-in.
    My opponent raises to 95
    I call

    My opponent really only raised out of position if he had high cards.

    Flop A8J

    Not a very good flop for me. I'm thinking about folding as quickly as possible.

    My opponent bets 200. I find this bet very strange. It appears at first to be a small overbet (pot is 190) to protect a decent hand from getting drawn out on. I have a problem though... I've seen him make this bet to represent strength before when he was actually the one drawing... I decide right here to trust my instincts and to take the pot away from him. I go through in my head what hands he could be playing. I decide that the two strongest hands he could be playing are KQ or K10. This would fit the high cards I put him on. So if I am going to trust myself here, what is the best way to take down the pot? I decide that pushing over-the-top here would be ineffective. He has a really strong drawing hand, good odds and knows me well enough that he could probably figure out it is a bluff.

    I decide that I can take down the pot on the turn (he will still have great odds, but he has shown he doesn't like drawing to only one card and will still have plenty of chips to fold.)

    I call the 200 with the intention of betting/raising the turn if it is not a club, K, Q or 10.

    The turn comes 6

    This is a really good card for me. If I have put him on the right hand, I am now protected if he chooses to call with his draw (or if he decides K high is good.)

    He bets out only 250. This is a little scary in that it appears to be a value bet (pot is 590.) The good news is, if I have him on the right cards his fold equity is a little bit better than I thought it would be.

    So here's where I need your help. If I figure that I am about a 60% favorite here to win the hand, do I push in and exploit that edge? Do I call and control the size of the pot, knowing that if one of his cards comes, I can get away from the hand? And if his card doesn't come it is most likely going to go check-check and I will win a fairly sizable pot with a subpar hand.

    Please let me know what you think... Sorry for the long post...
  2. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 10:18am) in reply to dugums

    First off , the best move preflop would have been to fold , unless you decided to get creative with this player .

    On the turn , there would be 190 + 200 +200 + 250 = 840

    At this point , you have 1105 left on the turn . If you push all in , you'll win 840 about 60 % of the time . ( assume he only calls when he has you beat ).

    840* 0.6 = 504

    Now you'll lose 1105 close to 40 % of the time . Which is 1105* 0.4 = 442 . (notice that even if you're behind 40 % of the time , you still have outs on the river , so you won't lose exactly 40 % of the time but for simplicity we'll assume it's 40 % )

    504> 442 so if you're read is correct and you think you have the best hand about 60 % of the time , then pushing all in on the turn is marginally correct .
  3. dugums dugums is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 10:40am) in reply to jay_shark

    Good analysis. If pushing is marginally correct, Is a call in any way acceptable? As far as the preflop raise goes, I find it profitable with this player to call his raises (especially when the blinds make it affordable) because he only raises with certain types of hands. This gives me good information that I can use to get creative later in the hand. It seems counter-intuitive to call the raises because he only raises with better hands than mine, but so far it has been working out. As much respect as I have for his play, he sometimes has difficulty bluffing or holding onto a marginal hand. He makes up for it most of the time with his ability to exploit my loose play when he is really strong.
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  4. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 10:52am) in reply to dugums

    I don't like just calling the turn because you'll be last to act on the river and you won't have much fold equity on the hand . In other words , it will be tough for him to lay down the hand if you go over the top as he'll be getting good pot odds and he may even hit two pair on the river .

    If your read is correct and you suspect you have the best hand on the turn , I suggest you exploit that edge and push all in . If he folds about half the time , it's close to neutral EV .
  5. dugums dugums is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 11:22am) in reply to jay_shark

    Well as it turns out, I was about half right in my analysis of this hand. I pushed in on the turn. He thought for a little bit and decided to call.

    He turned over K10. So I made the right read there. And was very happy that I was able to put him on the right hand AND follow through. I was very happy about the way I played the hand until this morning, when I began thinking that there were some flaws.

    The whole point of trying to take this down on the turn was that he would ignore the odds and just look for a better spot. That did not happen.

    Remember, I had this play in my head before I had the pair. So if I hadn't hit the six on the turn and made this move anyway, I would have been in a lot of trouble. Even though I had the edge here, I was unhappy that I was wrong about how he would react. I think my loose and aggressive play up to that point had in fact made the call inevitable. Having the pair obviously made the play a whole lot easier to execute. But I think I overestimated my own play and did not take a step back to think about it. With the amount I had been pushing him around, I actually feel a weak/passive play may have been better here. I can still trust my read and call at the river if none of his cards come without risking all of my chips on a very small edge.

    BTW he hit a 10 on the river to win. I think he deserved to win the pot as he did not let my pressure get him out of a pot where he had fantastic odds. He might have even put me on a bluff and knew that even if he was wrong, he had outs. Either way it goes to show you just how important image is. It was probably a bit too fancy for me also....
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  6. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 11:30am) in reply to dugums

    You played it perfectly imo . On the turn , he has about 9 + 4 =13 outs that he can count on . there are 46 remaining cards in the deck and he would need pot odds of (46-13)/ 13 = 2.5: 1 .

    He didn't have those odds when you pushed all in . He was getting a little less than 2-1 on his call .
  7. dugums dugums is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2005 (12/14/2005 11:50am) in reply to jay_shark

    thanks jay- your analysis is always very helpful....
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